Hypothetical 2016 Kentucky Senate Race

[JRP1994]

Vote!

[RogueBeaver]

Paul/Paul.

[LeBron]

I mean, I like Paul and he's quite arguably the best KY Republican Senator since Cooper, but I would vote for Beshear. It would be epic if Democrats did the unthinkable of getting a Grimes/Beshear delegation from Kentucky winning both Senate seats in a matter of two years.

Beshear would be unlikely to win, though. Democratic Governors in red states have terrible track records of getting elected to the Senate afterwards (Ronnie Musgrove - MS, Bob Kerrey - NE, Jim Hunt - NC, David Walters - OK, Mike Sullivan - WY, etc.) and 2016 looks to be the year of a lot of those Governor ----> Senate losses with the likes of Beshear and Beebe. Paul is too popular among his base in Kentucky to get thrown out and unless Paul opts out of running again and runs for President, then that's the only way Beshear can win. KYConnect is popular, yes, and Beshear is popular himself, but he'll be easily connectable to Obama and Senate elections are more polarizing, so......

[bballrox4717]

Paul would win against Beshear (and any Democrat for that matter), but the whole dual Senate/Presidential ballot question is still really murky. I don't think Beshear would run in any circumstance since he's pretty old anyways. It's more likely that the party puts up a decent candidate like Edelen, who's young but still behind Conway and Grimes in the pecking order for executive office in Kentucky, in the hopes that Republicans nominate a disaster candidate like Bevin if Paul is not on the Senate ballot.

[henster]

Paul will be forced to retire in 2016 it will probably be Massie v. Edelen. I don't know why people keep bringing up Beshear he'd be 71 and I think he's pretty much done with running for anything after his term.

[Maxwell]

Paul would win, but Beshear would get as close as a KY Dem gets. If he runs for re-election, he's a pretty safe incumbent.

[ElectionsGuy]

Paul/Paul.

[NHLiberal]

I'd support Beshear and he'd have a good chance (would probably start out as Lean R, depending on the national mood), but there's no way he'll run

I'm rooting for Edelen for Governor in 2015, but in the off chance that Grimes loses in 2014, she could be good for Gov in 2015 and Edelen against Paul in 2016 (I doubt Grimes could be competitive against Rand). There's also Jack Conway to think about. I can't imagine he'd be competitive against Paul in a 2016 rematch but could have a chance for Governor I guess. Is he considered damaged goods or do people still like him a lot?

Republicans seem to have a pretty weak bench for Governor in 2015.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Paul/Paul, but it would be pretty close.

[Orser67]

Democratic Governors in red states have terrible track records of getting elected to the Senate afterwards (Ronnie Musgrove - MS, Bob Kerrey - NE, Jim Hunt - NC, David Walters - OK, Mike Sullivan - WY, etc.)

I'd be interested to see a full list of how red state Democratic governors have done in Senate elections. My knee-jerk reaction is that these governors are probably still much better than any other available candidate, and are (often) the only hope of taking a Senate seat in many red states. And yet, the only recent name that comes to mind is Jeanne Shaheen, and NH isn't a a red state.

Anyway, Beshear's 51-33 approval rating (Jan 2014: PPP) is better than Paul's 49-40 rating, and Beshear has been elected twice statewide compared to Paul's one election in a GOP wave year. Additionally, Paul seems more focused on national politics than on Kentucky politics, which could hurt him imo. So I'd say Beshear would have the advantage.

[NHLiberal]

Democratic Governors in red states have terrible track records of getting elected to the Senate afterwards (Ronnie Musgrove - MS, Bob Kerrey - NE, Jim Hunt - NC, David Walters - OK, Mike Sullivan - WY, etc.)

I'd be interested to see a full list of how red state Democratic governors have done in Senate elections. My knee-jerk reaction is that these governors are probably still much better than any other available candidate, and are (often) the only hope of taking a Senate seat in many red states. And yet, the only recent name that comes to mind is Jeanne Shaheen, and NH isn't a a red state.

Anyway, Beshear's 51-33 approval rating (Jan 2014: PPP) is better than Paul's 49-40 rating, and Beshear has been elected twice statewide compared to Paul's one election in a GOP wave year. Additionally, Paul seems more focused on national politics than on Kentucky politics, which could hurt him imo. So I'd say Beshear would have the advantage.

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Q6 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ................................................ 42%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

No, he wouldn't.

I think it would start out as Lean R depending on the national mood.

[MATTROSE94]

I would probably vote for Steve Beshear, even though Rand Paul is arguably one of the best Republican's currently in office now. As was said earlier in this thread, Paul would probably start off with an advantage over Beshear, but the race could tighten up depending on the national mood.