ECV's 2020 Redistricting: Part 1 -- A 10 District Arizona

[Emperor Charles V]

Hey everyone. I know I haven't posted here in a while but today I want to share with you something I created using the wonderful Dave's Redistricting App. Basically, it's a map of Arizona with 10 districts and a Republican gerrymander, to fit in with a (semi-alternate) future timeline I'm making. I know the population of Arizona would be distributed differently in 2020 than in 2010 but the map serves as a rough estimate to where the districts will go.

The result of the map is seven safe Republican districts and three safe Democratic districts. Two of the Democrats are in Hispanic-majority districts (one similar to Raul Grijalva's current district and the other similar to Ed Pastor's current district). The other one is a white majority Tucson-based district drawn for Mark Kelly, the astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords. My main goal in making the map was it to be compatible with my timeline which it is.

Here's the congressional delegation of Arizona before redistricting:

AZ-1 Adam Kwasman (R)
AZ-2 Mark Kelly (D)
AZ-3 Raul Grijalva (D)
AZ-4 Paul Gosar (R)
AZ-5 Kelly Townsend (R)
AZ-6 David Schweikert (R)
AZ-7 Ruben Gallego (D)
AZ-8 Steve Montenegro (R)
AZ-9 Meghan McCain (R)

In my TL, this year, Adam Kwasman defeats Ann Kirkpatrick though Ron Barber and Kyrsten Sinema narrowly survive in their own districts. Ruben Gallego wins Ed Pastor's district. In 2016, Matt Salmon, Trent Franks and Kyrsten Sinema all retire to run for Senate. Salmon loses to Franks in the primary who narrowly loses to Sinema in the general election. Salmon is succeeded by State Rep. Kelly Townsend (R), Franks by State Rep. and his former aide Steve Montenegro (R) and Sinema by Tempe Mayor and former Rep. Harry Mitchell's son Mark Mitchell (D). 2018 is a Republican wave year seeing the defeat of Mitchell (whose father lost in another wave year) to none other than Meghan McCain. Republicans also pick up the 2nd which is won by Ethan Orr following the retirement of Ron Barber. In 2020 Orr who is called out for being a "right-wing extremist" and dogged by an ethics scandal loses to Democrat Mark Kelly in a year where Christine Jones, the popular Republican governor of Arizona wins the state, district and general election in a landslide. I'll give you a second to process that.

After 2022, Arizona's delegation looks like this (a change of 6R-3D to 7R-3D). Grijalva retires and is replaced by Juan Carlos Escamilla and State Rep Warren Peterson wins the new 9th, the only district without an incumbent retiring or not. 

AZ-1 Paul Gosar (R)
AZ-2 Adam Kwasman (R)
AZ-3 Juan Carlos Escamilla (D)
AZ-4 David Schweikert (R)
AZ-5 Steve Montenegro (R)
AZ-6 Ruben Gallego (D)
AZ-7 Meghan McCain (R)
AZ-8 Kelly Townsend (R)
AZ-9 Warren Peterson (R)
AZ-10 Mark Kelly (D)

So what do you think? Maps are to come, I promise!

[Emperor Charles V]

http://s1278.photobucket.com/user/Charles615/embed/slideshow/10%20District%20Arizona

Here are the pictures.

The second shows all of Arizona, the first a close-up of the Phoenix area.

The color key:

1 - Dark Blue
2 - Green
3 - Dark Purple
4 - Red Orange
5 - Yellow
6 - Teal
7 - Gray
8 - Light Purple
9 - Light Blue
10 - Pink

If by any chance you see other maps they are my attempt at a 43-district New York, my home state, with a Republican gerrymander.

[publicunofficial]

Does your computer not have a Print Screen button?

[krazen1211]

Interesting. The Arizona GOP is currently filing a nonsense lawsuit to invalidate the independent redistricting commission.

After that lawsuit fails I suppose we shall see what happens. In what is a curiosity the GOP got the most votes but 4/9 seats. For some reason that is a tragedy in some areas but wholly unnoticed in others.

[publicunofficial]

Interesting. The Arizona GOP is currently filing a nonsense lawsuit to invalidate the independent redistricting commission.

After that lawsuit fails I suppose we shall see what happens. In what is a curiosity the GOP got the most votes but 4/9 seats. For some reason that is a tragedy in some areas but wholly unnoticed in others.

I'm not going to lie, the AZ map is a bit too favorable to Dems. A fair map would probably have AZ-01 be a Likely or Safe R seat, at the expense of making AZ-02 a bit more Dem leaning.

[muon2]

Interesting. The Arizona GOP is currently filing a nonsense lawsuit to invalidate the independent redistricting commission.

After that lawsuit fails I suppose we shall see what happens. In what is a curiosity the GOP got the most votes but 4/9 seats. For some reason that is a tragedy in some areas but wholly unnoticed in others.

I'm not going to lie, the AZ map is a bit too favorable to Dems. A fair map would probably have AZ-01 be a Likely or Safe R seat, at the expense of making AZ-02 a bit more Dem leaning.

The data sets they used to determine electoral fairness ('08 & '10) both had McCain at the top of the ticket and resulted in heavier GOP numbers than the national norms. To get a "fair" map the commission had tilt the districts more D than should have been necessary. That combined with a good D year in 2012 created the current imbalance.

As far as the OP, I don't expect the commission to be removed, so the 2020 map should be more mildly R than present, but not gerrymandered to push for Rs.

[krazen1211]

Interesting. The Arizona GOP is currently filing a nonsense lawsuit to invalidate the independent redistricting commission.

After that lawsuit fails I suppose we shall see what happens. In what is a curiosity the GOP got the most votes but 4/9 seats. For some reason that is a tragedy in some areas but wholly unnoticed in others.

I'm not going to lie, the AZ map is a bit too favorable to Dems. A fair map would probably have AZ-01 be a Likely or Safe R seat, at the expense of making AZ-02 a bit more Dem leaning.

The data sets they used to determine electoral fairness ('08 & '10) both had McCain at the top of the ticket and resulted in heavier GOP numbers than the national norms. To get a "fair" map the commission had tilt the districts more D than should have been necessary. That combined with a good D year in 2012 created the current imbalance.

As far as the OP, I don't expect the commission to be removed, so the 2020 map should be more mildly R than present, but not gerrymandered to push for Rs.

In addition of course the state legislative map simply underpopulated the Democratic districts on a systematic basis.

[Sol]

Of course, the really unreasonable part of the map is AZ-09. AZ-01 isn't actually too bad, IMO- the worst thing is it's dip into the Tucson area.

[muon2]

The commission put a much higher weight on competitiveness which created a number of lean D districts. This was the 9 CD map I did in 2011 before the commission report with much less competitiveness.



The maximum deviation is under 100. CD's 4 and 7 have HVAP over 58%. All reservations are in CD 1 or 7 except those immediately east of Phoenix. Politically it is probably 6R-3D depending on how much one shifts for the McCain factor in 2008.

[publicunofficial]

I like your map, although it's a bit messy and I don't think combining all the IRs into a single district is really needed or wanted.

Here's my take:



Max deviation is -870

CD-01 (Blue):
45.3% Obama, 53.5% McCain
R+6
47.2% White, 24.5% Hispanic, 21.7% Native American

Ann Kirkpatrick doesn't even live in this district, due to Flagstaff staying in CD-04 (Jonathan Paton doesn't live in the district either, due it dropping it's share of Tucson). It's slightly more liberal than the state, but it's still unlikely D's could take it against a competent Republican. Likely to Safe R.


CD-02 (Blue)
50% Obama, 48.9% McCain
R+2
66.6% White, 23.5% Hispanic

Obama likely won this seat in 2012, meaning Ron Barber likely holds on by a larger, although still slim, margin than he did under the current lines. Would still be a heavily contested seat most years. Toss-Up.


CD-03 (Purple):
56.2% Obama, 42.8% McCain
D+9
62.3% Hispanic, 28.1% White

Similar to the actual district, Grijalva gets a seat that's Safe most years, and slightly vulnerable in an off-year R wave. Even if R's take it, I doubt they could hold it for more than a cycle.

CD-04 (Red):
Obama 37.5%, McCain 61%
R+17
77.2% White, 15.9% Hispanic

Gosar gets to stay in Flagstaff instead of moving to Prescott, in this extremely Safe R seat.

CD-05 (Yellow):
Obama 36.3%, McCain 62.6%
R+17
75.4% White, 15% Hispanic

Consisting of Gilbert, Apache Junction, Queen Creek, and Gold Canyon, another very Safe R seat. I'm not sure if Matt Salmon lives in this district, but if he doesn't it's likely only by a couple of miles.

CD-06 (Olive):
Obama 42.1%, McCain 56.8%
R+11
74.8% White, 15.6% Hispanic

Made up of the northern half of Phoenix and Fountain Hills, David Schweikert and Ben Quayle are once again drawn into the same district. Although not as Republican as CD-04 and CD-05, this is still Safe R.


CD-07 (Grey):
Obama 63.7%, McCain 35.1%
D+20
63.7% Hispanic, 21.8% White, 8.6% Black

The other VRA seat, similar to the current version, consisting of urban Phoenix and Glendale. Ed Pastor, and his eventual successor, are safe here.

CD-08 (Slate Blue):
Obama 39%, McCain 59.9%
R+14
71.1% White, 18.7% Hispanic

Mostly the same as the current version, consisting of Peoria, Sun City, and Surprise. Safe R


CD-09 (Teal):
Obama 50.8%, McCain 47.9%
R+1
58.1% White, 27.6% Hispanic

Similar to the current district, although it drops most of its share of Phoenix in exchange for a bit more of Scotsdale. Consisting of Tempe, Mesa, Scotsdale, and Chandler. Obama still won this in 2012, but possibly by even less than he did under current lines. I think Sinema still wins this, but it'd still be very competitive.


Overall 5 R - 2 D - 2 Toss-Up