States that trended R in both 2008 and 2012

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Missouri
West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Arkansas
Wyoming


This should cause concern for Democrats in New  Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Missouri is continuing it's trend that started in 2000.
West Virginia is continuing it's trend started all the way back from 1992.
Kentucky is continuing it's trend since 1996, same with Arkansas.
Tennessee is continuing it's trend since 2004.
What should scare Republicans is that most of these states have already been trending R.

[illegaloperation]

It's hard to tell what is going on in New Hampshire since it's very elastic and can swing all over the place.

I do agree that Pennsylvania is a concern for Democrats.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

PA has trended R in 5 of the last 7 elections, pretty significant.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

PA has trended R in 5 of the last 7 elections, pretty significant.

Very misleading. In '88, the first of those elections, PA trended R only because Mondale had done anomalously well there, losing by less than half of Reagan's national margin. It was still a state where Dukakis overperformed. And in the other four elections, the Democrats won by such solid margins nationally that the value of a modest advantage in PA was diluted. Of course, the state trended D in the two (or one and a half) elections the Democrats lost, despite Bush targeting it heavily in both races.

PA seems remarkably stable - it's had a Democratic PVI since 1952, the longest of any state. And as VAVoter alluded to, the candidates do matter. Hillary and possibly Biden are better fits for the state than Obama; aside from Christie (RIP), the 2016 Republicans are worse matches than McCain (moderate image, war hero) or Romney (ex-moderate, Northern governor).

NH is far quirkier. However, McCain and Romney both had extensive ties to the state. Both had been campaigning there for years, and Romney had a personal residence. That + GOP tradition kept the state relatively close, and it ultimately wasn't THAT close.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Hillary and Biden may be better candidates, but of the mood is grim for Democrats in 2016 like this year, the states will have wife chance to flip. (and remember PA trended R against Clinton both times)
Remember that Republicans are going to use Obama against Hillary, like how Democrats used Bush against McCain.
And also, note that Obama's approve rating is loser in NH and PA than the national average

[Gass3268]

Hillary and Biden may be better candidates, but of the mood is grim for Democrats in 2016 like this year, the states will have wife chance to flip. (and remember PA trended R against Clinton both times)
Remember that Republicans are going to use Obama against Hillary, like how Democrats used Bush against McCain.
And also, note that Obama's approve rating is loser in NH and PA than the national average

The mood is only grim for the Democrats this year because they have so many Senate seats up for election. All of the generic congressional ballots have it roughly tied or Democrats leading by a hair. It is very much a mixed climate right now.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

And yet most of the governor races this year lean towards the GOP.
Only PA and ME will flip, and CT and IL will probably be close again if good candidates are nominated.

[henster]

How much money did Obama spend in PA compared to the other swing states he was invested in? I bet if he targeted PA like NC and had ads hitting Romney all Summer he would've won by a much larger margin. And why would Clinton do any worse than Obama in Western Pa.?

[Indy Texas]

PA is definitely trending R long term.

NH isn't. It was a safe Republican state before the '90s; it was a swing state in the '90s and '00s and arguably is on the very edge of the D column now.

It probably trended R in '08 in part because President Bush was a relatively poor fit for NH in '04 (he won it in '00, yes, but Candidate Bush was a much better fit) and Kerry ran strongly in New England generally; in '08, you had a more "maverick-y" Republican who NH always liked while Obama lost the NH primary; in '12 you had Romney coming from next door and aggressively contesting the state.

I think in retrospect, 2010 will look like the last hurrah for Republicans in New Hampshire to have had really big wins - sweeping both CDs and winning an open Senate seat. Kelly Ayotte will probably be gone after 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

New Hampshire can be explained by Kerry outperforming other Democrats in that state for 2004.

[jamesyons]

As a Republican I am very happy with the trends in Pennsylvania and Democrats should definitely be worried about Pennsylvania.  Western Pennsylvania has continued to swing towards Republicans and Democrats show no signs of moderating their positions on abortion or ending the War on Coal which has devastating Western PA's economy outside of Pittsburgh.  At the same time this is occurring the bleeding has slowed down in the Philadelphia suburbs which except for diversifying Delaware have swung towards Romney greatly and with a more moderate candidate they should be able to win Bucks and get 45% in Montgomery.  Lastly Democratic bastions Scranton and Wilkes-Barre continue to decline in population while Lancaster and York continue to grow.

[TeePee4Prez]

As a Republican I am very happy with the trends in Pennsylvania and Democrats should definitely be worried about Pennsylvania.  Western Pennsylvania has continued to swing towards Republicans and Democrats show no signs of moderating their positions on abortion or ending the War on Coal which has devastating Western PA's economy outside of Pittsburgh.  At the same time this is occurring the bleeding has slowed down in the Philadelphia suburbs which except for diversifying Delaware have swung towards Romney greatly and with a more moderate candidate they should be able to win Bucks and get 45% in Montgomery.  Lastly Democratic bastions Scranton and Wilkes-Barre continue to decline in population while Lancaster and York continue to grow.

Don't get your hopes up too much on Lancaster/York.  Most of that growth are from Democratic leaning voters from the Baltimore and Philadelphia areas.  Another Democratic trending and growing area is the eastern Poconos.  Do not underestimate that.

As for "moderate" business-like Republicans, they fare better in Montco and Bucks but won't do so hot outside of there if a non-minority Democrat runs.  Run a "Populist" type, they'll do poorly in the Philadelphia suburbs.  It's lose-lose either way.  I'm not sold on the "trend" either.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Of course you aren't.