Expecting Rick Scott to lose: rational or premature?

[old timey villain]

Reasons it's rational

1) Scott has consistently been ranked as one of the most unpopular governors in America. His approval rating has been dismal for nearly two years.

2) Democrats can win statewide in Florida in the right circumstances. Barack Obama and Bill Nelson come to mind.

3) Crist, as the frontrunner for Dems, is well known in Florida and currently leads Scott in several polls.

Reasons it's premature:

1) Rick Scott will spend a HUGE amount of money for his reelection campaign, and if he uses it right it might change the nature of the race.

2) Democrats can win statewide in Florida, but very rarely do they win in midterm years.

3) Crist will be dogged by criticisms of his party switching and rumors of his sexuality throughout the entire campaign, should he be the Dem's nominee. He's far from a perfect candidate.

4) Florida's economy is slowly improving which could buoy Scott's popularity in the next year and a half.


I guess we'll have to see....

[pbrower2a]

Rick Scott would need a three-way split of the popular vote... and gain some. Figuring that he'd have to win something like 38-34-28 because he has a very low ceiling, he would have to depend upon a near-even split among two opponents. His supporters would have to manipulate support for his opponents, which would be difficult.

He would have a money advantage. Outside interests might love him so long as he promises to bleed the state for him without getting caught. A warning: digital camcorders are small enough to make a recording of a cynical spiel possible to someone willing to risk becoming alligator food.

If he is as unpopular a year from now as he is now, he most likely does what incumbents with approval ratings do with approval ratings in the mid-30s or lower. They 'choose not to run for re-election' because they have more important concerns. 
 

[Donerail]

Scott is a very very wealthy man who's able to self-fund his entire campaign (reason 1) and bury whoever the Florida Democratic Party (reason 2) puts up during this midterm (reason 3) in an avalanche of negative ads (reason 4); his move to the center (reason 5) and eventual economic uptick (reason 6) will allow his approvals to rise further.

[Dereich]

Premature for reasons stated by Sjoyce. The dislike of Rick Scott is pretty baseless; people just don't like him in general and never have. Months of 10 Scott ads for every 1 Crist ad will draw reluctant Republicans and right-leaners back to Scott. Also, betting that the Florida Democratic party will do many many stupid things and offend swing voters is always a safe bet.

[morgieb]

Given what people say about the FDP, probably somewhat premature, but I still expect him to lose.

[Donerail]

The dislike of Rick Scott is pretty baseless; people just don't like him in general and never have.

Involved in the biggest Medicare fraud settlement in history, trying to put golf courses in state parks, reducing pay for teachers, firefighters, and police while refurbishing his office, possibly destroying coral reefs, and refusing to extend early voting. There's a lot there to not like.

[Morning in Atlas]

Scott is a very very wealthy man who's able to self-fund his entire campaign (reason 1) and bury whoever the Florida Democratic Party (reason 2) puts up during this midterm (reason 3) in an avalanche of negative ads (reason 4); his move to the center (reason 5) and eventual economic uptick (reason 6) will allow his approvals to rise further.

This this this this this. Plus the fact that the Democratic primary could get bloody too. (reason 7) Alex Sink already doesn't have much confidence in him, and if Crist does win after a bloody primary, base turnout could be depressed (reason eight).

[Ogre Mage]

Scott is not yet a Dead Man Walking, but the odds are against him winning reelection.  My prediction is that both Scott and LePage will be ousted from office in 2014.

[Mechaman]

Not sure

I mean yeah he's unpopular and incompetent, however it says a lot about how weak the Florida Democratic Party is if Lord Voldemort can get elected Governor.

[Ogre Mage]

Not sure

I mean yeah he's unpopular and incompetent, however it says a lot about how weak the Florida Democratic Party is if Lord Voldemort can get elected Governor.

2010 was a huge GOP wave year and he won by 1%.  I don't think he can count on such a favorable political environment this time.

[pbrower2a]

March 19, 2013

Scott trails Crist by 12 points

Rick Scott's approval numbers have seen no improvement over the last two months, even after his decision to allow Medicaid expansion in Florida. 33% of voters continue to approve of the job he's doing to 57% who disapprove. Although his overall numbers are the same he has seen a slight improvement with Democrats (from 21/71 to 23/69) and a slight downgrade with Republicans (from 49/38 to 46/42).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/scott-trails-crist-by-12-points.html#more

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rational.  Hopefully he'll be primaried, but I wouldn't lose sleep over Democrats winning the governor's race in Florida next uear.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Would Crist be term-limited in 2018? We need to mansion in 2020 to fix the vicious gerrymander. If he can't it's preferable to pick Sink.

[Donerail]

Would Crist be term-limited in 2018? We need to mansion in 2020 to fix the vicious gerrymander. If he can't it's preferable to pick Sink.

No, he would not be - it's two consecutive terms. If he won in 2014/18 he could run again in 2026 for 8 years if he wanted. And the gerrymander isn't really 'vicious'; it's actually rather generous to Democrats. Weatherford could have done a lot worse.

[publicunofficial]

Would Crist be term-limited in 2018? We need to mansion in 2020 to fix the vicious gerrymander. If he can't it's preferable to pick Sink.

No, he would not be - it's two consecutive terms. If he won in 2014/18 he could run again in 2026 for 8 years if he wanted. And the gerrymander isn't really 'vicious'; it's actually rather generous to Democrats. Weatherford could have done a lot worse.

Agreed. Compared to North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Florida seems pretty damn fair.

[Beet]

Would Crist be term-limited in 2018? We need to mansion in 2020 to fix the vicious gerrymander. If he can't it's preferable to pick Sink.

I think we should run someone else - whether it's Sink or not, if Crist is not going to govern as a Democrat. We've waited too long for the Florida Governorship to end up with a moderate Republican. Besides, isn't the state legislature gerrymandered too? Last I saw the Republicans had something like 2-1 majorities in this blue state.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Would Crist be term-limited in 2018? We need to mansion in 2020 to fix the vicious gerrymander. If he can't it's preferable to pick Sink.

No, he would not be - it's two consecutive terms. If he won in 2014/18 he could run again in 2026 for 8 years if he wanted. And the gerrymander isn't really 'vicious'; it's actually rather generous to Democrats. Weatherford could have done a lot worse.

Agreed. Compared to North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Florida seems pretty damn fair.

In fairness, those states' maps exist in a category beyond the normal vicious gerrymander. They're practically works of art. Horrible, obscene art. Which I think the Supreme Court has ruled is a contradiction in terms.

[Donerail]

Would Crist be term-limited in 2018? We need to mansion in 2020 to fix the vicious gerrymander. If he can't it's preferable to pick Sink.

I think we should run someone else - whether it's Sink or not, if Crist is not going to govern as a Democrat. We've waited too long for the Florida Governorship to end up with a moderate Republican. Besides, isn't the state legislature gerrymandered too? Last I saw the Republicans had something like 2-1 majorities in this blue state.

You really have nobody else but Crist. And the state legislature isn't gerrymandered horribly; the Democrats could take control of it in a few exceptionally good years. It'd be rather difficult to draw a D-majority map without gerrymandering yourself; Weatherford's map is fair enough.

[greenforest32]

A more effective target (via lawsuit?) could be Florida's terrible felony disenfranchisement: http://fcir.org/2012/08/13/few-felons-regain-right-to-vote-in-florida/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.sentencingproject.org/detail/news.cfm?news_id=1334

^^^

Has he been keeping this up? I couldn't find information on 2012's number of restorations.

Florida's relative position in the Electoral College makes me think Republicans are going all in here in 2014 considering the "benefits" a GOP governor can provide for 2016 voting changes.

[sg0508]

Sadly, this is America.  Don't bet against the $$$.  We've learned that over and over and over.

[Dereich]

A more effective target (via lawsuit?) could be Florida's terrible felony disenfranchisement: http://fcir.org/2012/08/13/few-felons-regain-right-to-vote-in-florida/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.sentencingproject.org/detail/news.cfm?news_id=1334

^^^

Has he been keeping this up? I couldn't find information on 2012's number of restorations.

Florida's relative position in the Electoral College makes me think Republicans are going all in here in 2014 considering the "benefits" a GOP governor can provide for 2016 voting changes.

The one consistent thing about Florida voters is that they are tough on crime. Charlie Crist got his carrier off the ground by promoting harsher penalties for criminals by bringing back chain gangs. Mass enfranchisement of felons would be a surefire way for Crist or any Democrat to lose the next election.

[Miles]

I haven't heard this one before. Bill Nelson is being encouraged to run against Scott. He says he won't though.

[fezzyfestoon]

Considering the racial makeup of ex-felons, this is pretty disturbing.