China fears brain drain as its overseas students stay put

[dead0man]

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[opebo]

Maybe they can hire the unemployed American graduates instead.

[jaichind]

My response are the following

1) Yes.  This is a problem but not a fatal one as it is actually getting better relative to 10 years ago.

2) Taiwan Province of the ROC had the same issues back in the 1970s and 1980s but that did not stop the tech boom of the late 1980s and 1990s.  

3) We should see the movement of overseas students in two waves.  The first wave was in the 1980s and 1990s which were the cream of the crop.  Many of them did not go back to Mainland China but are starting to do so about ten years ago, especially after the 2008-9 economic crisis in the West.  The next but bigger wave started ten years ago and were the children of the new rich and not particularly talented.  This second group did sometimes return but were often not economically successful so the rate of return actually slowed down.

4) Taiwan Province ROC also experience the same two waves.  The first in the 1960s and 1970s of the cognitive elite and a second wave in the 1980s of the children of the new rich.  The slow return for overseas students in the early 1970s and early 1980s also provoked debate on ROC as well.  So Mainland China is merely repeating the ROC experience with a 30 year lag.  In the late 1980s and early 1990s did come another wave of ROC students coming back to Taiwan Province as ROC moved into a high income economy status.

5) The low rate of return of overseas students is for sure a concern but also a reflection of the competitive nature of the labor market on Mainland China that more overseas students are really not that competitive if and when they come back as the nature of business and workforce transformation are rapid on Mainland China and being away overseas means that these students are out of touch with most recent trends on the Mainland.

6) The nature of the labor force competitive can be seen in cycle of migration of Chinese on Taiwan Province ROC to Mainland China.  Today over 1 million people (over 5% of ROC population) from Taiwan Province ROC live on Mainland China.  Mainland China personal freedom cannnot be that bad if 5% of "free" and "democratic" Taiwan Province choose to live in a place where over GDP/capita is at best 1/3 of Taiwan Province in PPP terms.  Back in the 1990s when ROC technology and labor market had a clear advantage over the Mainland, migrations from Taiwan Province to the Mainland were the bottom of the barrel as people on Taiwan Province who are not competitive on Taiwan Province but were on the Mainland.  In the 2000s this shifted as the middle of the road on Taiwan Province migrated to the Mainland to take advantage of the Mainland economic boom as the economy on Taiwan Province faltered due to its dysfunctional populist political economic system.  Recently even this migration started to slow as the educational upgrading of the Mainland population in wealthy areas are becoming more than a match for the middle of the road students and labor force on Taiwan Province.  The most recent way are more the best and brightest on Taiwan Province going to Mainland where they are competitive with the local talent.  Of course rising cost of living in elite areas on the Mainland will restrain this migration.

Lets be clear.  While I generally support the PRC regime despite and because of my Far Right views within the Chinese political context, I detest the PRC one child policy as I view it as genocide against the Chinese people.  On the other hand lets not blow it out of proportion on how important that is in keeping overseas students overseas or coming back.  It is mostly driven by economics.

[angus]

These things happen.  The best we can do is exploit it.

"Hitler is my best friend. He shakes the trees and I gather the apples."
    ---Walter Cook (1888 - 1962), Professor of Fine Arts, NYU