NH-1: Guinta officially in for a rematch

[Morning in Atlas]

I'm mobile so no quote, but he's announcing tomorrow.

Leans D. Guinta got a lot of flack for being strictly anti abortion and generally isn't the type of politician that can succeed in NH. Copy that with ethics problems and you have great news for Carol Shea-Porter. I'm guessing about a 5-7 point hold.

Also of note, he drew Paul Ryan in a rally next month. Dan Innis is also running, but his only known contribution was to Jackie Cilley, a Democratic candidate in the 2012 gubernatorial race who was to the left of Governor Hassan. He'd make it a race but there's no way he makes it past the primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What happened the last time Shea Porter faced a former incumbent she defeated?

[NewYorkExpress]

Tossup/Tilt D... Guinta is still a stronger opponent than anyone else Shea-Porter could face.

[Morning in Atlas]

Tossup/Tilt D... Guinta is still a stronger opponent than anyone else Shea-Porter could face.

Chris Sununu would have been the strongest. He's got the name that's helped him survive in a D+2 district and he's generally more moderate. Innis would be good too (this district favors moderate Republicans) but with his vote for the liberal candidate in the Democratic primary he'll get stomped before the general. You forget Guinta has some unresolved ethics issues that Bradley or any other possible candidate didn't have, and the fact that he's to the right of Todd Akin on abortion doesn't work either. I'm calling a win similar to 2008 margins.

[Morning in Atlas]

Innis is in.

Like I said, he's a nonfactor because of the whole Cilley thing. He's economically conservative but socially liberal, basically a less crazy version of Rubens. However, there is no way in hell that someone who voted for a candidate in the Democratic primary but the candidate whose only main difference from Hassan is supporting an income tax. He's dead in the water.

[Morning in Atlas]

The Unskewed Polls guy alleges voter fraud in NH. Frank Guinta is backing him up.

This guy is f***ing nuts.