party id of the 2014 electorate according fox news exit poll

[Umengus]

D:36 %
R: 36 %
I: 28 %

(in 2010: D 35, R35, I 29)

The gop wins by 4 (51-47). In 2010: by 7 (51-44)

[King]

Umengus, I hope this doesn't mean you'll be spamming every 2016 poll with complaints if it is D+5 or D+6.

Please tell me you've learned that lesson?

[Umengus]

Umengus, I hope this doesn't mean you'll be spamming every 2016 poll with complaints if it is D+5 or D+6.

Please tell me you've learned that lesson?

D+5 or D+6 is possible  on 2016 election day. But unlikely.

[King]

So you learned absolutely nothing. Congrats.

[Umengus]

So you learned absolutely nothing. Congrats.

[Smash255]

Republicans have generally had an advantage with midterm turnout compared to Presidential turnout.  That is nothing new.  However, at this point I think  the Dems have a clear structural advantage (and even without Obama, though granted it reamins to be seen) in Presidential races, and the GOP has it in midterms.

[Umengus]

Republicans have generally had an advantage with midterm turnout compared to Presidential turnout.  That is nothing new.  However, at this point I think  the Dems have a clear structural advantage (and even without Obama, though granted it reamins to be seen) in Presidential races, and the GOP has it in midterms.

agree but it will be harder for dems with Clinton on the ticket than with Obama.

[King]

Republicans have generally had an advantage with midterm turnout compared to Presidential turnout.  That is nothing new.  However, at this point I think  the Dems have a clear structural advantage (and even without Obama, though granted it reamins to be seen) in Presidential races, and the GOP has it in midterms.

agree but it will be harder for dems with Clinton on the ticket than with Obama.

I'm getting 2011 flashbacks.

[Mogrovejo]

Republicans have generally had an advantage with midterm turnout compared to Presidential turnout.  That is nothing new.  However, at this point I think  the Dems have a clear structural advantage (and even without Obama, though granted it reamins to be seen) in Presidential races, and the GOP has it in midterms.

agree but it will be harder for dems with Clinton on the ticket than with Obama.

It'll be very exciting to see if minorities turnout and margins in presidential elections hold without Obama at the top of the ticket. I think any claims, one way or the other, at this point, are merely baseless conjectures. Nobody knows.

[King]

Obama did not bring out minorities to vote. Minorities grew in population size. The greatest increase 2004 to 2008/12 was not among blacks but Latinos  and Asians. They are just as non-black as white people and have no reason to turnout because of Obama.

They will show up in 2016.

[Mogrovejo]

Obama did not bring out minorities to vote. Minorities grew in population size. Black turnout rate. The greatest increase 2004 to 2008/12 was not among blacks but Latinos  and Asians.

Sure they did, but the point wasn't about their absolute numbers or share of the electorate but the groups turnout rates.

Black turnout rate/(Democratic margin):
2004 - 60.3 (+77)
2008 - 65.2 (+91)
2012 - 66.2 (+87)

Hispanic:
2004 - 47.1 (+18)
2008 - 49.9 (+36)
2012 - 48 (+44)

Asian:
2004 - 44.6 (+12)
2008 - 47 (+27)
2012 - 47.3 (+47)

(Pew & exit polls)

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Why? Obama being from a minority group himself was probably a factor (I don't think it's only about black vs non-black); as well as his ability to inspire young voters - minority groups are disproportionately young.

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Maybe -as I said, I'm agnostic- but for now that's merely speculation. Just a couple of days ago there were articles written by very smart people (at least smarter than I am), claiming Democrats, based on early voting returns, were finally converting minorities into higher frequency voters and suggesting polls were once again biased against democratic. In the end, all that GOTV hype was mostly about getting AA older women to vote early and the cannibalization theory was correct. That is the same type of conjecture.