Predict the number of Republican House seats from January, 2015 on
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  Predict the number of Republican House seats from January, 2015 on		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How many House seats will the Grand Old Party collect after Election Day?
#1
Less than 218 (they'll be the minority)		  
#2
218-229		  
#3
230-239		  
#4
240-249		  
#5
250-259		  
#6
260-269		  
#7
270 or more		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Predict the number of Republican House seats from January, 2015 on  (Read 728 times)
eric82oslo
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« on: October 10, 2014, 12:34:31 AM »
I went through this Wikipedia page the other day - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014#Alabama - and found out (or rather counted) that there are currently 240 House seats that have a Republican lean of at least R +1%. Likewise there are 186 House seats that have at least a D +1% lean. The remaining 9 House seats are characterized as toss-ups or EVEN according to the Cook Political Report. All in all, this makes the drawing of the current House districts a net +54 seats in favor of Republicans, before or without taking the toss-up districts into account.

So my question then becomes: How many House seats will the Republican party net during these elections?
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2014, 12:45:31 AM »
230-239, although the lower half of 240-249 is not out of the question.
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20RP12
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2014, 10:16:54 AM »
I'll say 236, albeit very begrudgingly Sad
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Mogrovejo
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2014, 11:34:17 AM »
I project party gains to be within a D+3 and R+14 interval.

To bet in a single number, 241 GOP seats.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2014, 01:54:50 PM »
230-239
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2014, 02:00:12 PM »
235-245 would be my best estimate. I am almost 100% sure it will be between 230-250.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2014, 03:11:12 PM »
This will be one of the most boring years for the HoR, the R's will probably net pickup very few seats, so it stays 230-239
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2014, 03:18:21 PM »
Voted 240-249, but "235-245" is probably a better answer.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2014, 08:18:55 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on October 10, 2014, 03:18:21 PM
Voted 240-249, but "235-245" is probably a better answer.
Yeah, they basically make up their 2012 losses.
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Vega
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2014, 10:48:41 PM »
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2014, 11:58:41 PM »
I'll go with 240-249.

The party currently has 233. A gain of seven seats seems more likely than not.
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2014, 02:12:54 AM »
240s
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Bigby
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2014, 03:18:25 AM »
Somewhere in the 240's.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2014, 03:19:54 AM »
243
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2014, 07:47:24 AM »
Running my simulations so far have it at about 240.  So 240-249
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