A Sanders-Carson election will scramble the political system. Sanders has a strong appeal to rural white voters in the North. Ben Carson does not. In this match up, I think Sanders would do quite well in states like Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota and he would overperform in Minnesota. His prairie populism will appeal in these Canada-adjacent areas--places that have supported candidates with similar ideologies from George McGovern to Byron Dorgan to Brian Schweitzer.
There is a big moderate bloc of GOP voters in many of these states who are culturally inclined to vote for candidates like Reagan and Bush II. When people criticized these candidates and Presidents as out of touch, the working/middle class white voters in these areas related to the candidate, not to the critics. If Ben Carson says whackadoodle things, these voters would likely not find him as relatable, in part because of his race combined with the fact that he really is an out-of-touch urban elitist.
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