Southern White Democrats To be Extinct by 2016

[KCDem]

Jim Hood is going to lose next year and Gwen Graham is probably a 1-term wonder. Has the VRA finally caught up with the party of LBJ? Discuss.

[PAK Man]

Gwen Graham defeated an incumbent Republican congressman on a terrible night for Democrats (by a small margin, yes, but she still defeated him). To me, that alone shows her strength and ability to win in even a Republican-leaning district. I can see her sticking around for a bit.

Is there any indication that Jim Hood is going to lose? I thought he was fairy popular. Even in 2011, he won by pretty much the same margin Phil Bryant did (They both won about 61-39). I really don't see him going anywhere unless he's done something to anger voters that I'm not aware of.

[KCDem]

Gwen Graham defeated an incumbent Republican congressman on a terrible night for Democrats (by a small margin, yes, but she still defeated him). To me, that alone shows her strength and ability to win in even a Republican-leaning district. I can see her sticking around for a bit.

Is there any indication that Jim Hood is going to lose? I thought he was fairy popular. Even in 2011, he won by pretty much the same margin Phil Bryant did (They both won about 61-39). I really don't see him going anywhere unless he's done something to anger voters that I'm not aware of.

Mark Warner was also decently popular until Gillespie ran a million ads that made Warner=Obama. That's all Jim Hood's opponent has to do and he'll be toast.

[PAK Man]

I don't really think you can compare Warner with Hood though. For one, it's apparent that Democratic turnout was way down this cycle. A lot of Democrats probably stayed home because they thought Warner would be fine, which of course turned out to be a mistake.

Also, you're comparing a federal race to a state race. States are more than willing to elect members opposite of their political lean to state offices. Why do you think, while Pat Quinn was losing in Illinois, AG Lisa Madigan and SoS Jesse White were winning easily? Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka won a fairly close race, and the open Treasurer's seat was within 1 point (ultimately going to the Republican Tom Cross).

I think it's way too early to declare Jim Hood dead in the water.

[KCDem]

I don't really think you can compare Warner with Hood though. For one, it's apparent that Democratic turnout was way down this cycle. A lot of Democrats probably stayed home because they thought Warner would be fine, which of course turned out to be a mistake.

Also, you're comparing a federal race to a state race. States are more than willing to elect members opposite of their political lean to state offices. Why do you think, while Pat Quinn was losing in Illinois, AG Lisa Madigan and SoS Jesse White were winning easily? Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka won a fairly close race, and the open Treasurer's seat was within 1 point (ultimately going to the Republican Tom Cross).

I think it's way too early to declare Jim Hood dead in the water.

What about all the down ballot races in Arkansas this cycle though? Slaughter.