Poll finds Americans mistaken on immigration rate

[Tender Branson]

Most Americans say the number of immigrants entering the United States illegally is higher now than it was 10 years ago.

In a USA TODAY/Pew Research Center Poll, 55% of those surveyed say the numbers have increased and 27% say they are about same. Just 15% say they're lower.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitics/2013/06/25/immigration-population-size-pew-poll/2455025

Actually, it's down significantly:

http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/border_security/border_patrol/usbp_statistics/usbp_fy12_stats/appr_swb.ctt/appr_swb.pdf

[DC Al Fine]

Any thoughts about whether they would poll high or low if asked about illegal immigrants in absolute terms?

[minionofmidas]

People are incapable of estimating such things, and will believe the tenor of the media coverage if there is any, or just whatever number floated about in conversation - even on unrelated topics - if there isn't.
This is not news. We're smarter than other animals, but not nearly as smart as we think we are. And the smarter we are compared to mankind at large, the more we overestimate our own intelligence.

[Link]

People are incapable of estimating such things, and will believe the tenor of the media coverage if there is any...

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0423/Illegal-immigration-slows-almost-to-a-standstill

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/28/graph-of-the-day-illegal-immigration-has-dropped-sharply-since-2007/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465742670985642.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/us/mexican-immigration-to-united-states-slows.html?_r=0

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/05/border-patrol-boom-like-illegal-immigration-is-slowing/1#.UcnJw5z3xSI

http://www.npr.org/2013/01/29/170588501/illegal-immigration-into-u-s-slows-at-border-crossings

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/apr/15/nation/na-immigrants15

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/us-usa-borderpatrol-idUSBRE84715N20120508

http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2015518490_mexico06.html

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/02/pew.immigration/

Should these headlines have been run on a loop on blimps flying above NFL games?  What more does the media need to do?

[minionofmidas]

Run human interest stories on tv about the terrible ordeal of old white folks being uncared for because of the lack of illegal immigrants to care for them. Or at least on US government agencies now actively recruiting illegal immigrants in the forests of Nicaragua. Or something. Nobody believes - nobody reads - articles full of statistical numbers. Especially when these still state that illegal immigration continues and assume that its reduction is a good thing.

[memphis]

People also think that a quarter of all Americans are gay
http://www.gallup.com/poll/147824/Adults-Estimate-Americans-Gay-Lesbian.aspx

People are incredibly bad with numbers.
And people usually think that things are "worse" today. Even on metrics where the opposite is true.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun-homicide-rate-down-49-since-1993-peak-public-unaware/

[King]

Without American's being mistaken, there wouldn't fruitful political discourse in this country.

[Link]

And people usually think that things are "worse" today. Even on metrics where the opposite is true.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun-homicide-rate-down-49-since-1993-peak-public-unaware/

The gun thing always baffles me.  I know plenty of minorities that grew up in less than ideal situations and it never occurred to them to purchase a gun.  Then I meet middle class and upper middle class white people that need them for "protection."  Protection from what?!  Things have been getting substantially better.  If you survived the early 90s without a gun it makes even less sense to own one now.

[Badger]

Reminds me of polls showing about one-fourth of Americans believe they are in the top 2% income bracket.

[SPC]

Most Americans say the number of immigrants entering the United States illegally is higher now than it was 10 years ago.

In a USA TODAY/Pew Research Center Poll, 55% of those surveyed say the numbers have increased and 27% say they are about same. Just 15% say they're lower.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitics/2013/06/25/immigration-population-size-pew-poll/2455025

Actually, it's down significantly:

http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/border_security/border_patrol/usbp_statistics/usbp_fy12_stats/appr_swb.ctt/appr_swb.pdf

Couldn't a decline in the number of illegal immigrants apprehended be attributable to a decline in enforcement rather than a decline in immigration? Absent the contextual knowledge that immigration declined following the recession, the data doesn't say anything in and of itself.

[HansOslo]

I've read somewhere that a lot of people think that Blacks are 1/3 of the population, and that half the population of California is Asian.

[Tender Branson]

Most Americans say the number of immigrants entering the United States illegally is higher now than it was 10 years ago.

In a USA TODAY/Pew Research Center Poll, 55% of those surveyed say the numbers have increased and 27% say they are about same. Just 15% say they're lower.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitics/2013/06/25/immigration-population-size-pew-poll/2455025

Actually, it's down significantly:

http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/border_security/border_patrol/usbp_statistics/usbp_fy12_stats/appr_swb.ctt/appr_swb.pdf

Couldn't a decline in the number of illegal immigrants apprehended be attributable to a decline in enforcement rather than a decline in immigration? Absent the contextual knowledge that immigration declined following the recession, the data doesn't say anything in and of itself.

Considering that A) there are now more border patrol agents at the border than in 2000, B) the border is much better secured by walls/fences etc. and C) the border supervision is much better today than it was 13 years ago (more cams, drones, etc.), today's border patrol agents would have to be 500% more incompetent than the border patrol agents in 2000, if your point were true.

[SPC]

Most Americans say the number of immigrants entering the United States illegally is higher now than it was 10 years ago.

In a USA TODAY/Pew Research Center Poll, 55% of those surveyed say the numbers have increased and 27% say they are about same. Just 15% say they're lower.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitics/2013/06/25/immigration-population-size-pew-poll/2455025

Actually, it's down significantly:

http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/border_security/border_patrol/usbp_statistics/usbp_fy12_stats/appr_swb.ctt/appr_swb.pdf

Couldn't a decline in the number of illegal immigrants apprehended be attributable to a decline in enforcement rather than a decline in immigration? Absent the contextual knowledge that immigration declined following the recession, the data doesn't say anything in and of itself.

Considering that A) there are now more border patrol agents at the border than in 2000, B) the border is much better secured by walls/fences etc. and C) the border supervision is much better today than it was 13 years ago (more cams, drones, etc.), today's border patrol agents would have to be 500% more incompetent than the border patrol agents in 2000, if your point were true.

I'm just playing devil's advocate, because you know some right-wingers would cite that as evidence that illegals are deliberately being let in.

[memphis]

Even if there are fewer folks in the pipeline today, I suspect there are more total immigrants in the US today than there were in 2000. At first glance it's a subtle distinction, but it's actually a completely different question. The question is actually asking about rate of change. Asking the public to do mental calculus is insane. The pollster is nuts.

[Tender Branson]

Even if there are fewer folks in the pipeline today, I suspect there are more total immigrants in the US today than there were in 2000. At first glance it's a subtle distinction, but it's actually a completely different question. The question is actually asking about rate of change. Asking the public to do mental calculus is insane. The pollster is nuts.

The question can be seen in 3 ways:

The actual question by the pollster is about changes in illegal immigration compared with 2003. In this case, there has been a sharp descrease that can not only be seen in the apprehension numbers at the border to Mexico, but also because the Census Bureau released figures that showed the number of illegals dropping after the recession hit in 2007/08. But the first one is the better indicator, because not even the Census Bureau has any clue about illegals in the US.

Then, what the poll does not ask: Is overall immigration higher or lower this year than in 2003 ? Official figures say that it's about the same: In Fiscal Year 2002, 1.059.356 legal permanent residents were granted, in FY 2012 it was 1.031.631. But because the overall population grew in the past 10 years, the immigration rate relative to the overall population has still fallen ...

And finally, we would have to take into account emigration, which the US does not track, to get a clue how net migration rates (immigration minus emigration) changed over the past 10 years.

Finally, it can be said that immigration is generally down compared with the early 2000s, because A) illegal immigration is considerably down and B) legal immigration is virtually stable but also down relative to the population.

[Link]

Run human interest stories on tv about the terrible ordeal of old white folks being uncared for because of the lack of illegal immigrants to care for them.

Plenty of human interest stories have been written.  When the recession hit and things were humming along well in Brazil I was reading stories about immigrants decamping and going back to their home countries because there was actually more opportunity there.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/02/world/la-fg-brazil-return-20110902

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/nyregion/04brazilians.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Again, I don't know what more the press can do.

[DC Al Fine]

I've read somewhere that a lot of people think that Blacks are 1/3 of the population, and that half the population of California is Asian.

My personal favourite was the one where something like 10% of Americans think 1/2 the population is homosexual.