Will California's tax revenue decline in 2013?

[DC Al Fine]

I say yes. California is hemorraging residents and higher taxes will exacerbate this problem.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

California is not "hemorrhaging" residents -- it's growing at the same pace (+1% per year) the rest of the country is (+0.9% per year). Besides, it's silly to say that a hike in taxes on millionaires will drive revenues lower, especially in the first year. Not even close. You're off by billions.

The one thing California has going for it is that it really isn't like anywhere else. The culture is unique, the weather is darn near perfect (in the areas rich people live), and the scenery can be absolutely breathtaking. And yeah, if you want to be a player in the tech or entertainment industry, you really need to be here. Even Los Angeles is finding a place in the new social media/web-powered economy with growth in tech.

The state of California has a monopoly on "living in California." If you want the California experience, you have to pay the California price. And believe me, rich people (who can easily afford it) will. It's an amazing state.

ON EDIT: The New York Times just ran a piece a couple weeks ago on California's significantly improving economic outlook.

[LastVoter]

No, we are starting another housing boom, and you know who will be the primary beneficiary of that.

[DC Al Fine]

@ FormerModerate

Whoops, I guess I mixed California up with somewhere else... perhaps Michigan.

@Moderate Coward

I'll believe it when I see it.

[bedstuy]

No way.  Improving economy + higher taxes is going to have an effect.  Theoretically you could be right in the long term, but not in the short term.

I think California expects tax revenue to go up this next fiscal year by $10 billion or so.  It's difficult to be off by $10 billion. 

[opebo]

Haha, no.  Boom's coming, centered (as always in capitalism) on the high-end.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

DC Al might have been reading this  http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Californias-Population-Moving-Out-182914961.html

[Sbane]

DC Al might have been reading this  http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Californias-Population-Moving-Out-182914961.html

There is still a lot of immigration into the state (including a lot of well skilled or already wealthy Asians) and the domestic outmigration is hyped up. Numerically it is going to be high because California is an enormous state. In terms of percentage, California is losing less population than most Midwestern states, most of which are controlled by Republicans. And a lot of those moving out are olds who cashed in on high home prices and moved to Arizona/Nevada but still return every opportunity they get.

Texas is gaining a lot of population because it is a cheap state yet it has two large cities companies can find a lot of workers in. Also lots of growth in Austin due to UT. Still, you want to find the latest technological advances, you better be in California. It's the people working in low end manufacturing and construction who are not able to live the Californian dream.

[Sbane]

As for the tax hike on Millionaire's, perhaps it will cause more small businesses to become corporations since the corporate rate didn't go up. Otherwise I don't see much more of an effect. The sales tax hike will raise more revenue than the income tax hike though, but republicans won't complain about that since they don't care about the middle class.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fail. California's population this decade has been growing about 0.2% per year above the national average. California's fiscal issues won't all be solved, but they'll clearly be in much better shape next year.

[King]

Tax rates aren't why most normal people live places.