Texas is a tough nut to crack...

[Person Man]

A lot of it has to do with an overwhelming amount of white conservatives outnumbering the minority population.

To make matters worse for the Democrats a sizable amount of minorities here are Evangelical Protestant, it's perhaps one (if not the only) place in the USA that you'll see ethnic minority Evangelicals in a large amount.

These in my opinion are what's keeping the state red.

So, it seems that the Texas GOP knew that this wave was coming and they probably coordinate very well with their main constitituents and so they probably started actively converting minorities in the 90s. That's probably why a lot of minorities don't vote in Texas. They really don't like the racism of the Republican Party, but feel it would be against their religion to vote against them. Or it could be that the Hispanics that just come in from Chihuahua  and places like that are more religious than other Mexicans that perhaps come from places like Mexico City, Oaxaca or the Yucatan and settle in places like Colorado, Nevada or Ohio.

Republicans are NOT racist, and if they are, it's only in the public perception.

Public perception is a really bad thing, isn't it? I know better, but a lot of people don't. (granted, there ARE racists, and I'm willing to bet that, while Republicans aren't racist, racists are Republicans. It happens. Just like Democrats and Socialists)

The thing is that policies (like opposition to AA and wanting to cut entitlement programs) come across as racist. Your party needs to communicate your ideas better, though dropping the AA part of your platform entirely will be a big help. And even then, there will always be the uneducated racists giving the rest of your party a bad name. But you can distance yourself from them, from the birthers and the people who think Obama's this muslim socialist. If your party works at it, the image could be scrubbed as early as 2016.

I agree that we have a communication problem, but I reject the notion that racists are Republicans.  Most of them probably are Indepemdent or members of some extreme third party.

I used to think that too but the events of the past 10 years have shown that a good 20% of voters are at least somewhat racist but I would also say that 15% of voters are socialists. That would be about two thirds of the so-called TEA Party and three fifths of self-identified liberals.

And where is your evidence?  Not supporting Obama doesn't make you a racist, and being a liberal doesn't mean you don't believe in capitalism.  Where is this "evidence over the past 10 years" that you're citing?  And if 2/3 of Tea Partiers are racist, then why are minority politicians like Allen West, Tim Scott, and Marco Rubio so popular among Tea Partiers?

Uncle Toms. People like West spew off the same ignorant, racist rhetoric about black people. The Tea Party loves him because he says what they all think and as a black man, they think it gives their views credence.

You realize just what a racist statement that is?  And what have those guys said about blacks that's racist?  I can't think of anything.
And BTW, Rubio's dad was Cuban.

That doesn't mean anything. Many Cubans are white. For example, one of my childhood friends was Cuban and he and his family were white.

[BaldEagle1991]

One big factor into Texas' GOP lean is that right after the oil, the defense/military industry is what's employing a lot of Texans.

[Person Man]

One big factor into Texas' GOP lean is that right after the oil, the defense/military industry is what's employing a lot of Texans.

That seems to be one thing besides Evangelicals that keep places red... oil rigs and coal mines. Its kinda like the Unions of the old New Deal Coalition, but even more powerful and heavily depended. Perhaps the way to finally force the Republicans to become more reasonable would be to do what Nixon and Reagan inspired America to do with Unions through outsourcing, workplace capitulation rights and punitive mass layoffs but Democrats can inspire the nation to get rid of coal and oil through greater dependence on Natural Gas, Renewable Resources and perhaps even Nuclear Power....and of course continued tighter regulations on coal and oil.

[BaldEagle1991]

One big factor into Texas' GOP lean is that right after the oil, the defense/military industry is what's employing a lot of Texans.

That seems to be one thing besides Evangelicals that keep places red... oil rigs and coal mines. Its kinda like the Unions of the old New Deal Coalition, but even more powerful and heavily depended. Perhaps the way to finally force the Republicans to become more reasonable would be to do what Nixon and Reagan inspired America to do with Unions through outsourcing, workplace capitulation rights and punitive mass layoffs but Democrats can inspire the nation to get rid of coal and oil through greater dependence on Natural Gas, Renewable Resources and perhaps even Nuclear Power....and of course continued tighter regulations on coal and oil.

Well that....but then again if you get rid of all the oil, coal out of Texas you'll just get nothing but military people. They're just as red.

[Franknburger]

One big factor into Texas' GOP lean is that right after the oil, the defense/military industry is what's employing a lot of Texans.

That seems to be one thing besides Evangelicals that keep places red... oil rigs and coal mines. Its kinda like the Unions of the old New Deal Coalition, but even more powerful and heavily depended. Perhaps the way to finally force the Republicans to become more reasonable would be to do what Nixon and Reagan inspired America to do with Unions through outsourcing, workplace capitulation rights and punitive mass layoffs but Democrats can inspire the nation to get rid of coal and oil through greater dependence on Natural Gas, Renewable Resources and perhaps even Nuclear Power....and of course continued tighter regulations on coal and oil.

In fact, it seems to be a bit to the opposite. If you look at the Texas counties that have swung to Obama in 2012, or at least are trending D, you find that, aside from the obvious ones along the Mexican border, there is quite a concentration of D-swings/trends along and close to the New Mexico frontier. Now, a look on this map of oil ressources in Texas http://geology.com/research/images/barnett-shale-formation-map-lg.jpg
shows that many of the a/m D-trending counties are oil counties (often with hardly any other economic base).

As to why, I myself am still a bit puzzled. The three most likely explanations I could come up with so far are:
1.) Oil exploration in that area of Texas and NM  has only become profitable recently with the advance of new drilling & fracking technologies, plus the option to sell not only the oil, but also the natural gas found there. In other words - these c**nties are likely to benefit from anti-coal / pro natural gas politics.
2.) Given the current oil exploration boom accross several parts of the US, skilled labour should be somewhat short, opening employment opportunities for Latino (Mexican) immigrants and thus shifting the demographic composition of these (traditionally very sparsely populated) counties.
3.) Exposure to the NM media market (actually, candidates using the Lubbock media market to reach into Eastern New Mexico), and thus more of a battleground region than the remainder of the state.

On a side note: What seems to quite have an influence on the rural vote in Texas is the presence of prisons in a county (and guess in which direction such 'prison counties' lean ...)

[Siloch]

Public perception is a really bad thing, isn't it? I know better, but a lot of people don't. (granted, there ARE racists, and I'm willing to bet that, while Republicans aren't racist, racists are Republicans. It happens. Just like Democrats and Socialists)

The thing is that policies (like opposition to AA and wanting to cut entitlement programs) come across as racist. Your party needs to communicate your ideas better, though dropping the AA part of your platform entirely will be a big help. And even then, there will always be the uneducated racists giving the rest of your party a bad name. But you can distance yourself from them, from the birthers and the people who think Obama's this muslim socialist. If your party works at it, the image could be scrubbed as early as 2016.

I think Democrats are more racist, Democrats focus on race WAY more than Republicans. Democrats are the ones on sites like this gloating that non-whites and hispanics are making Republicans and white people powerless in the USA, if that is not racism what is?

Have you seen the "White people mourning Romney" tumblr and all the racist comments on that from Democrats about white people.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

One big factor into Texas' GOP lean is that right after the oil, the defense/military industry is what's employing a lot of Texans.

That seems to be one thing besides Evangelicals that keep places red... oil rigs and coal mines. Its kinda like the Unions of the old New Deal Coalition, but even more powerful and heavily depended. Perhaps the way to finally force the Republicans to become more reasonable would be to do what Nixon and Reagan inspired America to do with Unions through outsourcing, workplace capitulation rights and punitive mass layoffs but Democrats can inspire the nation to get rid of coal and oil through greater dependence on Natural Gas, Renewable Resources and perhaps even Nuclear Power....and of course continued tighter regulations on coal and oil.

You're missing the point that most liberals miss about the oil and coal industries. They're very competitive industries that can't differentiate their product. If you pass a regulation that increases their costs, they can't pass those on to the consumers because there are plenty of oil drillers and coal miners in China and Australia and the Middle East who don't have to abide by those regulations and don't have those costs. I get tired of hearing people talking about the "billions of dollars in profits" that oil companies make without looking at the profit margins.

If you pass a law requiring more safety inspections at coal mines, that means pulling every single man out of that mine and being offline likely for hours. Depending on the size of the mine, that safety inspection could cost hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost revenue.

Compare that to reliably Democratic industries. If you pass a law increasing the cost of lawyers, they can pass that cost on to their clients and not lose all their business; lawyers aren't interchangeable widgets. If you pass a law increasing the cost of education, who cares? They don't have to turn a profit and they can get as much revenue as they want from taxes. Microsoft doesn't care if you raise the minimum wage; they hire engineers who make six figures a year. Google doesn't care if they're required to give all their employees health insurance; they're practically the only game in town in that department.

It's not the oil and coal themselves that make those people Republican. It's the fact that government involvement in their industries impacts them very differently than in a lot of other industries.

[ingemann]

Before any one can answer the question why Texas a minority-majority state vote Republican, one things need to be answered:

What is a minority? Do people really think that a either monolingual or primary English speaking Hispanic with one white parent and attending a "White" church really count as member of a minority community? Why should this person vote significant different from a similar non-Hispanic White person. Take George Zimmerman who are obvious non-White at first sight, but suddenly became White in the public debate, when he shot a Black teenager. In American statistic he is defined as part of a minority, but clearly that identity can change fast.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

[old timey villain]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

Yes, it appears that the Hispanics who are more likely to vote are much more assimilated and vote like the rest of white Texans (and many I'm sure consider themselves white) and the ones who are less likely to vote are more recent immigrants who would probably vote Democrat.

And of course, we have to remember that Hispanics aren't nearly as monolithic as black voters, and they never will be. Black people are bound together by the shared legacy of slavery and segregation. Hispanics in this country have no collective experience, so politics vary along social, religious, class, ideological and regional lines. So it's no surprise that Hispanics in Texas will probably always be more conservative than Hispanics in California for example.

Honestly, with all the talk of Demographic changes shifting states, I think this is overstated in Texas. What will turn Texas blue or purple will be the continued growth of the cities, especially Austin Dallas and Houston. If these cities grow, regardless of who is moving there, TX will become competitive. Cities have a way of turning people into Democrats, no matter what their race is.

[BaldEagle1991]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

They're practically white people with Hispanic surnames. I know a lot of them didn't check "Hispanic origin" on the census 3 years ago, they mainly checked "White" or both "White" and "Hispanic origin" (thus possibly giving a notion there's a lot of Hispanics in Texas but really they're probably not). Plus they're mostly Protestant and Evangelical, very assimilated people.

Yes, it appears that the Hispanics who are more likely to vote are much more assimilated and vote like the rest of white Texans (and many I'm sure consider themselves white) and the ones who are less likely to vote are more recent immigrants who would probably vote Democrat.

And of course, we have to remember that Hispanics aren't nearly as monolithic as black voters, and they never will be. Black people are bound together by the shared legacy of slavery and segregation. Hispanics in this country have no collective experience, so politics vary along social, religious, class, ideological and regional lines. So it's no surprise that Hispanics in Texas will probably always be more conservative than Hispanics in California for example.

Honestly, with all the talk of Demographic changes shifting states, I think this is overstated in Texas. What will turn Texas blue or purple will be the continued growth of the cities, especially Austin Dallas and Houston. If these cities grow, regardless of who is moving there, TX will become competitive. Cities have a way of turning people into Democrats, no matter what their race is.

The only reason is mainly because of what I said about a large ethnic minority Evangelical population.

But you're right about the cities turning people Democratic though. Unless the Republicans do an outreach strategy in the cities (which is likely in 2016).

[old timey villain]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

They're practically white people with Hispanic surnames. I know a lot of them didn't check "Hispanic origin" on the census 3 years ago, they mainly checked "White" or both "White" and "Hispanic origin" (thus possibly giving a notion there's a lot of Hispanics in Texas but really they're probably not). Plus they're mostly Protestant and Evangelical, very assimilated people.

In the 2010 Census Texas was 45% Non Hispanic white, but it was also 70% white, which means that many of those Hispanics also checked "white" on the census box and see themselves as basically white. In the south, identifying as white strongly correlates with voting Republican, since our region is so racially polarized.

[All Along The Watchtower]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

They're practically white people with Hispanic surnames. I know a lot of them didn't check "Hispanic origin" on the census 3 years ago, they mainly checked "White" or both "White" and "Hispanic origin" (thus possibly giving a notion there's a lot of Hispanics in Texas but really they're probably not). Plus they're mostly Protestant and Evangelical, very assimilated people.

In the 2010 Census Texas was 45% Non Hispanic white, but it was also 70% white, which means that many of those Hispanics also checked "white" on the census box and see themselves as basically white. In the south, identifying as white strongly correlates with voting Republican, since our region is so racially polarized.

Is West Texas really "The South" though, or is more the Southwest?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Texas is so large that it's tough to put it in one region. Everything east of the Houston/Dallas metros is clearly Southern, while the Dallas metro and the Red River area could be put in the Great Plains. Southern and Western Texas more resembles the Southwest. It's generally considered Southern because it was in the Confederacy and grew lots of cotton.

[BaldEagle1991]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

They're practically white people with Hispanic surnames. I know a lot of them didn't check "Hispanic origin" on the census 3 years ago, they mainly checked "White" or both "White" and "Hispanic origin" (thus possibly giving a notion there's a lot of Hispanics in Texas but really they're probably not). Plus they're mostly Protestant and Evangelical, very assimilated people.

In the 2010 Census Texas was 45% Non Hispanic white, but it was also 70% white, which means that many of those Hispanics also checked "white" on the census box and see themselves as basically white.

My point exactly. The more I look at it I'm beginning to think the Hispanic population in TX is over counted.

[BaldEagle1991]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

They're practically white people with Hispanic surnames. I know a lot of them didn't check "Hispanic origin" on the census 3 years ago, they mainly checked "White" or both "White" and "Hispanic origin" (thus possibly giving a notion there's a lot of Hispanics in Texas but really they're probably not). Plus they're mostly Protestant and Evangelical, very assimilated people.

In the 2010 Census Texas was 45% Non Hispanic white, but it was also 70% white, which means that many of those Hispanics also checked "white" on the census box and see themselves as basically white. In the south, identifying as white strongly correlates with voting Republican, since our region is so racially polarized.

Is West Texas really "The South" though, or is more the Southwest?

It's mostly the South because it's in the Bible Belt, the term "y'all" is often used, country music scenes are rampant, cheesy grits and chicken fried steak are common, and most importantly it seceded to the Confederacy.

Although some parts are more Southwestern, much like West Texas in particular.

[old timey villain]

What a lot of people forget is that a sizable portion of Hispanics in Texas are old Tejanos, who have basically no connection to Mexico, consider themselves to be "American", and don't especially like Mexican immigrants. They would tend to vote Republican as much as any other Texan.

They're practically white people with Hispanic surnames. I know a lot of them didn't check "Hispanic origin" on the census 3 years ago, they mainly checked "White" or both "White" and "Hispanic origin" (thus possibly giving a notion there's a lot of Hispanics in Texas but really they're probably not). Plus they're mostly Protestant and Evangelical, very assimilated people.

In the 2010 Census Texas was 45% Non Hispanic white, but it was also 70% white, which means that many of those Hispanics also checked "white" on the census box and see themselves as basically white.

My point exactly. The more I look at it I'm beginning to think the Hispanic population in TX is over counted.

It's not that the population is over sampled, it's just that many Texans of Hispanic descent might consider themselves more culturally white than Hispanic.