How could Republicans win without Ohio?

[Torie]

The thing about PA is that in 2012, there was a huge trend to the Pubs in much of suburban Philadelphia, not manifested in Ohio. The Lehigh Valley also trended Pub to a fair degree. So if that trend holds, and the Pubs continue to make inroads with more rural white working class voters in Western PA outside of Erie and Pittsburg, it may be that PA's PVI will become more Pub than Ohio's. The thing about Ohio is that the massive Dem trend, plus the population growth, in the Columbus metro area, has not been offset by the Pub trend in bits and pieces of SE Ohio, which is lightly populated, and the Cincinnati burbs, while heavily Pub, are not growing moreso. So Ohio does not have the equivalent of Philly suburbs that have trended Pub. At least that is the story for 2012. Stay tuned.

[ElectionsGuy]

The thing about PA is that in 2012, there was a huge trend to the Pubs in much of suburban Philadelphia, not manifested in Ohio. The Lehigh Valley also trended Pub to a fair degree. So if that trend holds, and the Pubs continue to make inroads with more rural white working class voters in Western PA outside of Erie and Pittsburg, it may be that PA's PVI will become more Pub than Ohio's. The thing about Ohio is that the massive Dem trend, plus the population growth, in the Columbus metro area, has not been offset by the Pub trend in bits and pieces of SE Ohio, which is lightly populated, and the Cincinnati burbs, while heavily Pub, are not growing moreso. So Ohio does not have the equivalent of Philly suburbs that have trended Pub. At least that is the story for 2012. Stay tuned.

Has suburban Philadelphia trended R? I've thought since the 80's that its trended D, offsetting the western part of the state trending R. Bucks seems to be trending R, but the rest of the counties aren't moving at all from what I've seen.

[Torie]

The thing about PA is that in 2012, there was a huge trend to the Pubs in much of suburban Philadelphia, not manifested in Ohio. The Lehigh Valley also trended Pub to a fair degree. So if that trend holds, and the Pubs continue to make inroads with more rural white working class voters in Western PA outside of Erie and Pittsburg, it may be that PA's PVI will become more Pub than Ohio's. The thing about Ohio is that the massive Dem trend, plus the population growth, in the Columbus metro area, has not been offset by the Pub trend in bits and pieces of SE Ohio, which is lightly populated, and the Cincinnati burbs, while heavily Pub, are not growing moreso. So Ohio does not have the equivalent of Philly suburbs that have trended Pub. At least that is the story for 2012. Stay tuned.

Has suburban Philadelphia trended R? I've thought since the 80's that its trended D, offsetting the western part of the state trending R. Bucks seems to be trending R, but the rest of the counties aren't moving at all from what I've seen.

What you posted was true up through 2008. But things changed in 2012.  The map above is the trend map for 2012. Trend means how counties moved more than the movement between the parties on a nationwide basis. Berks and Chester trended 5 points to the Pubs, Montco by 3 points, Bucks by 1.5 points, and Delaware moved the other way to the Dems by 1.5 points. So that averages out to about a 3 point trend move to the Pubs in 2012, and those burbs are worth 4 congressional districts, so it is a big chunk of the state as a whole. Philly trended to the Dems by a couple of points, but the vote was down there, so the margin for the Dems was about the same.  Granted the vote was down some in the state as a whole. Anyway, the Philly metro area moved Pub in the trend by a couple of points net. That is 6 congressional seats out of 18, or about a third of state.

The state as a whole moved about 2.5 points to the Pubs in trend. If it moves but about 0.75 points more to the Pubs in trend, PA will be more Pub than the nation.

[TJ in Oregon]

The thing about PA is that in 2012, there was a huge trend to the Pubs in much of suburban Philadelphia, not manifested in Ohio. The Lehigh Valley also trended Pub to a fair degree. So if that trend holds, and the Pubs continue to make inroads with more rural white working class voters in Western PA outside of Erie and Pittsburg, it may be that PA's PVI will become more Pub than Ohio's.

I can shed a little light on the Lehigh Valley since I've been living there for a couple months. The Lehigh Valley votes along the classic industrial management vs. blue collar lines with only a few wealthy white liberals, mostly in Bethlehem. It is still a rather industrial metro area, albeit a fairly well-off one. The Democrats win Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton proper, along with a few other working class suburbs, while the outlying areas vote 55-60% R on the presidential level. The Lehigh Valley is also a growing area for commuters to either New York or Philly who come here for a more affordable suburban lifestyle with the usual ammenities. The area is growing fast, including the inner city Dem nodes, but they're growing slower than the suburban areas.  So the net result is that the area is trending toward the Republicans, but not very fast. If the GOP could find a way to get Hispanic votes things would move in that direction faster.

The thing about Ohio is that the massive Dem trend, plus the population growth, in the Columbus metro area, has not been offset by the Pub trend in bits and pieces of SE Ohio, which is lightly populated, and the Cincinnati burbs, while heavily Pub, are not growing moreso. So Ohio does not have the equivalent of Philly suburbs that have trended Pub. At least that is the story for 2012. Stay tuned.

This is true but missing one key point, that the Dem trend in Columbus is being offset by population losses in the heavily Democratic parts of the state like inner city Cleveland, Youngstown, Lorain, etc. Indeed a large part of the reason why Columbus is trending toward the Dems is from Democrats moving from elsewhere in the state to Columbus. Their exodus hasn't made the industrial northern part of the state less Democratic percentage-wise, but it has made it a lower fraction of the state population.

[Torie]

I take your point TJ, and that must be why Ohio "only" tended by about 0.5% Dem, when the trend map is really butt ugly for Ohio from a Pub perspective. It must be because of the population stagnation of NE Ohio. But anyway, that is a 3 point trend differential between Ohio and PA. That is rather a big differential, and if it persists even in a very modulated form, PA will become more Pub than Ohio come 2016.

[TJ in Oregon]

I take your point TJ, and that must be why Ohio "only" tended by about 0.5% Dem, when the trend map is really butt ugly for Ohio from a Pub perspective. It must be because of the population stagnation of NE Ohio. But anyway, that is a 3 point trend differential between Ohio and PA. That is rather a big differential, and if it persists even in a very modulated form, PA will become more Pub than Ohio come 2016.

My previous point is half of why the OH trend map looks so awful for the Pubs. The other half is that McCain was a relatively good candidate for Ohio and Romney was a relatively poor candidate for Ohio. The Pub vote never cratered as bad in OH as it did nationally in the 2008 blowout, so the trend looks bad, even though Romney improved on McCain's numbers in most of the state.

While OH and PA are demographically similar for the most part, upscale suburban moderates are definitely more critical in PA than OH, and upscale surburban moderates were the main group Romney won back in 2012 who voted for Obama the first time. I think that part of it is a one-time deal rather than a long term trend. Unless the Pubs nominate Mittens again, I don't think we need to worry much about the Ohio trend continuing However, that's only one piece of the PA trend and the other is the Dems cratering in the western half of the state. I suspect that will continue for a few more years yet, as there is still some room left for them to fall in places like Johnstown and the valley towns along the western edge of the state.

So overall I would guess Ohio is due for a small reversion to the mean, a trend around R+0.5 and PA will continue its R trend but not linearly, only around R+1. That means OH will vote slightly to the right of the nation and PA right around the middle. Both are likely winnable by either party unless the election is a blowout.

[Torie]

The Pubs will certainly hope that you are right, that the Ohio malaise is due to Mittens malaise. I am not so sure. I suspect it is more about Ohio protectionism. Granted if the Pubs project more protectionism, that might "solve" that problem in Ohio, even as it anneals my move to the Dems, because protectionism is against everything I have believed most of my life, without any detours. Granted, flirting with protectionism, might be a good temporary public policy, if only to prove what an economic disaster it is, and give the US the cold shower about there being no painless short term fixes for its quite serious long term problem - the failure of its secondary educational system relatively speaking for those not fortunate enough to be part of the elite.

That is one reason I favor a parliamentary system, ala the UK. Let the party in power have its way, and if it doesn't work, toss them out, and repeal what they did - all of it if need be - without much fuss. Rather what we do, is not do much of anything, and if we do something, when a party accidentally gets the filibuster proof trifecta ala the Dems from 2008-2010, then it is very hard indeed to roll much of it back. That sucks. End of lecture!

[Mister Mets]

It has to be some combination of a close election in which a Republican ticket is weak in Ohio, and/ or a Democratic ticket is particularly strong.

Since Ohio is slightly more conservative than the rest of the nation, it is unlikely it'll go Democratic while Republicans flip states like Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania (which they'd need to get to 270, especially without Ohio.)

The one way this might happen is if Hillary picks Sherrod Brown to be her running mate, and it backfires nationally. It's an unlikely match as he's in his 60s.

In the future it could happen with a Democrat from Ohio on top of the ticket. But that also seems unlikely in 2020. Sherrod Brown is the only Ohioan currently in statewide office. The party's hope for the other seat is former Governor Ted Strickland, who will be in his mid-70s.