2004: Bush/Cheney v. Lieberman/McCain v. Dean/Chafee

[Tayya]

Scenario: Clark never enters the race and Kerry drops out for unknown reasons in late 2003. Lieberman narrowly wins Iowa thanks to Dean splitting the vote with stronger Edwards and Gephardt campaigns. Dean rebounds in NH, and it's a tight race between the grassroots and the establishment, with Lieberman narrowly winning in the end. He picks John McCain as his running mate. In response to the hawkish ticket, Dean forms an independent bid with Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee.

Bush looks certain to win in August, but suddenly news turn grim in Iraq as insurgents kill hundreds of American soldiers. In addition, the economy is slowing down considerably, and by the 9/11 anniversary Bush has an approval rating of 42/56 and a negative trend. Making matters even worse, a hurricane hits New Orleans in late September with the Bush administration completely bungling the response.

Does Bush still win?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Maybe something like this? It overestimates the strength of the center and Lieberman/McCain's crossover appeal, but with the October surprise of sorts occurring, maybe a coalition of moderates could see Lieberman to victory. It's nowhere near realistic, just a possibility.

332-182-24

[Tayya]

Maybe something like this? It overestimates the strength of the center and Lieberman/McCain's crossover appeal, but with the October surprise of sorts occurring, maybe a coalition of moderates could see Lieberman to victory. It's nowhere near realistic, just a possibility.

332-182-24

A plausible path to victory, though I could also imagine Bush losing Louisiana if Katrina happened two months and a half before Election Day (though on the other hand, Democrats would be disproportionately displaced) as well as other Clinton states if Dean is weak enough there.

Assuming Bush would have negative coattails, a deadlocked EC could be very popcorntastic.

[tmthforu94]

I think Dean would be able to get enough of a following to peel off some electoral votes in this scenario, especially with a worsened situation in Iraq and the two main tickets both supporting the war. Bush is still able to narrowly win the popular vote and the election is sent to the House, which votes for Bush.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

332 - D
203 - R
3 - I

Kinda similar to Cathcon's map. I think in this scenario, it's kind of impossible for the out party to not win, even with Lieberman being a weak candidate and Dean drawing away votes. This was also near the height of McCain's popularity.

[Tayya]

332 - D
203 - R
3 - I

Kinda similar to Cathcon's map. I think in this scenario, it's kind of impossible for the out party to not win, even with Lieberman being a weak candidate and Dean drawing away votes. This was also near the height of McCain's popularity.

The Republicans would definitely not cross ~46-47% if even that, but the question is how big a part of the Democratic coalition the Deaniacs were. Then again, this is four years after 2000, which likely dampens Dean's maximum vote share a fair deal. It would depend on how far to the right Lieberman runs, I guess.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Lieberman/McCain  43%   314
Bush/Cheney           40%   220
Dean/Chafee            16%       4