Andrew Cuomo/Heidi Heitkamp vs Susana Martinez/Mike Lee

[NewYorkExpress]

Who wins and why?

[heatmaster]

Dunno!...ask me in October of 2016, and then it's down to a 50/50 proposition!!

[Vosem]

Martinez is the stronger candidate than Cuomo, but in a 50/50 matchup like this I'm inclined to say Cuomo carries the Midwest except for IN (winning OH and PA) and thus securing victory. Even if Martinez wins the entire Southwest between CA and TX and everything south of DC, she would still lose 270-268. But, in all honesty, this ticket would lose either NV or VA in a neutral year on top of that and Cuomo would win in the high 270s/low 280s.

But Mike Lee is a senseless Veep choice. For any presidential candidate in the Republican Party, there is no one who can be helped by Mike Lee. Martinez herself needs someone from the Midwest, preferably a white guy. Pence would be a good running mate for her. Cuomo/Heitkamp, on the other hand, are paired up well; that would be a formidable ticket.

[Mister Mets]

Interesting tickets. I think Martinez is the stronger candidate, and I expect the 2016 cycle to favor Republicans.

I'll split the states into different categories, based on the circumstances under which a party can win.

If the electoral vote difference is under five points, they should win all the leaning and safe seats.

Safe Democratic...(186 electoral votes)
New York, California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

Leaning Democratic...(31 electoral votes)
Michigan, Minnesota

Toss-Up Favoring Democratic...(49 electoral cotes)
Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Toss-Up Favoring Republicans...(61 electoral votes)
Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida

Leaning Republican....(56 electoral votes)
Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska's most liberal congressional district, North Carolina, New Mexico

Safe Republican....(165 electoral votes)
Tennessee, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

I think Martinez is the favorite to win New Mexico. A ticket with a Hispanic Western Governor, and a Mormon Westerner also has a slight edge in Nevada.

With his national reputation, Cuomo would be strong in Florida. A lot of old New Yorkers remember his father fondly. I would also expect him to do well in the Rust Belt, and in Virginia.

Heitkamp would probably spend most of her time in Nevada, Colorado and Iowa.

[Mister Mets]

Martinez is the stronger candidate than Cuomo, but in a 50/50 matchup like this I'm inclined to say Cuomo carries the Midwest except for IN (winning OH and PA) and thus securing victory. Even if Martinez wins the entire Southwest between CA and TX and everything south of DC, she would still lose 270-268. But, in all honesty, this ticket would lose either NV or VA in a neutral year on top of that and Cuomo would win in the high 270s/low 280s.

But Mike Lee is a senseless Veep choice. For any presidential candidate in the Republican Party, there is no one who can be helped by Mike Lee. Martinez herself needs someone from the Midwest, preferably a white guy. Pence would be a good running mate for her. Cuomo/Heitkamp, on the other hand, are paired up well; that would be a formidable ticket.

Heitkamp would be a good running mate for Cuomo, as a western moderate who could appeal to women, and argue expertise on law and order due to her previous work as state attorney general (which she shares with Cuomo.)

Lee isn't the worst pick. The base likes him. He's young and intelligent, which can be useful after the likes of George W Bush, Sarah Palin and Rick Perry. And he'll have legislative experience to round out the ticket.

But Susanna Martinez would probably have better choices available. One advantage of choosing a Senator is that he'll be able to help with congressional relations, but Lee was elected to office by primarying an incumbent, who was popular among Senate Republicans. A member of the Tea Party Caucus could also backfire.

Thune would be a better choice.
Rob Portman would help in Ohio. Much would depend on how social conservatives feel about gay marriage in three years. His financial expertise is more important to Martinez than Romney.
Toomey has gotten press, and comes from a key swing state.
Christie would help in the rust belt, although something would have to happen to drive up his negatives for Martinez to beat him in a primary.
Huntsman would have foreign policy experience, as well as bipartisan credentials.

[Michaelf7777777]

Andrew Cuomo/ Heidi Heitkamp - 274 EV's
Susana Martinez/ Mike Lee - 264 EV's