New Mexico

[JRP1994]

2000: Gore by 0.06%
2004: Bush by 0.79%
2008: Obama by 15.13%
2012: Obama by 10.15%

New Mexico was extremely close in 2000 and 2004, but skewed Democratic in 2008 and 2012. The question is, how far gone is New Mexico for the Republicans? Bush won it in 2004, which can be explained by Bush's abnormally high approval ratings among Hispanics, and the incompetency of Kerry's campaign.

Are there any plausible circumstances by which a Republican could win New Mexico in 2016? If not, how long before New Mexico becomes competitive again, if ever?

[PJ]

New Mexico is probably just the first of many southwestern states with this trend. If someone like Christie runs (ie a moderate), or a Rep from New Mexico, the GOP could carry it. Otherwise it is long gone. The only way this could be reversed is with massive GOP success with hispanics, which I doubt will happen.

[illegaloperation]

As far as I am concern, New Mexico and Nevada are gone and Colorado is heading that way.

Any Republican who can carry Nevada already are will into the 300+ EV and New Mexico into the 340+ EV.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

NM will flip Republican if and only if Susana Martinez is on the ticket. At this point I'm not sure if Christie can save it alone.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Results in New Mexico:

2000: Gore by 0.06%
2004: Bush by 0.79%
2008: Obama by 15.13%
2012: Obama by 10.15%

National:
2000: Gore by 0.51% 
2004: Bush by 2.46%
2008: Obama by 7.28 %
2012: Obama by 3.86%

New Mexico's lean compared to the national popular vote:

2000: R+0.45
2004: D+1.67
2008: D+7.85
2012: D+6.29

It has been moving to the left, but it appears to have actually trended R in 2012. I think 2012 was an anomaly though, considering that Obama is, IIRC, the only incumbent aside from FDR to fare worse in both the PV and EC upon reelection.

Barring a 350+ landslide New Mexico's gone. Nevada will follow suit in 2016, and Colorado will solidify soon after. It doesn't matter if the GOP makes it to 60-40 with Hispanics. New Mexico is gone, barring a massive GOP victory with Hispanics.

[sg0508]

Another "demographic" debacle for the GOP and CO/NV are pretty much gone now as well.  Somehow, the GOP forgot that the demographics of the country don't reflect those of the 1980s anymore...in 2012.  Unreal.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I think the only reason the state "trended right" in 2012 was due to the presence of Gary Johnson on the ticket. The amount of votes that he siphoned could probably explain the "trend."

[Miles]

I can see it attaining 'fools gold' status for the GOP over the next few cycles. The Democrats should be able to routinely carry it by at least high single-digits though.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

New Mexico is still a swing state, but President Obama carried it twice by double digits because of his strength with Latinos.  As they assimilate, and especially if Republicans change their rhetoric on illegal immigration, then it may stay that way.

[ottermax]

Is New Mexico really the same as the rest of the SW? I've always considered it to be a unique case because it actually has fairly low immigration compared to Arizona, California, and Nevada. Most Hispanics are assimilated and have been present for multiple generations.

Also I think White New Mexicans are less Republican than in surrounding states, and Hispanics are less Democratic than surrounding states. NM Hispanics voted 65% Obama, while Whites voted 41% Obama.
Arizona was 75% Obama for Hispanics, 35% Obama for Whites.
Colorado was 75% Obama for Hispanics, 44% for Whites
Nevada: 74% for Hispanics, 43% for Whites
California: 72% for Hispanics, 45% for Whites

I think New Mexico is Democratic because it is poor, has a high Native population, and few retirees, along with a more liberal White population and a large and Democratic-leaning Hispanic population.
But there is a strong Republican contingent - I'm not sure where it comes from other than a more moderate Hispanic population and higher turnout for Whites.

Interesting thing to note about the Hispanic vote in NM is that it is long-term Hispanics, and while it is argued that Hispanics will assimilate, the vote in NM is still overwhelming for the Democrats, although reduced. Does this bode well for Republicans? I don't think the Republican Party can safely assume that Hispanics in other states will fall in line with the party as they assimilate.

Does anyone care to explain what the base of the Republican party is in New Mexico?

[Sol]

Is New Mexico really the same as the rest of the SW? I've always considered it to be a unique case because it actually has fairly low immigration compared to Arizona, California, and Nevada. Most Hispanics are assimilated and have been present for multiple generations.

Also I think White New Mexicans are less Republican than in surrounding states, and Hispanics are less Democratic than surrounding states. NM Hispanics voted 65% Obama, while Whites voted 41% Obama.
Arizona was 75% Obama for Hispanics, 35% Obama for Whites.
Colorado was 75% Obama for Hispanics, 44% for Whites
Nevada: 74% for Hispanics, 43% for Whites
California: 72% for Hispanics, 45% for Whites

I think New Mexico is Democratic because it is poor, has a high Native population, and few retirees, along with a more liberal White population and a large and Democratic-leaning Hispanic population.
But there is a strong Republican contingent - I'm not sure where it comes from other than a more moderate Hispanic population and higher turnout for Whites.

Interesting thing to note about the Hispanic vote in NM is that it is long-term Hispanics, and while it is argued that Hispanics will assimilate, the vote in NM is still overwhelming for the Democrats, although reduced. Does this bode well for Republicans? I don't think the Republican Party can safely assume that Hispanics in other states will fall in line with the party as they assimilate.

Does anyone care to explain what the base of the Republican party is in New Mexico?

The GOP base is largely in the Southeast, which votes a lot like folks in Northwestern TX.

[Nichlemn]

I think the only reason the state "trended right" in 2012 was due to the presence of Gary Johnson on the ticket. The amount of votes that he siphoned could probably explain the "trend."

Wouldn't GJ, as a former Republican governor, probably have siphoned off more votes from Romney than Obama?

[Jordan]

I think the only reason the state "trended right" in 2012 was due to the presence of Gary Johnson on the ticket. The amount of votes that he siphoned could probably explain the "trend."

Wouldn't GJ, as a former Republican governor, probably have siphoned off more votes from Romney than Obama?

I don't know.  He was the former 2 term Republican Governor of New Mexico.

However he is pro-choice, pro gay marriage and pro legalization of marijuana and anti-war.

[Czarcasm]

The only way Republicans can hope to shift NM back from leaning to swing is to adopt the same strategy they must adopt at the federal level: that of understanding Latino voters.

The biggest mistake conservatives can make is to think that Hispanics are a single, form-fitting voting demographic. They'll constitute a demographic majority by 2040 (if not sooner), and the assimilation process, while uniquely distinct from assimilation of past waves of immigrants, has already begun. They can't be won simply by fielding more Latino candidates or reforming our stance on immigration; in fact, the biggest way to *lose* Latino votes is probably to think those short-term carrots will completely reshape that demographic's voting trends.

Racially speaking, Bill O'Reilly was spot on when he said this "isn't a traditional America anymore"-- the bipartisan tradition of courting non-Hispanic white voters as a singular path to victory is long gone. Republicans can make inroads with Hispanic voters if they consider the commonalities they share with certain sub-demographics: ironically, Catholics are among the biggest opportunities: contrary to established trends among white Catholic voters, Latino Catholics often cite their faith as being a compelling influence at the ballot box. This population could be very receptive to the types of "family values" social conservatism the Republican Party likes to tout today, if the message were packaged in a new fashion by people whose other perspectives on social policy make their entire party seem racially exclusive.

[The Free North]

Also remember that Gary Johnson won 4% of the vote there in 2012 which helped drive down the other 2 totals as well

[barfbag]

New Mexico is still among Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Obama overperformed there because he's a minority and had a strong showing with Latinos. It's about a 52-47 state for the left right now.