Results of mainline Protestants or non-Evangelical whites

[nclib]

Anyone know the results or could guess by state? I remember making a 2008 map of non-Evangelical whites, but I can't find it.

[SingingAnalyst]

Here's my guesses (since I obtained these by modifying the actual maps, it is possible the maps look more like the actual results than they should).

1960: Nixon 476 EV, Kennedy 53 EV, Unpledged 8

1964: I wasn't able to post a map but Johnson 401, Goldwater 137, with Goldwater adding IN, NC, TN, AR, NE, KS, ID.

2012: Romney picks up OH, VA, FL, still loses 272-266.

Here's my guess as to nationwide vote:
1960: 35/65
1964: 54/46
1968: 32/51/17
1972: 26/72
1976: 40/58
1980: 30/63/6
1984: 28/71
1988: 35/64
1992: 35/44/20
1996: 44/45/9
2000: 44/53
2004: 45/54
2008: 49/50
2012: 47/51

[SingingAnalyst]

You're probably right. I tried to take into account the fact that mainline Protestants did not "go liberal" until well into the 1960s, and that Goldwater would have more appeal especially outside New England. Perhaps it depends on the criteria. NCC membership? Then ELCA Lutherans are in but LCMS Lutherans are not. I'm sure Southern Baptists were solidly for Carter in '76 and Dutch Christian Reformed voters, who are concentrated in west Michigan, were just as solidly for Ford. Fascinating discussion! So is the disappearance of the party divide between White mainline Protestants and White non-Hispanic Catholics.

[All Along The Watchtower]

As you can see, Republican presidential nominees won 54-55% of white non-evangelical Protestants from 2004 to 2012. Pretty stable.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Bush did better with mormons than Romney? 

[SingingAnalyst]

The leaders of mainline protestant churches are way more liberal than the congregants.  Where I live, the church I go to (Presbyterian) is quite liberal in theology yet most of the people who go there are elderly, socially conservative, and solid GOP voters.

Astute observation. Edmund Cohen points out in his 1986 book "The Mind of the Bible Believer" that these churches were able to hold on to older members by mincing words in the pulpit enough so that they wouldn't notice that something other than "old time gospel" was being preached. Today, of course, such congregations are increasingly racially integrated and in many cases welcoming of openly gay members. After the 1968 election, when white Catholics voted strongly for Humphrey and white Protestants for Nixon, it would have seemed inconceivable that soon white Catholics would be voting more Republican than white mainline Protestants. Incidentally, while I believe 1968 to be a turning point, the disappearance and eventual reversal of the Catholic/mainline Protestant divide among whites had yet to manifest itself in 1968.