What if... it's a major five way race
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  What if... it's a major five way race
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Author Topic: What if... it's a major five way race  (Read 1957 times)
Young Conservative
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« on: December 02, 2015, 12:16:41 AM »

Let's say It's:
- Trump/Carson
- Bush/Kasich
- Clinton/ O'Malley
- Sanders/ Warren
- Webb/ Johnson

What does the map look like? (I don't know how to make maps if you want to explain that too that'd be awesome)
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Penelope
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2015, 02:28:43 AM »

Go here to make maps: https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

Click "Show Map Link", and paste the result in your post.

As for the scenario, my first guess is something like this. I assume that Trump drops early enough to secure ballot access to all states, except perhaps Oklahoma. It'd be a Democratic blowout in both electoral votes and the popular vote.



Clinton/O'Malley - 48% (484 electoral votes)
Trump/Carson - 26% (33 electoral votes)
Bush/Kasich - 19% (21 electoral votes)
Sanders/Warren - 5%
Webb/Johnson - 1%

Others - 1%
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Free Bird
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2015, 05:27:54 AM »

Go here to make maps: https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

Click "Show Map Link", and paste the result in your post.

As for the scenario, my first guess is something like this. I assume that Trump drops early enough to secure ballot access to all states, except perhaps Oklahoma. It'd be a Democratic blowout in both electoral votes and the popular vote.



Clinton/O'Malley - 48% (484 electoral votes)
Trump/Carson - 26% (33 electoral votes)
Bush/Kasich - 19% (21 electoral votes)
Sanders/Warren - 5%
Webb/Johnson - 1%

Others - 1%


>Two Democratic spoilers
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Former Senator Haslam2020
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2015, 05:40:35 PM »



Sec. Hillary Clinton/Gov. Martin O'Malley 434 Electoral Votes 40.1%
CEO Donald Trump/Surg. Ben Carson 65 Electoral Votes 20.9%
Gov. Jeb Bush/Gov. John Kasich 21 Electoral Votes 21.4%
Sen. Jim Webb/Gov. Gary Johnson 18 Electoral Votes 7.4%

Sen. Bernie Sanders/Sen. Elizabeth Warren 6 Electoral Votes 8.1%
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2015, 05:42:00 PM »

Clinton - 39%
Trump - 30%
Bush - 18%
Sanders - 11%
Webb - 2%
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Ariosto
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2015, 04:15:13 PM »

The problem here is that each of the candidates presented have their own constituency or group that would be willing to support them.

I don't believe I need to mention Clinton or Bush, who would be pushed by establishment types within their respective parties with the cash flow that comes with it, the former having the additional significant benefit of the support of minorities such as African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans. That alone virtually guarantees Clinton victory unless for some reason they don't turn out, which is unlikely.

Donald Trump appeals more as a Populist and so while he pulls largely from Republicans and Independents, he also manages to pull into his coalition some Democrats who find his message appealing. There is also the benefit of being able to self-fund his campaign and having what has been virtually proven as a dedicated electoral floor, at least on the Republican side. Therefore he has the potential to attain a larger voter base then Bush, but he won't be able to move into a competitive position against Clinton, at least electorally.

Bernie Sanders appeals exclusively to more liberal white voters which does not provide a winning coalition, but those same voters have shown themselves to now be very dedicated to Sander's candidacy in the form of volunteerism and small figure donations. He is liable to also negate any advantage Clinton might have against Bush or Trump based on the division of Republican voters, his own pull almost exclusively being among Democratic voters. However his strength would lie principally in the Northeast and Pacific West, nor would it be electorally impressive beyond Vermont.

Jim Webb is the middle man who would be trying to appeal to Independents and other centrist voters who are disenchanted with the Democratic and Republican parties. There isn't liable to be any real enthusiasm behind his candidacy, but the minds behind Unity '08 and Americans Elect would probably throw their support to him, guaranteeing him at least funding for a national campaign. Ultimately though he would be dwarfed by the other four candidates, not having any committed voting bloc of his own.
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