Maine

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

it appears many Republicans here think Bush can win Maine, according to many prediction maps. I just want to know why you all think that. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are as conservative as it gets in Maine. Bush I came in third there in 1992. How anyone can consider the state in play is beyond me.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bush can forget Maine.

[ShapeShifter]

Let them waste money on Maine for all I care.

[angus]

it appears many Republicans here think Bush can win Maine, according to many prediction maps. I just want to know why you all think that. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are as conservative as it gets in Maine. Bush I came in third there in 1992. How anyone can consider the state in play is beyond me.

yes, bush should consider maine a swing state.  as should kerry.  the difference last time was about five percent.  it's not all bloodworm dealers and lobster fishing grunts and backwoods hunters up there in that part of what Commonwealth Magazine calls sagebrush country.   Some Mainers are pretty wealthy.  Those that continue to elect Snowe and Collins, for example.   Bush needs only to get his numbers up about 2.5% there to defeat Kerry.  A difficult task, which, in the end, puts maine in Kerry Country on my map.  But either one of them would be wise to consider it fertile ground for campaign spending.

[Rococo4]

I think there is an outside chance, but yeah I would Maine leans Kerry.  If Maine gets close, Kerry can re-focus on being on the most liberal member of the United States Senate.

[Lunar]

Wasn't there a poll just a while back that had Kerry at +14?

[nclib]

Maine is an interesting state since it can split electoral votes. Bush winning the 2nd district is possible (though I wouldn't bet on it), but Bush likely won't win the statewide vote. Bush winning all 4 electoral votes (i.e. also winning the 1st district) would be highly unlikely.

[Giant Saguaro]

Nope, no chance. Bush has the same chance in Maine that Kerry has in Oklahoma or Nebraska.

[angus]

good point nclib.  don't think it has happened in maine or nebraska for a long time though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think they ever have. But Nader took 5% last time, he's not getting that much this time, assuming he's even on the ballot. And yes, there was such a poll, and it included Nader taking 5%. Anyone who thinks Bush can win Maine is seriously deluded. What makes you think the folks who elect Snowe and Collins will vote for Bush? In Alabama those two would be considered communists.

Also Kerry is not the most liberal member of the Senate, that report only turned out that way because he missed so many votes. Find one vote where Kerry voted to the left of Kennedy.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Maine is a swing-ish state but there are certainly plenty of other staes that would go Bush before it would.  I think the hope stems from the idea that one of the congressional districts might swing Bush - but both seem to be rather evenly leaning Kerry.

[angus]

 haven't seen a district breakdown poll yet.  does vorlon have one?

for what its worth, R registration net down more than D from 2000.

[ShapeShifter]

haven't seen a district breakdown poll yet.  does vorlon have one?

for what its worth, R registration net down more than D from 2000.

How do you get registration numbers for a state?

[Platypus]

Democrat.

If they lose Maine, they lose everything but DC.

[WalterMitty]

kerry will win maine.

[klrbzzz]

Paint Maine red!!!

[angus]

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In another thread Vorlon put up a bit of Stratetic Services polling data showing Kerry with a 13% advantage over Bush in Maine.  This is nearly as large as Bush's advantage in places like Louisiana and Indiana.  

The registration by party numbers are usually available from the Secretary of State's office.  Maine's claims to keep state records back to 1639.  Wow, that's just 32 years after Jamestown was founded, 30 years after Spain established its first Governor of Texas, 13 years after a group of Nederlanders founded Nieuw Amsterdam, nine years after Boston was founded, and three years after the WASPs founded their exclusive Harvard College (later Harvard University) in Cambridge.

http://www.state.me.us/sos/arc/

Follow the links to Voter Registration.  They give a breakdown of Republican, Democrat, Other, and Unenrolled (aka DTS in CA, no-party in IA, Unaffiliated in some states, Independent elsewhere, etc.)  You'll have to import it into a spreadsheet to get a total, as it apparently isn't compiled in one place yet.  Vorlon listed registrations by party for several states in another thread, but it did not include Maine.  He also put a link to a large database on that thread somewhere.

[Gustaf]

Maine is lean Dem. And neither Maine nor Nebraska has ever split their EV. And Bush only came in 3rd in Maine by  a margin of 0.05% in 1992.

[Nation]

Angus, ever been to Bar Harbor or Acadia National Park? Lovely.


And yeah, I'd say Maine is safe Democrat, just like Louisiana is safe Republican.

[angus]

Bar Harbor, but not Acadia.  Been to Kenebunkport too.  Oh, and the night Princess Diana was killed, we were in the Capitol City Motel in Augusta, Maine.  Maine is pretty.  Nevermind that all those Bostonians look down on mainers as backwoods bumpkins.  It's a great place to cast a fly, or just kick back with a cold one.

This month's National Geographic has a piece on Wicasset.

[Nation]

Ah, I was at Acadia and sorts with an ex-girlfriend. They made us evacuate the coast, so we camped out on the inland. It rained like hell, we couldn't leave the tent, and she cried. I'm pretty sure the relationship was officially over by the car ride back to Cohoes/Troy, NY.

It really is a beautiful area, though. A lot of liberals and conservatives, but the striking point was that they were all REALLY NICE folks.

Ate some lobstah' for dinnah, too. Nice state.

[angus]

Ah, I was at Acadia and sorts with an ex-girlfriend. They made us evacuate the coast, so we camped out on the inland. It rained like hell, we couldn't leave the tent, and she cried. I'm pretty sure the relationship was officially over by the car ride back to Cohoes/Troy, NY.

It really is a beautiful area, though. A lot of liberals and conservatives, but the striking point was that they were all REALLY NICE folks.

Ate some lobstah' for dinnah, too. Nice state.

Damn good lobster at Mabel's Crab Claw Restaurant, Kennebunkport, ME.  My ole' lady makes a mean lobster with black bean and garlic, too.

I broke up with a girl on a plane once from phoenix to Boston.  Bad idea.  I should have waited till we were much closer to boston.   Live and learn.  

[muon2]

Bar Harbor, but not Acadia.  Been to Kenebunkport too.  Oh, and the night Princess Diana was killed, we were in the Capitol City Motel in Augusta, Maine.  Maine is pretty.  Nevermind that all those Bostonians look down on mainers as backwoods bumpkins.  It's a great place to cast a fly, or just kick back with a cold one.

This month's National Geographic has a piece on Wicasset.

Spent a lot of time "Down East" 20 years ago. Spent a day trip to Kennebunkport last summer. Still a wonderful state.