how bad would the 1970 senate elections have been had Humphrey won?

[freepcrusher]

one thing i've wondered about the Class I seats is that the democrats have always benefitted from a lot of luck. After 1958 they held an insane number of Class I seats. The dems benefitted in 1964 from LBJ on the ticket and in 1970 and 1982 with a republican presidential midterm. 1976 and 1988 were neutral years for both parties. Even in 2012, when it was thought that the democrats could lose up to a half-dozen seats, they actually gained two.

So my question is, how much of a senate bloodbath would there be is Humphrey was president? Here's my guess:
Arizona – Fannin (R) wins re-election. No change
California – Murphy (R) wins re-election instead of losing
Connecticut - Weicker (R) not only wins but gets to 50%
Delaware – Roth (R) wins. No change
Florida – Cramer (R) defeats Chiles (D)
Hawaii - Fong (R) reelected. No change
Indiana – Roudebush (R) unseats Hartke (D)
Maine – Muskie (D) reelected. No change
Maryland – Beall (R) unseats Tydings (D). Same as in 1970
Massachusetts – Kennedy (D) wins with around 55% instead of 60%; especially after the Kopechne incident
Michigan – Hart (D) reelected. No change
Minnesota – Donald Fraser (D) runs for McCarthy's old seat and wins narrowly.
Mississippi – Stennis (D) wins re-election. No change
Missouri – Danforth (R) unseats Symington (D)
Montana – Mansfield (D) reelected. No change
Nebraska – Hruska (R) reelected. Ironically this seat would not go republican for 42 years.
Nevada – Cannon (D) reelected. No change
New Jersey – Williams (D) reelected. No change
New Mexico – Montoya (D) reelected. No change
New York – Buckley (C) wins election but  with 45-50 percent
North Dakota – Burdick (D) reelected. No change
Ohio – Taft (R) defeats Metzenbaum in open seat. No change
Pennsylvania  - Scott (R) wins reelection. No change
Rhode Island – Pastore (D) reelected. No change
Tennessee – my guess is that Gore (D) is scared into retirement and the democrats run someone like Dick Fulton. But Brock still picks up the open seat.
Texas – Bush (R) defeats Bentsen (D) for a republican pickup
Utah – Moss (D) unseated.
Vermont – Prouty (R) reelected. No change
Virginia – Byrd reelected as Independent. No change
Washington – Scoop reelected. No change
West Virginia – Byrd (D) reelected. No change
Wisconsin – Without a president Nixon, my guess is that Mel Laird (R) runs against Proxmire (D). Mr Golden Fleece probably narrowly wins
Wyoming – McGee (D) unseated.

Under this result the senate would be 50 Rs, 48 Ds, 1 Independent and 1 Conservative. I also forgot there was a special senate election that year. If Humphrey was president, my guess is that Adlai Stevenson wouldn't have won.

[badgate]

Why do you have Humphrey narrowly winning a senate seat two years after he was hypothetically elected?


Also would you mind posting what the senate would look like? How many Republicans/Democrats would there be?

[freepcrusher]

Why do you have Humphrey narrowly winning a senate seat two years after he was hypothetically elected?


Also would you mind posting what the senate would look like? How many Republicans/Democrats would there be?

my bad i forgot. I'll change it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Vermont – Prouty (D) reelected. No change

Does anyone else see the problem here? or does he pull a Jeffords for some reason?

[freepcrusher]

Vermont – Prouty (D) reelected. No change

Does anyone else see the problem here? or does he pull a Jeffords for some reason?

all right. fixed.

[freepcrusher]

also does anyone know why Charles Goodell's voting record swung so dramatically to the left when becoming senator? His ADA ratings made him one of the most conservative members of the NY Delegation but when he was appointed senator; he started voting more like Javits.