Cruz or Paul? Who runs?

[Del Tachi]

I can't imagine a scenario in which both of these candidates run in 2016 as they are the only candidates with high-ish name recognition able to build upon the Tea Party base.

Who's more likely to run?  Which one defers to the other?

I think Cruz will defer to Paul, but I think Paul's more interested in getting back into the Senate.  So I vote Cruz. 

[Never]

Paul is probably more likely to run, but I don't see either either man deferring to the other.

[King]

Paul would have to give up his seat if he were the nominee. Cruz is more likely.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Paul would have to give up his seat if he were the nominee. Cruz is more likely.

Well, having seat up for reelection usually prevents many potential candidates from running, but on the other hand Paul may figure out that since he won't have an easy time getting reelected (yes, I know it's Kentucky, but he's not the strongest kind of incumbent), then why not to go for the gold? (Kind of like John Edwards in 2004).

We can't also rule out Kentucky adopting its version of "Lyndon Law" to allow Rand to run simultaneously for President and for reelection thought that would be risky politically.

[King]

Paul would have to give up his seat if he were the nominee. Cruz is more likely.

Well, having seat up for reelection usually prevents many potential candidates from running, but on the other hand Paul may figure out that since he won't have an easy time getting reelected (yes, I know it's Kentucky, but he's not the strongest kind of incumbent), then why not to go for the gold? (Kind of like John Edwards in 2004).

We can't also rule out Kentucky adopting its version of "Lyndon Law" to allow Rand to run simultaneously for President and for reelection thought that would be risky politically.

Paul's fairly popular in KY, although so are the Clintons and it might bring out Democrats.

I'd like my chances more of keeping the Senate seat and moving up in GOP leadership than beating Hillary for the Presidency.

[Maistre]

If I was Paul, I'd run for President. Make some big speeches, big fundraisers (make sure to spend 70% on 'administrative expenses') and basically milk my dad's fan base for all it's worth. After the campaign, write some books, and watch the money fly in.

So, sort of like his dad...

[IceSpear]

If I was Paul, I'd run for President. Make some big speeches, big fundraisers (make sure to spend 70% on 'administrative expenses') and basically milk my dad's fan base for all it's worth. After the campaign, write some books, and watch the money fly in.

So, sort of like his dad...

Am I the only one who finds it disturbing that a large amount of our presidential candidates are only running to sell books?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Paul would have to give up his seat if he were the nominee. Cruz is more likely.

Well, having seat up for reelection usually prevents many potential candidates from running, but on the other hand Paul may figure out that since he won't have an easy time getting reelected (yes, I know it's Kentucky, but he's not the strongest kind of incumbent), then why not to go for the gold? (Kind of like John Edwards in 2004).

We can't also rule out Kentucky adopting its version of "Lyndon Law" to allow Rand to run simultaneously for President and for reelection thought that would be risky politically.

Paul's fairly popular in KY, although so are the Clintons and it might bring out Democrats.

I think we overestimate Hillary's strength in states such as KY. While she'd undoubtedly perform stronger than Obama in the region, we can't assume that, by virtue of being named "Clinton", she'd make it competitive. A lot of things has changed since 1990s. Those stated started trending more and more Republican, especially on the presidential level, even before we've heard of Obama.

Although I agree that, while it may not be enough to flip the state, Hillary could help the downballot in KY, which can make life tad more difficult for Rand.

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Naturally getting reelected would be far easier than running in a crowded field for the nomination.