Hillary's 2016 electoral strategy.

[illegaloperation]

What will be Hillary's 2016 electoral strategy?

Will she pursuit states that demographic changes have make more competitive (Arizona, Georgia)?

...or will she try to win back the states that have drifted away from her party (Arkansas, West Virginia)?

[IceSpear]

Depends what her extensive network of internal polls will tell her to do.

I expect her to be more cautious and focus on holding territory Dems already won in 2012, maybe throwing in a couple extra states like Missouri or Arizona.

[illegaloperation]

How does trying to win states that have drifted away from her party help?

Hypothetically speaking, she wins Arkansas. I don't see how this is advantageous, since this is not a foundation that future Democratic presidents can built on.

[Peeperkorn]

50 states campaign.

It will be a nightmare for GOPers.

[DS0816]

If Hillary Clinton wins the party nomination in 2016; the general election; and she does so better than a re-elected Barack Obama from 2012 . . .


Take Obama's 26 states plus District of Columbia, for 332 electoral votes, and bring back North Carolina and add to this Georgia and Arizona. Total would be 374 electoral votes. This would be based on her winning by at least 8 points nationwide. (Not unheard of given she'd perform better with both genders.)

I'm not looking at this seriously, at least not at this point, but I would be curious to see what the mood of the country will be heading into 2016.

[Lief 🗽]

The main battlegrounds will be North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Arizona, Missouri and perhaps a late foray into Texas in October after her lead grows following the debates.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama 2012 + GA, AZ, AR, MO, MT, LA and NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even George Will says in a non endorsement way on Fox, all Hillary needs to do is find 28 electors to beat Christie. Even he thinks Christie should lose in primary.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I would focus on Obama 2012 + NC, MO and possibly AR, while laying groundwork for future wins in AZ, GA and TX, but not to win this time.

[ShadowRocket]

I think she'd focus pretty much on the same states as Obama did in '12 except for maybe NV and WI (barring that Walker or Ryan isn't the GOP nominee) as those are both probably pretty much in her camp. I'm not sure if she would really try and expand the map too much aside from AR for symbolic reasons, and AZ and GA due to demographic changes.

[Mr. Morden]

Boring answer: Like every candidate, she'll poll every remotely competitive state, and then target the states that are closest.

[DS0816]

Obama 2012 + GA, AZ, AR, MO, MT, LA and NC

In that case, add Indiana. Over the last two elections, Indiana and Missouri have been about a full percentage point in their margins' spread.

[Mister Mets]

Even George Will says in a non endorsement way on Fox, all Hillary needs to do is find 28 electors to beat Christie. Even he thinks Christie should lose in primary.

To clarify, his point was that she just needs the states that Democrats have won in the last six elections, plus 28 electoral votes. It's a bit of a contrast to the arguments that she could put states Obama lost by twenty points (in a good year for the party) into play.

Those 28 electoral votes include New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. To say nothing of Virginia, Florida and Ohio.

I'm sure her campaign would love to expand the map. But there's probably a less than even chance of that happening.

And it's still unnecessary.

Obama's 2012 states minus Florida, Virginia and Ohio is enough to give her 272 electoral votes.

Obviously, it depends on the state of the election.

If the Republicans nominate someone extreme who makes ridiculous gaffes, she would love the opportunity to beat Obama's numbers.

If the Republicans nominate someone good, and the environment turns against Democrats, she'll be on the defensive in states like Michigan.

[HAnnA MArin County]

If her numbers improve in Appalachia once she announces, I could see her contesting Kentucky and West Virginia. But if Hillary Clinton cannot win Appalachia, then no Democrat can.

I think she would still have a leg up in the big three states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania to where they could possibly be lean Democrat (remember, she won these three states during the primaries). If she wins Arkansas, then she will win Missouri, and I can see her possibly contesting Arizona, another state that she won in the primary. I don't know if she will in Georgia, but possibly maybe North Carolina. I don't see her contesting Montana.