Jeb Bush vs. Mitt Romney Primary

[BaconBacon96]

This would be an epic clash of massive proportions. Two cashed up establishment candidates battling out for the heart and soul of the GOP, with the Tea Party and Christian Right inevitably nipping at their heels. The stakes would be incredibly high and I can see it getting messy. There's also a serious chance in this scenario of a conservative challenger sweeping and winning the nomination over a split establishment vote.

I'm wondering who'd win what states from among the two. In all seriousness this time, discuss with maps!

[Mehmentum]

Don't forget Christie!

[BaconBacon96]

Reviving this now that Romney's making moves.

I think Romney's gonna cast himself to the right of Bush, attacking him on immigration in particular, while also opposing the non-establishment candidates that he'll say won't be able to win a general election.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I would be voting for Clinton (or Libertarian). Depending on who else is on the ballot, I may actually vote in the D Primary (also dependent on where I am living).

Blue: Romney
Red: Bush

I'd probably say the map is something like this. Hard to say for sure - yes, I think Romney would position himself to the right, but Jeb Bush still has that southern type appeal. He is leading all the southern states right now, and if he can't win those, then I don't see him contending with Romney seriously.

Also interesting is that both candidates have connections to different parts of the country.

Bush - Florida, Texas, Northeast (plus a base of what has been referred to as "country club" GOPers)
Romney - Mass/NH, Michigan, Mormons

Indiana, Virginia, Oregon, Ohio, Penn, Conn, Hawaii, and Arizona were all pretty hard to pick. Illinois and Missouri somewhat tough too. It's not a very obvious map.

[Mr. Morden]

People say that McCain 2008 and Romney 2012 show that "moderates" win GOP presidential primaries.  Well, those races show that establishment candidates with GOP presidential primaries, but McCain 2008 and Romney 2012 were both "moderates who ran as conservatives".  They moved to protect their right flanks in the primaries (and the general election for that matter), and the early messaging from Bush doesn't yet indicate that he's willing to do that.  Is he actually going to talk about income inequality, immigration, and Common Core during the campaign?  If so, then I presume he'll lose.

[Mister Mets]

They're too similar to be the last two standing.

They're sixty-something businessmen turned politicians, with fathers who had significant political accomplishments, who lost their first bids for public office in states their fathers were not elected to, and who won their last elections for Governor in 2002.

It's most likely that one of them will have dropped out by South Carolina. That might leave the other as the establishment pick, fighting it out with Rand Paul and/ or a more traditional conservative. Unless both lose the establishment bracket to Christie.

One unlikely, but conceivable, scenario has Romney winning New Hampshire and Bush winning South Carolina, but I have no idea where the election would go from there.

[Frodo]

It will be an interesting year-and-a-half for the Republican Party should Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney battle it out for establishment support and more pragmatic GOP voters, with Rand Paul and Ted Cruz splitting the Tea Party between them, and Mike Huckabee sitting on the sidelines with his social/religious conservative base...  

[Mehmentum]

When this thread was made, I was certain that Romney wouldn't run and was skeptical about Bush running.   I was absolutely sure that if one ran, the other wouldn't.

Now it looks very likely that both candidates will run...

[© tweed]

there would be a third, insurgent/'Tea Party' candidate.  most likely Paul, or Cruz.  Bush and Romney are both from the money wing rather than the cultural wing of the party, and Jeb can't pull off the Southerner schtick like GWB did.

I though Romney would only get in if Jeb declined.  he must really want it bad.  more than Gore ever did, and Gore was a career politician.