Predict the latest date Hillary Clinton will announce her 2016 intentions?

[milhouse24]

What is the latest Date that Hillary can announce her 2016 presidential candidacy? 

I actually think she has to do it sooner rather than later, because O'Malley and Biden will soon start fundraising and getting commitments for their warchest. 

Cuomo has re-election to worry about in 2014, so he might actually not be able to run in 2016 given the short pivot period.  He would jump in if Hillary bowed out. 

I predict Hillary will need to announce her presidential candidacy immediately after the 2014 midterm elections if she wants to stay relevent.  But she would need to make some moves before 2014 to stir up the chatter. 

[sentinel]

January 20, 2015

[Frodo]

February 14, 2015. 

[Blue3]

June 2015

[heatmaster]

August 19, 2015, but she will be actively organizing, fund-raising and running a stealth campaign before then.

[osideguy92]

September 7, 2015. With the base absolutely terrified of of the prospect of Mark Warner receiving the nomination, a Draft Hillary campaign will be launched following Elizabeth Warren's announcement that she does not intend to run. Hillary will enter the race reluctantly.

[Mister Mets]

What is the latest Date that Hillary can announce her 2016 presidential candidacy? 

I actually think she has to do it sooner rather than later, because O'Malley and Biden will soon start fundraising and getting commitments for their warchest. 

Cuomo has re-election to worry about in 2014, so he might actually not be able to run in 2016 given the short pivot period.  He would jump in if Hillary bowed out. 

I predict Hillary will need to announce her presidential candidacy immediately after the 2014 midterm elections if she wants to stay relevent.  But she would need to make some moves before 2014 to stir up the chatter. 

I doubt the pivot period will be a major factor for Cuomo.

It didn't stop Hillary in 2008, or W in 2000.

My guess is that under normal circumstances, the latest date for Hillary to announce would be May 2015. It would be unfair to potential candidates otherwise. She'd probably announce earlier than that.

[Mr. Morden]

If she keeps insisting that she's not running, what is the date on which people will start believing her?

[Blue3]

If she keeps insisting that she's not running, what is the date on which people will start believing her?

She keeps saying she's not running now, and that she needs a year to think about it.

[Mr. Morden]

If she keeps insisting that she's not running, what is the date on which people will start believing her?

She keeps saying she's not running now, and that she needs a year to think about it.

No, when did she say she'd need a year to think about it?  She says she's not running:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/07/hillary-clinton-female-president_n_1493289.html

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http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/clinton-definitely-leaving-politics-or-may-stay.html

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The closest she came to a hedge was this:

http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/hillary-2016-president-exercise/2012/11/12/id/463780

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Regardless, I'm not arguing that she can't change her mind in the future.  But as of right now, she says she's not running.  If she keeps saying that, at what point will people start believing her?

[Likely Voter]

I just hope that Hillary doesn't pull a Palin by dragging the whole 'will she wont she?' thing out. Remember when Palin did a Bus Tour in some primary states in late summer 2011? I suspect that if she for sure isn't running she will make it clear by the beginning of 2015, so that her loyalists will be free to jump onto other campaigns. And if she is running she will hint at it until around May when she launches an exploratory committee.

[Paul Kemp]

If she keeps insisting that she's not running, what is the date on which people will start believing her?

September 2016.

[Benj]

I just hope that Hillary doesn't pull a Palin by dragging the whole 'will she wont she?' thing out. Remember when Palin did a Bus Tour in some primary states in late summer 2011? I suspect that if she for sure isn't running she will make it clear by the beginning of 2015, so that her loyalists will be free to jump onto other campaigns. And if she is running she will hint at it until around May when she launches an exploratory committee.

Clinton isn't in this for the money the way Palin was. I think Clinton thinks that nothing she does, other than actually not register for the primaries and not campaign, will cause the chattering to stop. (And I think she's right.)

[Joe Biden 2020]

If she keeps insisting that she's not running, what is the date on which people will start believing her?

Iowa 2016.

As for the OQ, I think she would have to form the exploratory committee by February 1, 2015, but she would have to start stirring the waters and stirring the chatter even as early as Christmas 2013.  If she keeps insisting she's not running, and actually does intend to run, she would need to stop saying she's not running this next summer and at least move to a more neutral tone (kind of like what Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are doing right now).  With this age of endless campaigning, she doesn't have much time to wait.

[The Mikado]

I don't think she'd wait past April/May 2015 to decide.  Entries later than that point in the cycle, even of real bigshots, have far less time to organize their campaigns and get their ground team in place, especially beyond IA/NH, and I can guarantee that, after taking the late states for granted in 2008 she's not making that error again.

[Blue3]

I don't think she'd wait past April/May 2015 to decide.  Entries later than that point in the cycle, even of real bigshots, have far less time to organize their campaigns and get their ground team in place, especially beyond IA/NH, and I can guarantee that, after taking the late states for granted in 2008 she's not making that error again.

Romney and the others didn't announce until May 2011, right?

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think she'd wait past April/May 2015 to decide.  Entries later than that point in the cycle, even of real bigshots, have far less time to organize their campaigns and get their ground team in place, especially beyond IA/NH, and I can guarantee that, after taking the late states for granted in 2008 she's not making that error again.

Romney and the others didn't announce until May 2011, right?

Yeah, but they'd been prepping since '08 in Romney's case, since '10 in the others'.

On the OP: None, because she won't run. If she did then it'd probably be February/March.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think she'd wait past April/May 2015 to decide.  Entries later than that point in the cycle, even of real bigshots, have far less time to organize their campaigns and get their ground team in place, especially beyond IA/NH, and I can guarantee that, after taking the late states for granted in 2008 she's not making that error again.

Romney and the others didn't announce until May 2011, right?

Here is the timeline:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012_timeline#2011

If we're counting the formation of an exploratory committee as being equivalent to running (which it basically is), then it was (all dates are 2011):

January: Cain
February: nobody
March: Gingrich, Pawlenty, Roemer
April: Romney, Santorum, Johnson, Paul
May: Huntsman
June: Bachmann
July: McCotter
August: Perry