2014: the year of the surprises?

[windjammer]

Discuss

[The Other Castro]

Since this is in the Gubernatorial thread, here's what I'm surprised by in just those races:
Alaska- Independent/Democratic fusion ticket and competitive
Illinois- The Quinn comeback
New York- Teachout embarrassing Cuomo in the primary
New Mexico/Oklahoma- Supposed closeness in some polling
Kansas- Brownback getting brownbacked (Lief style)
Pennsylvania- Corbett losing by THAT much

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MA - Coakley going from like a 95% chance of victory when this year began, to like a 48% chance of victory now.
KS - The fact that it's competitive. Even if Brownback closes strong, he's not going to get the double digit margin of victory that republicans almost always get in KS.
OK/ID - The fact that these are remotely competitive.
NV - The fact that Sandoval essentially gets to run unopposed.
OH - Fitzgerald being Lee Fisher 2.0
PA - Wolf having a strong possibility of outperforming Rendell '06. Keep in mind PPP's first poll of this race (Jan. 2013) was 41/29 Corbett. Now, Corbett will be hard-pressed to even reach 40%, and Wolf should cross 60%. It is really amazing how much this race has changed.
AK - Indy/Dem Fusion ticket
SC - Haley having the possibility of winning by double digits, even though she's running against the same guy who held her to a 4 point win in 2010.
NH - Hassan nearing John Lynch margins.
CO - Tancredo losing the primary.
NY - Teachout. Enough Said.
MN - Kline/Paulson/Coleman all refusing to run

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Here's a few that may have surprised some people, but didn't surprise me at all:

Competitiveness of GA Gov.
Wendy Davis not getting anywhere in TX
NE Gov not being competitive at all

[Maxwell]

Fitzgerald may do worse than Lee Fischer He may get his own category of candidate failure pretty soon.

[KCDem]

Mary Fallin winning by less than 10 points. s

[IceSpear]

MA - Coakley going from like a 95% chance of victory when this year began, to like a 48% chance of victory now.
KS - The fact that it's competitive. Even if Brownback closes strong, he's not going to get the double digit margin of victory that republicans almost always get in KS.
OK/ID - The fact that these are remotely competitive.
NV - The fact that Sandoval essentially gets to run unopposed.
OH - Fitzgerald being Lee Fisher 2.0
PA - Wolf having a strong possibility of outperforming Rendell '06. Keep in mind PPP's first poll of this race (Jan. 2013) was 41/29 Corbett. Now, Corbett will be hard-pressed to even reach 40%, and Wolf should cross 60%. It is really amazing how much this race has changed.
AK - Indy/Dem Fusion ticket
SC - Haley having the possibility of winning by double digits, even though she's running against the same guy who held her to a 4 point win in 2010.
NH - Hassan nearing John Lynch margins.
CO - Tancredo losing the primary.
NY - Teachout. Enough Said.
MN - Kline/Paulson/Coleman all refusing to run

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Here's a few that may have surprised some people, but didn't surprise me at all:

Competitiveness of GA Gov.
Wendy Davis not getting anywhere in TX
NE Gov not being competitive at all

I'd be pretty surprised if Corbett doesn't crack 40% in the end. The reason he was leading by double digits in that poll was because at that point "Tom Wolf" was the same as "Some Dude", the dynamics of the race never really changed.

Speaking of this, not to get all Peggy Noonan, but I've noticed that there's not a single Corbett yard sign (that I've seen so far) in my town. My town went 52-48 for Corbett in 2010. There's plenty of signs for the Republican state representative and the Republican running for state senate though.