GOP Picks up San Joaquin Valley Senate District

[socaldem]

Republican farmer Andy Vidak defeated (newly elected in 2012) Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez in a special election for Senate District 16.

You may recognize Andy Vidak because he almost knocked off Congressman Jim Costa (D-Fresno) in 2010, prompting Costa to jump districts and run on safer Democratic turf rather than than face a stiff challenge in the Kern/Kings/Fresno County CD-21.

With 100% reporting from the CA Secretary of State.

Paulina Miranda (Party Preference: DEM)   1,469                   2.6%
Leticia Perez (Party Preference: DEM)   23,665                 41.7%
Francisco "Frank" Ramirez (Party Preference: DEM)   1,689   3.0%
Andy Vidak (Party Preference: REP)   29,445                          51.9%
Mohammed "O" Arif (Party Preference: P&F)   419                    0.7%

The California Democratic Party is doing really well and making gains in most areas of the state and Obama even improved his performance in 2012 elections in a number of the heavily Latino parts of the San Joaquin Valley.

However, the Democratic Party is a complete mess in this region. Michael Rubio really pulled a number with his sudden resignation to take an oil company job. By resigning midterm, he gave the GOP a key opportunity in a low-turnout special election and has temporarily reduced Dem senate margins below 2/3.

Andy Vidak certainly may be vulnerable in the regular election but the seat is up in 2014 and with the power of incumbency and off-year turnout, he may be able to hang on.

Recall that in the 2012 election, Democrats were unable to recruit a decent candidate in CD21 after Rep. Costa jumped ship. They did convince a Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong to run, but he didn't have a connection to most of the district and lost the primary to an unimpressive candidate. In the past, the local Dem-leaning super-latino Kern/Kings assembly district, which is presently occupied by Democrat Rudy Salas (thank God!) had also gone to the GOP, partly because of a ridiculous feud between the Parra and Florez families. Not sure why Dean Florez hasn't run for CD21. So there's lots of history of Dem under-performance at the local and state level here.

In any case, one thing I do wonder about SD16 and CD21 is why the districts contain all of Kings County. Kings County is majority latino. However, most registered voters in the county are white and the district contains very conservative white neighborhoods in Hanford that dominate the district. Also 12% of the county's population are prisoners, so that skews demographics without affecting voting patterns.

Grouping all of Hanford with the heavily Latino (and low turnout!) farm communities in Fresno and Kern Counties as well as the Latino portions of Bakersfield and Fresno doesn't make any sense to me from a VRA perspective. If Hanford were removed from these districts, the election results would be more in line with the preferences of the vast majority of residents rather than the small minority of high propensity conservative Kings County white voters...

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

No surprise that Michael Rubio retired. He was reported to have interest in CA-21 last year, but family concerns got in the way (specifically to take care of his newborn daughter with Down Syndrome).

Anyways, the DCCC better be working to find a new candidate for CA-21 and we have to get a candidate for SD16 now too.

[greenforest32]

Interesting.

By resigning midterm, he gave the GOP a key opportunity in a low-turnout special election and has temporarily reduced Dem senate margins below 2/3.

I thought Democrats had two or three seats above 2/3s in the State Senate?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_State_Senate#Composition

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So was this election for that 1/40 vacancy or did Republicans win one of the 28/40 D seats? Even if the later, 27/40 clears two-thirds.

[DrScholl]

It's very hard for Democrats to turn out their base in the Central Valley in non-presidential years, even more so in a special election like this. The district Vidak will be running in 2014 is 58% Obama, which is a pretty tough climb even with incumbency. Governor Brown runs strong in the Central Valley, so the turnout issues will be less.

[socaldem]

Interesting.

By resigning midterm, he gave the GOP a key opportunity in a low-turnout special election and has temporarily reduced Dem senate margins below 2/3.

I thought Democrats had two or three seats above 2/3s in the State Senate?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_State_Senate#Composition

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So was this election for that 1/40 vacancy or did Republicans win one of the 28/40 D seats? Even if the later, 27/40 clears two-thirds.

Senator Curren Price from South L.A. has just been elected to L.A. City Council, reducing margins temporarily below 2/3. Once we win that seat back, it will be 2/3 until 2014 at least, when Dems may lose another tough state senate seat in Orange County.

L.A. City Council pays $200K+ and has great benefits so Sacramento politicians are always utilizing the revolving door between council and assembly. In this year's election Assemblyman Bob Blumenfeld, Assemblyman Gil Cedillo, and State Senator Curren Price were all elected to City Council. Ex-Assemblyman Mike Feuer is also now City Attorney and ex-Assemblywoman Cindy Montanez is set to win City Council District 6 special election to replace congressman Cardenas.

[socaldem]

No surprise that Michael Rubio retired. He was reported to have interest in CA-21 last year, but family concerns got in the way (specifically to take care of his newborn daughter with Down Syndrome).

Anyways, the DCCC better be working to find a new candidate for CA-21 and we have to get a candidate for SD16 now too.

I am certainly sympathetic to Michael Rubio's family situation.

However, there's something fishy about his abrupt resignation shortly before a major piece of environmental legislation was about to come up for a vote.

Also, this article notes how Chevron not only gave him a job, but also bought him a house: http://www.inedc.com/1-3952

[socaldem]

It's very hard for Democrats to turn out their base in the Central Valley in non-presidential years, even more so in a special election like this. The district Vidak will be running in 2014 is 58% Obama, which is a pretty tough climb even with incumbency. Governor Brown runs strong in the Central Valley, so the turnout issues will be less.

True...perhaps Brown's coattails can help. So who should Dems run, then?

And how are we going to solve that pesky Kings County problem?

[DrScholl]

Assemblyman Henry Perea might run, he passed this time, but next year he might look at it more favorable. He has only one Assembly term left to run for, so he may opt for Senate. Kings County shouldn't be a problem with better turnout overall and good turnout in Kings gets a Democrat to at least 39-40%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This probably has a lot to do with the Obama Administration's environmental policy.  The San Joaquin Valley has some of the richest farmland in America, but the federal government will not allow them the have water for irrigation because it is trying to protect an endangered minnow.  As a result, much of the land has dried up.  I'm all in favor of protecting the minnows, but the farmers can at least change the way they irrigate their land.

[Mr.Phips]

This probably has a lot to do with the Obama Administration's environmental policy.  The San Joaquin Valley has some of the richest farmland in America, but the federal government will not allow them the have water for irrigation because it is trying to protect an endangered minnow.  As a result, much of the land has dried up.  I'm all in favor of protecting the minnows, but the farmers can at least change the way they irrigate their land.

That's why Obama twice carried this district by about 20 points.

[DrScholl]

Looks like this might go to a runoff after all, the Secretary of State updated the results after more absentees and provisional ballots were counted.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-senate/district/16/

Vidak is just below 50% at 49.8, which if it holds, is just enough to force a runoff in July.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like this might go to a runoff after all, the Secretary of State updated the results after more absentees and provisional ballots were counted.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-senate/district/16/

Vidak is just below 50% at 49.8, which if it holds, is just enough to force a runoff in July.

The fact that this will become a two person race and all of the all of the Dem candidate votes in the primary added up to a majority, I would say that the Dem will be favored in the runoff.

[socaldem]

Looks like this might go to a runoff after all, the Secretary of State updated the results after more absentees and provisional ballots were counted.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-senate/district/16/

Vidak is just below 50% at 49.8, which if it holds, is just enough to force a runoff in July.

Whew...can Central Valley Dems please get their s*** together?

Hopefully Leticia Perez has the fire in her belly to keep this seat.

[muon2]

In any case, one thing I do wonder about SD16 and CD21 is why the districts contain all of Kings County. Kings County is majority latino. However, most registered voters in the county are white and the district contains very conservative white neighborhoods in Hanford that dominate the district. Also 12% of the county's population are prisoners, so that skews demographics without affecting voting patterns.

Grouping all of Hanford with the heavily Latino (and low turnout!) farm communities in Fresno and Kern Counties as well as the Latino portions of Bakersfield and Fresno doesn't make any sense to me from a VRA perspective. If Hanford were removed from these districts, the election results would be more in line with the preferences of the vast majority of residents rather than the small minority of high propensity conservative Kings County white voters...

The problem with Kings is that it is a VRA Section 5 county and had to be treated differently than the neighboring areas that were only subject to Section 2. Section 5 bars diminishment of a racial or language minority, so the CRC found that compliance required that Kings stayed intact in the SD and CD and that the Latino percentage be boosted by linking to parts of Bakersfield and Fresno. Splitting Hanford from the rest of Kings could be viewed as a diminishment for the Latinos n Hanford.

[Holmes]

A runoff would be great, provided the Democrat actually wins. Don't want another case of one or two Republicans being able to hold the state hostage again.

[BigSkyBob]

Now, it is semi-official.

[rbt48]

Vidak wins:

http://www.visaliatimesdelta.com/article/20130724/NEWS01/307240045/Perez-concedes-16th-state-Senate-District-race-Vidak

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-senate/district/16/

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

ZOMG CALIFORNIA WILL BE A SWING STATE BY 2020 EVERYONE PANIC