Canada with runoffs

[Sol]

What would happen? Would the left be assured a majority next election? What ridings would have different results in 2011?

[Citizen Hats]

http://www.orphanedvoter.ca/interactive-tool/

this is an estimate based on EKOS second choice data from 2011

[MaxQue]

What would happen? Would the left be assured a majority next election? What ridings would have different results in 2011?

I don't think than Liberals are left-wing. Center-something, depending of the person (center-left to center-right). It's their place since the decades. Sure, they are closer of NDP, but it's perhaps telling more about Conservatives than about Liberals.

It was different during the era of center-right PC.

[DC Al Fine]

Short term: Yes, the left would be assured a majority.

Long term: Eventually things would shift around to roughly 50/50. The Tories would almost certainly move to the centre, and the NDP might drift left.

http://www.orphanedvoter.ca/interactive-tool/

this is an estimate based on EKOS second choice data from 2011

The results for English Canada look fine, but it looks like they assumed that no federalist voter would make the BQ their second choice. That doesn't seem right.

[Citizen Hats]

they did redistribute some votes to the BQ, but in the vast number of cases the BQ was second round with the NDP. The NDP contains most of the soft nationalists already, and the redistributed Tories and mostly Liberals are less likely to be BQ sympathetic, though it still doesn't seem right