Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[LeBron]

Alabama - Safe R (with or without another Shelby run)

Alaska - Safe R (Assuming Murkowski runs again)

Arizona - Tossup/Tilt R (I don't think a McCain retirement matters as much as a potential Giffords,
Carmona or Sinema run would be)

Arkansas - Safe R (Boozman is perhaps the least controversial GOP Senator out there now and there will be no serious Democrat that will try contesting this)

California - Safe D (Crossing my fingers for another Boxer run)

Colorado - Leans D (If he can win in 2010, he certainly can in 2016)

Connecticut - Safe D (It should be fun to see if Linda runs again )

Florida - Tossup (Assuming Rubio runs for re-election, this seat will be very vulnerable with a Hillary run nationally and a Sink run here)

Georgia - Likely R (Only because Isakson's intentions aren't known yet)

Hawaii - Safe D (With either Schatz or Hanabusa)

Idaho - Safe R (Even in a bizarre scenario where Andrus runs, Crapo would still hold on)

Illinois - Tossup/Tilt D (Assuming Kirk runs, Madigan would still have a small advantage)

Indiana - Likely R (Since Bayh is very possible, but only a matter of whether he goes after Coats or Pence)

Iowa - Likely R (It would probably be safe with Grassley, but he still might change his mind on a run)

Kansas - Safe R (Moran isn't going anywhere anytime soon)

Kentucky - Likely R (It's safe with Paul, but if that KY bill doesn't pass, then he's got to make up his mind)

Louisiana - Safe R (I'm unsure whether or not Vitter could seek re-election if he loses in 2015, but barring a Mitch Landrieu run, it's safe Republican)

Maryland - Safe D (It would be nice to see Mikulski run again)

Missouri - Tossup (It's lean R w/o a Nixon run, but he's term-limited in 2016 so I don't see why he wouldn't challenge Blunt)

Nevada - Leans D (Sandoval probably won't run and Heck might be voted out this year, so the NV GOP is left hanging)

New Hampshire - Tossup (A Tea Party primary plus a strong Dem challenger will make this very competitive)

New York - Safe D (Hopefully, Schumer retires)

North Carolina - Leans R (Though it could become a tossup if Burr retires)

North Dakota - Safe R (Hoeven is beyond safe)

Ohio - Tossup (Portman is being overestimated and Dems have plenty of strong candidates that could run here and with a strong Hillary showing in OH, this will be a bellwether to watch)

Oklahoma - Safe R (No matter who wins the special)

Oregon - Safe D (Because it's Wyden)

Pennsylvania - Tossup (Toomey really needs to start lightening up his record or else he'll go down just like Santorum)

South Carolina - Safe R (I'd personally like to see Scott retire just since the GOP will use him to show how open they are to African American rights)

South Dakota - Safe R (Lean R if Thune retires because then that would be Sandlin's chance)

Utah - Safe R (If Matheson runs, lean R, but it seems he's eyeing the Governorship)

Vermont - Safe D (Preferably, I'd like to see Leahy run for another term)

Washington - Safe D (It would be fun to see another Dino Rossi run )

Wisconsin - Tossup (Though would lean D with Feingold)

That would be D+3, with the ones in bolded black too close to call.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Assuming Madigan and Kane runs, D+2 seats in IL and PA.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ohio - Tossup

Um... no.

I think your also underrating Ayotte and Rubio. They should at least start with some advantage now that they're incumbents. Their approvals are constant and there in states that go either way

South Carolina - Safe R (I'd personally like to see Scott retire just since the GOP will use him to show how open they are to African American rights)

Why would he retire? He's young and just got in the Senate. Who cares about the fact that he's black.

I'll give you credit on a decent Kentucky rating though. Different from the good amount of dems who think Kentucky is a "toss-up", which is just unthinkable.

[publicunofficial]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Safe R
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Lean R
Georgia - Safe R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Toss-Up
Indiana - Likely R
Iowa - Safe R
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Likely R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Lean R
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Toss-Up
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Toss-Up
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Safe D
Wisconsin - Toss-Up


These ratings are a starting position, before any retirement announcements (Grassley, Coats, Isakso) or surprisingly strong challengers (Beebe in AR, Nixon in MO, Sandoval in NV).

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

South Carolina - Safe R (I'd personally like to see Scott retire just since the GOP will use him to show how open they are to African American rights)

Why would he retire? He's young and just got in the Senate. Who cares about the fact that he's black.

I'll give you credit on a decent Kentucky rating though. Different from the good amount of dems who think Kentucky is a "toss-up", which is just unthinkable.
[/quote]
I'd consider it a tossup in the circumstance that Paul runs for president (he cannot simultaneously run for president and be on the KY senate ballot) and that a popular term limited governor runs for senate.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

color=blue]Alabama - Safe R (it's Alabama)

Alaska - Safe R (Assuming Murkowski runs again)

Arizona - Tossup/Tilt R (no way Giffords runs, so it's Mark Kelly (most likely) or Carmona.)

Arkansas - Safe R (MAYBE Beebe can win if Clinton runs, but Halter isn't getting this done at all.)[/color]

California - Safe D (would love to see Harris, Newsom, or Solis run here, but Boxer is fine too)

Colorado - Leans D (it's Colorado, and the GOP's best candidate is already in for 2014)

Connecticut - Safe D (no matter what)

Florida - Tossup/Tilt R (Once again, FL Dems)

Georgia - Likely R (Barrow could win this against Isakson, but I'm pretty sure he runs)

Hawaii - Safe D (With either Schatz or Hanabusa)

Idaho - Safe R (lol)

Illinois - Tossup/Tilt D (It's Illinois. Kirk is too economically conservative for the state)

Indiana - Likely R (Only because of Bayh.)

Iowa - Likely R (Grassley seems in it for life)

Kansas - Safe R (hahaha)

Kentucky - Lean R (safe with Rand)

Louisiana - Safe R (unless one of the Landrieus runs here)

Maryland - Safe D (I'd prefer O'Malley to succeed Mikulski)

Missouri - Tossup (It's lean R w/o a Nixon/Clinton run, but he's term-limited in 2016 so I don't see why he wouldn't challenge Blunt)

Nevada - Toss-up (Sandoval sounds 50-50 on entering)

New Hampshire - Tossup/Tilt R - Hassan or Kuster could make this competitive, and Ayotte is more socially conservative than expected.

New York - Safe D (eww schumer)

North Carolina - Toss-up/Tilt R (It's NC, but with Democrats lining up to take McCrory down, there's an outside chance Burr falls)

North Dakota - Safe R (Hoeven is beyond safe)

Ohio - Leans R (Watch this race. Republicans will be working their asses off to prop him up, plus social moderation helps

Oklahoma - Safe R (loll)

Oregon - Safe D (Wyden is Oregon at its finest.)

Pennsylvania - Tossup (Toomey, to his credit, does work with Dems sometime, but his shutdown vote completely undoes his work on background checks)

South Carolina - Safe R (lol)

South Dakota - Safe R (Thune ain't retiring)

Utah - Safe R (Likely R with Matheson, and even then I'm not sure if he has a chance)

Vermont - Safe D (I'm a Leahy fan but wouldn't mind another Bernie in there)

Washington - Safe D (This isn't 2010.)

Wisconsin - Tossup (Leans D with Feingold, but Johnson isn't someone to underestimate by any means)

[henster]

The polls I've seen from Ohio (Quinnipac/PPP) has shown Portman with not so impressive approval rating and a lot of people not knowing much about him at all. Let's say Tim Ryan decides to run against Portman he's a competent and effective campaigner who would have an even shot at defeating Portman in a Presidential year. Let's assume that Madigan runs in IL and Kane runs in PA I can't see how either Kirk and Toomey overcome either of them.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Safe R
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Likely R
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup/Tilt R
Indiana - Safe R
Iowa - Likely R
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Lean R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Likely R
Nevada - Likely D
New Hampshire - Lean R
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Likely R
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Tossup/Tilt R
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Safe D
Wisconsin - Safe D

[windjammer]

Seriously, it's too early.

[SWE]

Seriously, it's too early.

It's never too early for political analysis!

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Seriously, it's too early.

It's never too early for political analysis!

I hate pundits who are already on cable news talking about 2016, but then I turn around and do this on my own time...

[windjammer]

color=blue]Alabama - Safe R (it's Alabama)

Alaska - Safe R (Assuming Murkowski runs again)

Arizona - Tossup/Tilt R (no way Giffords runs, so it's Mark Kelly (most likely) or Carmona.)

Arkansas - Safe R (MAYBE Beebe can win if Clinton runs, but Halter isn't getting this done at all.)[/color]

California - Safe D (would love to see Harris, Newsom, or Solis run here, but Boxer is fine too)

Colorado - Leans D (it's Colorado, and the GOP's best candidate is already in for 2014)

Connecticut - Safe D (no matter what)

Florida - Tossup/Tilt R (Once again, FL Dems)

Georgia - Likely R (Barrow could win this against Isakson, but I'm pretty sure he runs)

Hawaii - Safe D (With either Schatz or Hanabusa)

Idaho - Safe R (lol)

Illinois - Tossup/Tilt D (It's Illinois. Kirk is too economically conservative for the state)

Indiana - Likely R (Only because of Bayh.)

Iowa - Likely R (Grassley seems in it for life)

Kansas - Safe R (hahaha)

Kentucky - Lean R (safe with Rand)

Louisiana - Safe R (unless one of the Landrieus runs here)

Maryland - Safe D (I'd prefer O'Malley to succeed Mikulski)

Missouri - Tossup (It's lean R w/o a Nixon/Clinton run, but he's term-limited in 2016 so I don't see why he wouldn't challenge Blunt)

Nevada - Toss-up (Sandoval sounds 50-50 on entering)

New Hampshire - Tossup/Tilt R - Hassan or Kuster could make this competitive, and Ayotte is more socially conservative than expected.

New York - Safe D (eww schumer)

North Carolina - Toss-up/Tilt R (It's NC, but with Democrats lining up to take McCrory down, there's an outside chance Burr falls)

North Dakota - Safe R (Hoeven is beyond safe)

Ohio - Leans R (Watch this race. Republicans will be working their asses off to prop him up, plus social moderation helps

Oklahoma - Safe R (loll)

Oregon - Safe D (Wyden is Oregon at its finest.)

Pennsylvania - Tossup (Toomey, to his credit, does work with Dems sometime, but his shutdown vote completely undoes his work on background checks)

South Carolina - Safe R (lol)

South Dakota - Safe R (Thune ain't retiring)

Utah - Safe R (Likely R with Matheson, and even then I'm not sure if he has a chance)

Vermont - Safe D (I'm a Leahy fan but wouldn't mind another Bernie in there)

Washington - Safe D (This isn't 2010.)

Wisconsin - Tossup (Leans D with Feingold, but Johnson isn't someone to underestimate by any means)

Well, once again we agree Sawx on predictions .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tammy Duckworth and Feingold would go hand and hand with a Hillary Clinton two pt victory 51-49 over any GOP opponent.

[SWE]

Ohio - Tossup

Um... no.

I think your also underrating Ayotte and Rubio. They should at least start with some advantage now that they're incumbents. Their approvals are constant and there in states that go either way

I agree, Ayotte's approvals have been constantly underwater

[Suburbia]

color=blue]Alabama - Safe R (it's Alabama)

Alaska - Safe R (Assuming Murkowski runs again)

Arizona - Tossup/Tilt R (no way Giffords runs, so it's Mark Kelly (most likely) or Carmona.)

Arkansas - Safe R (MAYBE Beebe can win if Clinton runs, but Halter isn't getting this done at all.)[/color]

California - Safe D (would love to see Harris, Newsom, or Solis run here, but Boxer is fine too)

Colorado - Leans D (it's Colorado, and the GOP's best candidate is already in for 2014)

Connecticut - Safe D (no matter what)

Florida - Tossup/Tilt R (Once again, FL Dems)

Georgia - Likely R (Barrow could win this against Isakson, but I'm pretty sure he runs)

Hawaii - Safe D (With either Schatz or Hanabusa)

Idaho - Safe R (lol)

Illinois - Tossup/Tilt D (It's Illinois. Kirk is too economically conservative for the state)

Indiana - Likely R (Only because of Bayh.)

Iowa - Likely R (Grassley seems in it for life)

Kansas - Safe R (hahaha)

Kentucky - Lean R (safe with Rand)

Louisiana - Safe R (unless one of the Landrieus runs here)

Maryland - Safe D (I'd prefer O'Malley to succeed Mikulski)

Missouri - Tossup (It's lean R w/o a Nixon/Clinton run, but he's term-limited in 2016 so I don't see why he wouldn't challenge Blunt)

Nevada - Toss-up (Sandoval sounds 50-50 on entering)

New Hampshire - Tossup/Tilt R - Hassan or Kuster could make this competitive, and Ayotte is more socially conservative than expected.

New York - Safe D (eww schumer)

North Carolina - Toss-up/Tilt R (It's NC, but with Democrats lining up to take McCrory down, there's an outside chance Burr falls)

North Dakota - Safe R (Hoeven is beyond safe)

Ohio - Leans R (Watch this race. Republicans will be working their asses off to prop him up, plus social moderation helps

Oklahoma - Safe R (loll)

Oregon - Safe D (Wyden is Oregon at its finest.)

Pennsylvania - Tossup (Toomey, to his credit, does work with Dems sometime, but his shutdown vote completely undoes his work on background checks)

South Carolina - Safe R (lol)

South Dakota - Safe R (Thune ain't retiring)

Utah - Safe R (Likely R with Matheson, and even then I'm not sure if he has a chance)

Vermont - Safe D (I'm a Leahy fan but wouldn't mind another Bernie in there)

Washington - Safe D (This isn't 2010.)

Wisconsin - Tossup (Leans D with Feingold, but Johnson isn't someone to underestimate by any means)

Well, once again we agree Sawx on predictions .

I would say this:
Safe GOP seats:
Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota (if Thune is not on for national ticket), North Dakota, South Carolina, Idaho
Likely GOP seats:
Utah, Oklahoma, Georgia, Arizona, Arkansas (if Boozman retires)
Lean GOP seats
Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, Kentucky, North Carolina, Colorado (if John Elway runs)
Tossup Seats
New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Colorado (if Elway runs, Bennet is in trouble), Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri (if Gov. Jay Nixon runs)
Safe Democratic Seats
New York, Hawaii, California, Maryland, Vermont, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington
Lean Democratic Seats
Illinois (Kirk still faces problems, I see Giannoulias running again and winning), Wisconsin (if Feingold runs, Johnson's done)

[moderatevoter]

Hold it. I mean this question seriously, since I'm not sure, but you actually think Elway would beat Bennet? That's the first I've ever heard that idea.

[Orser67]

Completely safe:
Alabama - Safe R
California - Safe D
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Kansas - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Oklahoma - Safe R
South Carolina - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D

Alaska - Likely R
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Likely R
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Very Likely D
Florida - Lean R
Georgia - Very Likely R
Illinois - Lean D
Indiana - Likely R
Iowa - Likely R
Kentucky - Lean R
Louisiana - Likely R
Missouri - Likely R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Lean R
North Carolina - Lean R
North Dakota - Very Likely R
Ohio - Lean R
Oregon - Very Likely D
Pennsylvania - Lean R
South Dakota - Very Likely R
Utah - Very Likely R
Washington - Very Likely D
Wisconsin - Toss-Up

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Likely R
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Likely R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Toss-Up
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Toss-Up
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Indiana - Safe R
Iowa - Likely R
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Lean R
Nevada - Toss-Up
New Hampshire - Lean R
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Lean R
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Lean D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Likely D
Wisconsin - Lean D

[bballrox4717]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - ?: This one could get really interesting considering Murkowski's popularity with Democrats and unpopularity with Republicans
Arizona - Tilt R: McCain is unpopular and could retire anyways
Arkansas - Likely R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Tilt D: Bennet has incumbent advantage in presidential year that has Clinton leading so far
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Lean R (I see no evidence that Rubio is in real danger)
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup: Kirk is going to give this a hell of fight
Indiana - Safe R
Iowa - Likely R: Grassley is running again right?
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Tilt R: This is a race if Nixon gets in.
Nevada - Tilt D: Could change if Sandoval runs or updated polling, but for now this rating makes the most sense given the climate
New Hampshire - Lean R: I don't really see where Ayotte is in danger either
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Tilt R: The right candidate makes this a potential race
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Tilt R: Portman isn't as popular as he was before, but he still has incumbent advantage
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Tossup/Tilt R: Toomey isn't going to go quietly but Dems have talent in PA
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Likely D
Wisconsin - Tossup

There are 3 clear pickup opportunities for Dems in Illinois, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Expanded opportunities in a poor Republican year are possible in Arizona, Missouri, and North Carolina. Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida seem like fools gold with the Republican talent and lack of Democratic talent there.

In a good Republican year, they can make up for Tea Party mess ups in Colorado and Nevada, but not much else.

[moderatevoter]

I think Toomey is definitely going to put up a fight, but the Pennsylvania Democratic base isn't particularly impressive - particularly with Kathleen Kane in trouble. Toomey can beat Sestak again, provided the environment is not like 2008.

Iowa - Last I heard, Grassley plans on running again.

New Hampshire - I agree it's Lean R for now, but moves to Tossup if Hassan gets in. I think Ayotte can run a few percentage points ahead of the top of the ticket.

[windjammer]

I think Toomey is definitely going to put up a fight, but the Pennsylvania Democratic base isn't particularly impressive - particularly with Kathleen Kane in trouble. Toomey can beat Sestak again, provided the environment is not like 2008.

Iowa - Last I heard, Grassley plans on running again.

New Hampshire - I agree it's Lean R for now, but moves to Tossup if Hassan gets in. I think Ayotte can run a few percentage points ahead of the top of the ticket.

Toomey just won by 2 points against Sestak in 2010. Considering the rep wave, that's not impressive at all.
Toomey is the definition of "generic republican", so I guess my rating would lean rep. But if the dems win the 2016 presidential election by a decent margin, Toomey is toast.

[Maxwell]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Likely R
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Likely R
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup/Tilt D
Indiana - Safe R
Iowa - Likely R
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Likely R
Nevada - Toss-up/Tilt D with Sandoval, Lean D anyone else
New Hampshire - Toss-up/Tilt R
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Lean R
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Toss-Up/Tilt R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Lean R
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Safe D
Wisconsin - Lean D

[SWE]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Likely R
Arizona - Tossup (Lean D if McCain runs, Lean R if he retires)
Arkansas - Likely R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Likely R
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup/Tilt D
Indiana - Safe R
Iowa - Likely R
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Likely R
Nevada - Toss-up with Sandoval, Lean D anyone else
New Hampshire - Toss-up/Tilt D
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Lean R
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Lean R
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Likely R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Safe D
Wisconsin - Lean D with Feingold, Tossup with Kind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Competitive seats

IL Duckworth def Kirk
WI Kind def Johnson
CO Bennett def gen GOP
Pa Sestak def Toomey
FL Murphy def West

D +4

[henster]

Think people are underestimating Sestak he held Toomey to a 2 point victory in one of the biggest Republican waves since 1994. This despite the fact that Sestak had to face a very competitive primary which he was a underdog in and that drained a ton of his own resources yet he still pulled 49% of the vote on ED. If he got 49% of the vote in an electorate much older, whiter, & conservative than PA usually then imagine how he would do in a Presidential electorate. Toomey is by no means broadly popular in PA his approval ratings have always been in the mid to low 40s not impressive for a Republican in a blue state.