Bayh's numbers in Indiana look great...

[Defarge]

The thing that makes Bayh so attractive is that he will probably not lose as overwhelmingly as Kerry did in rural districts.  This will help tremendously across the nation, throwing states like MO, which honestly wasn't really a battleground state, into the mix.  So in states like Oregon, which does have, if not rural then semi-rural areas, Bayh will still probably be able to pull a victory.

[A18]

49% say they will vote for him in 2008 if he receives the nomination.  18% are undecided.  Im fairly confident he can pick up 2% of those 18% who are undecided.

His approval ratings are scary.  Almost as high as Lugar's.

That's before you factor in any competition, and before the mudslinging begins. Once they figure out they have a radical left-wing senator, he might even lose his seat.

[Defarge]

49% say they will vote for him in 2008 if he receives the nomination.  18% are undecided.  Im fairly confident he can pick up 2% of those 18% who are undecided.

His approval ratings are scary.  Almost as high as Lugar's.

That's before you factor in any competition, and before the mudslinging begins. Once they figure out they have a radical left-wing senator, he might even lose his seat.

This is exactly what the Republicans did to Hillary.  Take a moderate Democrat who could win a general election, and begin a mudslinging campaign years before the Democrat runs for president.  Thus, ten years later, Hillary Clinton is incapable of winning a general election.  And now you're doing the same thing to Bayh, sticking your fingers in your ears and saying "radical left wing senator" over and over.

[Moooooo]

That's before you factor in any competition, and before the mudslinging begins. Once they figure out they have a radical left-wing senator, he might even lose his seat.

Slinging mud at Bayh could backfire.  His approval ratings prove just how much Indiana residents like the man.  He is almost as popular as Republican Senator Richard Lugar.  He has held 3 elected offices in Indiana,  Secretary of State, Governor (2 terms), and Senator (2 terms).  The people of Indiana know where he stands on the issues and they are obviously happy with him.  So, I seriously doubt Indiana would put up with the GOP slinging mud at their hometown Hoosier boy.  Even if Bayh does not win Indiana.  He still forces the GOP to spend more money and time there than any other Democratic candidate.   I beleive Bayh would put the GOP on their heels in a lot of states.  It will defintiley not be an offensive election year like 2004.

[Rob]

Absolutely. I do think Bayh would do better in the south Portland suburbs and flip the important Clackamas County, which Kerry barely lost anyway. Marion County would probably be closer, although I doubt Bayh would flip it. How do you think he'd play in Linn County (Albany) and Jackson County (Medford/Ashland)?

I think he'll get slaughtered in Linn, and lose by a sizable margin in Jackson. Eastern Oregon will be a *bit* closer, but don't expect much; you'll still see a few counties over 70 percent Republican.

Still, he'll easily overcome that with Portland, Eugene, and Corvallis; and as was said before, he'll do better in the Portland suburbs than Kerry. Overall, an easy statewide victory.

[No more McShame]

Nominating Bayh after nominating Kerry would NOT lose Oregon. If anything, Bayh would improve in Oregon. Ask yourself who Oregonians are more likely to choose: a liberal from Massachusetts or a center-leftist from Indiana? In an instant, Oregon would choose the letter - in fact, Bayh is the kind of politician who would appeal to Oregon - sort of a populist morals, libertarian policy fellow. Portland, as well as the western side as a whole, would eat that up.

No, Bayh would not lose Oregon (unless Sen. Gordon Smith is the Republican nominee, right).  Portland and Eugene would certainly prefer Kerry and a liberal 3rd party would do well in those places.  He wouldn't lose Multnomah and Lane counties by any stretch but wouldn't get the proportion that Kerry received.  Bayh would own Washington County (W. Portland suburbs), as it's fiscally center-right and socially liberal.  The rest of the state tends to vote Republican, but, other than Clackamas County (where I grew up and the more conservative S. Portland suburbs) there are no areas that could come even close to matching the population of those three counties.  Unless the Republicans nominate someone from the more libertarian wing of the party, they can kiss Washington County and thus the state goodbye.

Absolutely. I do think Bayh would do better in the south Portland suburbs and flip the important Clackamas County, which Kerry barely lost anyway. Marion County would probably be closer, although I doubt Bayh would flip it. How do you think he'd play in Linn County (Albany) and Jackson County (Medford/Ashland)?

Clackamas is pretty conservate, it would depend on who the Republican nominee is if Bayh could flip it.  Unless it's changed since I've been there I don't see it.  Bayh would lose both Lynn and Jackson counties fairly handily, but do better than Kerry did.

[Reaganfan]

49% say they will vote for him in 2008 if he receives the nomination. 

THATS A BIG IF

[Moooooo]

THATS A BIG IF

Ummm, Ok?  It's a poll.  49% likely to vote for Bayh, 33% Not likely, 18% undecided.   The people were asked a question and that was their response.  Take it for what you want.  5 statewide victories in Indiana (all by fairly decisive margins).  70% approval rating.  One things for sure, I would'nt bet against Bayh.

[Alcon]

Nominating Bayh after nominating Kerry would NOT lose Oregon. If anything, Bayh would improve in Oregon. Ask yourself who Oregonians are more likely to choose: a liberal from Massachusetts or a center-leftist from Indiana? In an instant, Oregon would choose the letter - in fact, Bayh is the kind of politician who would appeal to Oregon - sort of a populist morals, libertarian policy fellow. Portland, as well as the western side as a whole, would eat that up.

No, Bayh would not lose Oregon (unless Sen. Gordon Smith is the Republican nominee, right).  Portland and Eugene would certainly prefer Kerry and a liberal 3rd party would do well in those places.  He wouldn't lose Multnomah and Lane counties by any stretch but wouldn't get the proportion that Kerry received.  Bayh would own Washington County (W. Portland suburbs), as it's fiscally center-right and socially liberal.  The rest of the state tends to vote Republican, but, other than Clackamas County (where I grew up and the more conservative S. Portland suburbs) there are no areas that could come even close to matching the population of those three counties.  Unless the Republicans nominate someone from the more libertarian wing of the party, they can kiss Washington County and thus the state goodbye.

Absolutely. I do think Bayh would do better in the south Portland suburbs and flip the important Clackamas County, which Kerry barely lost anyway. Marion County would probably be closer, although I doubt Bayh would flip it. How do you think he'd play in Linn County (Albany) and Jackson County (Medford/Ashland)?

Clackamas is pretty conservate, it would depend on who the Republican nominee is if Bayh could flip it.  Unless it's changed since I've been there I don't see it.  Bayh would lose both Lynn and Jackson counties fairly handily, but do better than Kerry did.

Clackamus County can't be that conservative, can it? It only voted Bush 50-49.

I don't expect him to win in Linn or Jackson Counties (hell no!), but I would think he would play much better than Kerry in both areas, and could make them reasonably closer? Although Linn County is hard to tell, with Albany, which I gather is rather populist.

In any case, Naso, yes, it's a big if. However, we're just trying to prove to the Democratic Party that Bayh would win to increase his chance, not assuming he'll get the nod.

[Rob]

I don't expect him to win in Linn or Jackson Counties (hell no!), but I would think he would play much better than Kerry in both areas, and could make them reasonably closer? Although Linn County is hard to tell, with Albany, which I gather is rather populist.

Bayh will lose by at least 15 points in Linn County- don't overestimate the populism. It's quite solid for the GOP. Admittedly, Clinton lost by only 3 points in 1996, but that was with Perot polling well over 11 percent.

[No more McShame]

Clackamus County can't be that conservative, can it? It only voted Bush 50-49.

Well, it was 6 years ago when I was last there.  There has been a lot of growth there.  Anyhoo, it's still MUCH more conservative than Washington County.  I would look for more long term trends than the 2004 election to determine if it has grown more liberal in the last six years.

[bgwah]

Oregon is not in danger of going Republican. It may not vote Democrat by huge margins, but it seems to have a solid Democratic base that is just enough for them to win most elections. It has consistently remained a lean-democrat state for over a decade now.

And Portland wouldn't eat up a Midwestern-values populist. Portland is liberal to the core. If the Democrats lose the "anybody but Bush (or anybody but another Republican for 2008)" crowd, they will be in danger of losing a small but signifcant chunk of the liberal vote to a 3rd party candidate.

[Rob]

And Portland wouldn't eat up a Midwestern-values populist. Portland is liberal to the core. If the Democrats lose the "anybody but Bush (or anybody but another Republican for 2008)" crowd, they will be in danger of losing a small but signifcant chunk of the liberal vote to a 3rd party candidate.

Definitely. Bayh may do slightly better in the GOP strongholds, but he'll do slightly worse in the liberal areas.

I could see Oregon going Republican in a GOP victory that's something like 54-46 nationwide, but in a normal election, it's pretty solidly Democratic.

[bgwah]

And Portland wouldn't eat up a Midwestern-values populist. Portland is liberal to the core. If the Democrats lose the "anybody but Bush (or anybody but another Republican for 2008)" crowd, they will be in danger of losing a small but signifcant chunk of the liberal vote to a 3rd party candidate.

Definitely. Bayh may do slightly better in the GOP strongholds, but he'll do slightly worse in the liberal areas.

I could see Oregon going Republican in a GOP victory that's something like 54-46 nationwide, but in a normal election, it's pretty solidly Democratic.

If Bayh truly did appeal to populist-type people who mostly vote Republican now, do you think Bayh could do as well as Dukakis did in rural counties? Dukakis won one eastern county, I think. He won 3.5 counties in Eastern Washington.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Bayh truly did appeal to populist-type people who mostly vote Republican now, do you think Bayh could do as well as Dukakis did in rural counties? Dukakis won one eastern county, I think. He won 3.5 counties in Eastern Washington.

Weirdly, he ran much worse in New England than any Democrat since, despite that he was from there.

[Rob]

And Portland wouldn't eat up a Midwestern-values populist. Portland is liberal to the core. If the Democrats lose the "anybody but Bush (or anybody but another Republican for 2008)" crowd, they will be in danger of losing a small but signifcant chunk of the liberal vote to a 3rd party candidate.

Definitely. Bayh may do slightly better in the GOP strongholds, but he'll do slightly worse in the liberal areas.

I could see Oregon going Republican in a GOP victory that's something like 54-46 nationwide, but in a normal election, it's pretty solidly Democratic.

If Bayh truly did appeal to populist-type people who mostly vote Republican now, do you think Bayh could do as well as Dukakis did in rural counties? Dukakis won one eastern county, I think. He won 3.5 counties in Eastern Washington.

Bayh would carry Wasco County (the eastern county that voted for Dukakis); Kerry lost it by only a narrow margin. He would also break 40 percent in many of the Bush landslide counties, but he won't actually carry any.

[Speed of Sound]

I'm about 80% certain that Bayh would win Indiana in the general.

i seriously doubt it -if Mark Warner is unlikely to carry his own state if he is the Democratic presidential nominee 

I have to disagree. Mark Warner's ratings are really high, too and I think that he's better at picking up homestate votes than Edwards.