The 7 most important swing states in 2016 are...?

[bballrox4717]

I'm confused as to why Ohio and Florida tops most people's lists. Republicans can win both but still lose the election. Florida might not even be seriously contested if Rubio is on the ticket.

The Republicans need to stop the lurch leftward from Virginia and Colorado or make gains in the midwest/Pennsylvania to win. It isn't 2000 or 2004 anymore.

[opebo]

1 FL
2 OH
3 VA
4 CO
5 PA
6 IA
7 WI

8 NC

[pbrower2a]

Electoral history, 1992-2012

6X Republican
5X Republican -- Clinton once
5X Republican -- Obama once
Clinton twice, Obama never
white -- voted for the winner in all six elections
Clinton once, Obama twice
Clinton never, Obama twice
5X Democratic (Clinton 2, Bush 1, Obama 2)
6X Democratic

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Swing states:

1. Ohio. I know a lot of people have been saying that it's not a must win for Democrats, but with its 18 electoral votes and its consistent close proximity to the national average, it will be a very important factor. Don't count out Ohio this time.
2. Pennsylvania. This state was closer than many supposed swing states in 2012, like New Hampshire and Iowa. And with Colorado moving left fast, Pennsylvania may very likely be the tipping point state of 2016. It has a relatively low elasticity, so turnout is key here. However Republicans seem to have maxed out in West Pennsylvania, and Democrats control the major cities, so this state is very hard to shift. If a Republican made a concentrated effort here Pennsylvania could flip, just as Indiana flipped in 2008.
3. Virginia. This state is rapidly becoming more like Maryland than like North Carolina as the D.C. suburbs grow. The key here is NOVA. Republicans must stop the Democratic growth here, and prevent the suburbs from voting like Maryland. The suburban crowd is not particularly liberal, and are probably not all social liberals, but are turned off by the GOP's excessive socon ideology. If the GOP can hold Virginia at least at an even PVI, then Virginia will again be a major swing state in 2016.
4. Colorado. Very similar case to Virginia, rapidly shifting D due to population influxes from the West Coast. Hispanic growth here is also a big factor, but not as much as in states like Nevada and Arizona. It was the tipping point state in both 2008 and 2012, but with its rapid leftward shifts it will probably be in Tilt D territory in 2016. If Clinton is the nominee this state would be an easier pickup for Republicans, but this far out it is impossible to tell.
5. Florida. Absolute must win for Republicans, not needed for Democrats. In a neutral year Florida would go Republican by a slight margin. With its 29 electoral votes it should be at the top of the list, but chances are, especially if Rubio is the nominee, that Florida will be a Lean R state in 2016. Democrats do not need to win this state, period. Only if they are doing well on the order of D+3 or more nationally. I believe Obama actually began to pull resources out of this state towards the end.
6. Iowa. Not exactly an electoral vote juggernaut, but could make a difference in a narrow election. Iowa is extremely homogenous, and its white vote is much more Democratic than nationally (I believe over 10% D compared to national). With a well run campaign Republicans could win, like in 2004, but compared to states like Ohio and Pennsylvania it's not as important. Iowa could be a starting point for Republicans to make inroads in Lean D states like Michigan and Minnesota, however,
7. Wisconsin. It was a tossup between this an New Hampshire, but I decided on Wisconsin because 10 EVs > 4 EVs. Wisconsin is very similar to Iowa demographically, being part of the "Minnewisowa" bloc that voted Dukakis in 1988. It's obviously not 1988 anymore, and it's clear that Wisconsin isn't just a regular battleground state-Bush very nearly took it in both 2000 and 2004. If Republicans run a well oiled campaign it just might flip, like Iowa.

Other states:
8. New Hampshire. I think it could be won if the GOP puts a lot of effort into it, and gets rid of the socon rhetoric. Not much to say otherwise, it's close to the tipping point but would only decide the election in a 2000-esque situation.
9. North Carolina. Like Florida, this is an absolute must win for the GOP. I'm including this because if it's even remotely close near election day, the GOP can just start laying the groundwork for a 2020 run. They would be done.

Battleground states:
Nevada. Basically an extreme case of Colorado, but Nevada has moved so far left that it can't be considered a legitimate swing state anymore. It's gone unless the GOP wins every single state listed above.
Minnesota. High floor, low ceiling state for Republicans. Many bring up the argument that it has not been won by Republicans since 1972, but if Republicans are able to make inroads in the Midwest it could be won in 2024, or even 2020. Not 2016 though, it's staying as a battleground state for now.
Arizona. The demographic changes here are slowly but surely shifting this state D. In 2012 it trended D a lot, but a lot of this was due to the favorite son effect vanishing without McCain on the ticket. It doesn't appear to be moving much yet, but considering it will be a majority-minority state fairly soon, expect it to start moving left like Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado have.
Michigan. Similar case to Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, only farther out of reach. Potentially winnable in a few cycles for GOP.
Georgia. Similar case to North Carolina and Virginia, moving left slowly. It could be a swing state in 2024 or 2028, but not 2016.
Missouri. Without Clinton, too far GOP to go Dem. Only winnable for Dems in a 375+ EV scenario.
New Mexico. This is the ultimate fate of Nevada, and possibly Colorado and Arizona. Too far left, too heavily Hispanic to be considered in play by the GOP.

Other:
New Jersey possibly if Christie is the nominee, Arkansas if Clinton. Not much else.

[ElectionsGuy]

Electoral history, 1992-2012

6X Republican
5X Republican -- Clinton once
5X Republican -- Obama once
Clinton twice, Obama never
white -- voted for the winner in all six elections
Clinton once, Obama twice
Clinton never, Obama twice
5X Democratic (Clinton 2, Bush 1, Obama 2)
6X Democratic

Virginia didn't vote for Clinton once.

[bballrox4717]

I'm confused as to why Ohio and Florida tops most people's lists. Republicans can win both but still lose the election. Florida might not even be seriously contested if Rubio is on the ticket.

The Republicans need to stop the lurch leftward from Virginia and Colorado or make gains in the midwest/Pennsylvania to win. It isn't 2000 or 2004 anymore.

But if they lose just one of them, their chances are zero.

Florida is the biggest prize among all purple states; Ohio is the second biggest (because PA is so hazy). It makes sense for them to be #1 and #2.

Virginia and Colorado are important, but they're secondary. Unless you have FL and OH, then VA and CO are worthless.

But that's exactly the point. They aren't true swing states, they lean Republican. The Republicans could win both and still lose the overall election. It's a failing strategy to say, "Hey, our top priority is to win states that should already be in our corner if we intend to win the overall election." Even the lists that include Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at the top over VA and CO make more sense than having FL and OH because making the Democrats spend big money on their own supposed turf not only opens up the tipping point states, but lets OH and FL move back towards their natural lean if they aren't the main focus anymore. You win the fight by going for the jugular, not by protecting your own neck.

[barfbag]

1 Ohio
2 Virginia
3 Florida
4 Pennsylvania
5 Colorado
6 Nevada
7 Wisconsin

Longer List of Battleground States:

Iowa
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Georgia
Michigan
North Carolina
New Jersey
Indiana
Washington
Missouri
Minnesota
Montana
Oregon
Maine
Delaware

Swing states:

I agree with you on all except Nevada. It's surged Democratic, and FAST. If it's contested, it'll be a battleground, not swing state, and I see little chance of the Republicans winning it without already having won 290+EVs.

Battleground States:

Iowa: Swing state, if GOP is competent campaign

New Mexico: Forget it - gone for the GOP except in a 340+EV blowout

New Hampshire: Same as Iowa

Georgia: In a Democratic blowout, maybe. But not likely to be a tipping point state for a few years.

Michigan: Same as New Mexico, but to a slightly lesser extent

North Carolina: Ever-so-slightly Republican leaning swing-state.

New Jersey: ONLY if Christie is the nominee. GOP has gotten curb-stomped there in 3 of the last 4.

Indiana: Only in a Democratic blowout. 2008 was a very unique anomaly. IN not usually competitive.

Washington: NO CHANCE. Not even HW could win it in 1988. It's gone unless GOP SERIOUSLY moderates.

Missouri: Trending right very quickly. Wouldn't be a wise investment unless Hillary is nominee.

Minnesota: I agree with your assessment

Montana: Only if Brian Schweitzer is on the ticket somehow, or there's a libertarian/populist Democrat running. 

Oregon: Same as Washington, but to a lesser extent. Still winnable for GOP in a blowout (350+EVs)

Maine: Somewhere in between Oregon and Washington, but the 2nd CD is worth investment for the GOP.

Delaware: NO CHANCE.

The reason I stand by Nevada is because it wasn't really that close for either Bush election or either Obama election. Either it swung to the left big or it's swinging big based on the nature of the times. Usually they've voted for the winner so 2016 will be very interesting.

[Non Swing Voter]

1.) Florida
2.) Ohio
3.) Iowa
4.) Pennsylvania
5.) Michigan
6.) Wisconsin
7.) Virginia

I actually think several of these states lean Democrat.  However, a bunch of formerly swing states are probably gone for Republicans (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado) so the only way they can run a viable campaign is to try to compete in big states that are slight longshots... i.e. Pennsylvania, Michigan...

I think the Republicans could easily win states 1-3, but 4-7 will be really hard, so I don't see them winning the election except if they win the popular vote by a decent margin.

[Senator Cris]

With Christie candidate:

Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Minnesota
Maine 2nd District
Colorado
Nevada
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa
Virginia
New Hampshire

With Martinez VP: New Mexico

[Consciously Unconscious]

1.  Pennsylvania
2.  Florida
3.  Ohio
4.  Colorado
5.  Virginia
6.  Wisconsin
7.  North Carolina

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
Missouri
Michigan
Minnesota

[pbrower2a]

Electoral history, 1992-2012

6X Republican
5X Republican -- Clinton once
5X Republican -- Obama once
Clinton twice, Obama never
white -- voted for the winner in all six elections
Clinton once, Obama twice
Clinton never, Obama twice
5X Democratic (Clinton 2, Bush 1, Obama 2)
6X Democratic

Virginia didn't vote for Clinton once.

Correction made in the key.

[Space7]

In terms of tipping point states:

1: Virginia
Just by looking at Virginia's trend, I would hazard a guess that Virginia will be the tipping point in 2016. It's decent amount of electoral votes helps too. That is, of course, extremely tentative.

2: Colorado
It's been the tipping-point state twice in a row. That pretty much makes it worthy of the top few right there. Nine votes isn't much, but the fact that it's been so crucial makes up for that.

3: Ohio
(Who would have guessed!) As usual, Ohio is one of the most important, thanks to it's almost-neutral-but-slightly-Republican lean, and its wealth of electoral votes.

4: Pennsylvania
It seems to be sliding towards the Republicans. It might just be fool's gold, but I betcha if the Republicans really, really tried to take this state they might just be able to, despite it's low elasticity. Turnout is key. Its 20 electoral votes would make the Republicans very likely victorious unless the Democrats grab Virginia and Ohio as well in its stead.

5: Florida
The first one that probably very likely won't be the tipping point. It is almost imperative that the Republicans take this state.

6: Iowa
Iowa doesn't have very many electoral votes, but it only leans very slightly Democratic, and it has the potential to end up being decisive if only due to it's proximity to the tipping point.

7: New Hampshire
Like Iowa, what New Hampshire lacks in electoral votes it makes up in proximity to the tipping point. It even has a high elasticity and an Independent steak, making it all the more useful as a swing state. The only thing keeping it behind Iowa is it's tiny amount of votes (4), which are very unlikely to be decisive.

This is my personal map of the states that are most likely to be decisive. Nevada and Wisconsin take 8th and 9th place, respectively. A darker red indicates a more important state.

[Space7]

In terms of tipping point states:

1: Virginia
Just by looking at Virginia's trend, I would hazard a guess that Virginia will be the tipping point in 2016. It's decent amount of electoral votes helps too. That is, of course, extremely tentative.

2: Colorado
It's been the tipping-point state twice in a row. That pretty much makes it worthy of the top few right there. Nine votes isn't much, but the fact that it's been so crucial makes up for that.

3: Ohio
(Who would have guessed!) As usual, Ohio is one of the most important, thanks to it's almost-neutral-but-slightly-Republican lean, and its wealth of electoral votes.

4: Pennsylvania
It seems to be sliding towards the Republicans. It might just be fool's gold, but I betcha if the Republicans really, really tried to take this state they might just be able to, despite it's low elasticity. Turnout is key. Its 21 electoral votes would make the Republicans very likely victorious unless the Democrats grab Virginia and Ohio as well in its stead.

5: Florida
The first one that probably very likely won't be the tipping point. It is almost imperative that the Republicans take this state.

6: Iowa
Iowa doesn't have very many electoral votes, but it only leans very slightly Democratic, and it has the potential to end up being decisive if only due to it's proximity to the tipping point.

7: New Hampshire
Like Iowa, what New Hampshire lacks in electoral votes it makes up in proximity to the tipping point. It even has a high elasticity and an Independent steak, making it all the more useful as a swing state. The only thing keeping it behind Iowa is it's tiny amount of votes (4), which are very unlikely to be decisive.

This is my personal map of the states that are most likely to be decisive. Nevada and Wisconsin take 8th and 9th place, respectively. A darker red indicates a more important state.

You are using the 1992/1996/2000 count of electoral votes.

Sorry, fixed.

[Senator Cris]

how you place the map in the comment?

[Space7]

how you place the map in the comment?

Go to this page:

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php?year=2012

Use the tools on the page to make a map, then press the "Show Map Link" button, and copy paste the code that will come up into your comment.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

how you place the map in the comment?

I don't think you'd be able to post a map, since you'r

how you place the map in the comment?

Go to this page:

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php?year=2012

Use the tools on the page to make a map, then press the "Show Map Link" button, and copy paste the code that will come up into your comment.

I don't think you'd be able to post a map though, as you're under 20 posts. I tried before and it didn't work.

[Senator Cris]

thank you very much!

[ShadowRocket]

1. Ohio
2. Virginia
3. Florida
4. Pennsylvania
5. Colorado
6. North Carolina
7. Wisconsin

[TarHeelDem]

1. Ohio

Has been absolutely pivotal and will continue to be. I throw around a lot of possible 2016 match-ups in my head and Ohio is essential in almost all of them.

2. Florida

So many electoral votes, such a big impact (depending on the tickets). It's the one state I did not correctly predict in 2016. It could very well go to a Democrat again if the Republicans don't fix their relations with Latino voters.

3. Virginia

Some people see it turning bluer all the time, but the right GOP candidate could turn it around. It's a very rural state in some regards. Decent number of electoral votes.

4. North Carolina

Harder to flip than VA, but slightly more electoral votes and definitely in contention. NC loves moderate Dems, and if Hillary and her ground game campaigned properly she could easily make a strong stand there.

5. Colorado

In the off chance he was chosen as VP, Hickenlooper could keep this state blue, but I could see several Republicans, for example a VP Martinez, keeping it very competitive.

6. Wisconsin

A candidate other than hometown kid Paul Ryan might be able to turn the state. The gaffes of the Romney campaign made Wisconsin seem much less competitive than it really is.

7. Iowa

Few votes, but am important and swingable state. I think it's definitely on a blue trend, but not an unstoppable one. A strong GOP campaign could reclaim Iowa.


Christie could possibly turn New Hampshire but that won't have much influence in the grand scheme of things. I don't see any of the GOP candidates turning Pennsylvania ( for one thing, the Democratic GOTY efforts in Philly and Pittsburgh aren't going anywhere). The swing states are going to look much the same as 2012, albeit in a slightly different order.

[PolitiJunkie]

Arizona
Georgia
Texas
Montana
Missouri
Alaska
Indiana

[barfbag]

Arizona
Georgia
Texas
Montana
Missouri
Alaska
Indiana

Democrats will be lucky to make any of those a single digit race. With all things being equal based on recent elections the closest would be Arizona at about 55-44.

[Orser67]

Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Win 3 of the 5 and you have at least have a major advantage; win 4 of the 5 and you've probably won the election.

New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin are the next tier. Nevada and North Carolina are the only other plausible deciding states, imo (at least for a "generic" presidential candidate).

[eric82oslo]

Arizona
Georgia
Texas
Montana
Missouri
Alaska
Indiana

Democrats will be lucky to make any of those a single digit race. With all things being equal based on recent elections the closest would be Arizona at about 55-44.

According to polling done in 21 states so far, the closest states in terms of margin of victory with Hillary running and winning her primary are these states:

1.
*Ohio
*Kentucky (surprise eh?)
*Louisiana (could it be due to bordering Arkansas?)
*Montana
5. *Alaska
6.
*Virginia
*Georgia
*Colorado

In terms of closest to the popular vote however, these would be more likely battlegrounds:

1. *Florida
2. *New Jersey (though only if Christie runs & wins the primary)
3. *North Carolina (though only one poll has been held there so far, and Christie was not included)
4. *Wisconsin
5. *Pennsylvania
6.
*Michigan
*Minnesota
8. *New Hampshire

Ohio, Virginia and especially Colorado look surprisingly difficult for Hillary so far. On the other hand, she doesn't seem to have any problems at all in Pennsylvania, where she's running far ahead of Obama.

[pbrower2a]

More to say:

Democratic must win
Republican must win
Probably decides the election

1. Pennsylvania. Likely the tipping-point state in 2000 should Colorado slip further from the Republicans due to the growth of the Hispanic component of the electorate. 20 electoral votes.
2. Colorado. Tipping point in 2012.
3. Iowa. Tipping-point state in 2008. Usually goes with Wisconsin. Even if one went one way and the other another in 2004, the difference between them was still razor-sharp.
4. Virginia. 2008 and 2012 buck the electoral history of VA as an R-leaning state. The Republican will have to pick off some Rust Belt states that haven't gone R in a Presidential  election to win the 2016 election if he loses Virginia, and that asks for much.
5. Ohio. Tipping-point state in 2004. 18 electoral votes. The Democrat can win without it.
6. Wisconsin. Usually goes with Iowa.  
7. Florida. It depends on how close the election is and who the Governor is. 29 electoral votes, tipping-point state in 2000.

Honorable mention:

8. New Hampshire. Could have decided 2000, but only four electoral votes.
9. North Carolina. Democratic win in a near-blow-out

Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Missouri going for the D nominee all suggest a D blowout with 370 or more electoral votes. Texas or any of the (Bill) Clinton-but-never-Obama-and-by-large-margins indicates a D blowout winning 400 or more electoral votes.  

On the other side, Michigan or any New England state other than New Hampshire going R  indicates that the Republican nominee has won.