If PPP did a national 2016 GOP primary poll today, what would the result be?

[Mr. Morden]

AFAIK, we've only had one national 2016 GOP primary poll so far, and that's this one from way back in April:

Christie 21%
Bush 17%
Huckabee 17%
Santorum 12%
Rubio 10%
Ryan 7%
Rand Paul 4%
Jindal 3%

But that was in the immediate aftermath of Santorum's primary run, and well before Ryan was picked as Romney's running mate.  If they did the poll again today, what would it look like?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ryan would be way ahead right now, though he probably doesn't run in 2016 (he'll be more powerful in the House).

[You kip if you want to...]

For reference, the day after the last election, Rasmussen brought us:

Sarah Palin - 64%
Mike Huckabee - 12%
Mitt Romney - 11%
Bobby Jindal - 4%
Charlie Crist - 2%
Tim Pawlenty - 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan would be way ahead right now....

I don't know.  PPP also had this poll of Florida in early September, after the Ryan pick:

Rubio 24%
Bush 22%
Rice 12%
Christie 10%
Huckabee 10%
Ryan 10%
Rand Paul 4%
Palin 3%
Santorum 1%

While Bush and Rubio obviously have a home state advantage, Ryan is just in the middle of the pack with Christie and Huckabee.  If Ryan had a huge national lead, you'd think he'd have a somewhat stronger showing relative to the other non-Floridians in this Florida poll.

For reference, the day after the last election, Rasmussen brought us:

Sarah Palin - 64%
Mike Huckabee - 12%
Mitt Romney - 11%
Bobby Jindal - 4%
Charlie Crist - 2%
Tim Pawlenty - 1%

And yet around the same timeframe, NBC/WSJ gave us this completely contradictory result that had Romney in the lead:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87802.0

[Blue3]

Christie and Ryan have both hurt themselves in this cycle.

I'd hope the Santorum bounce from the primaries is over.

So it would probably be Rubio, maybe followed by Jebushosaurus and Huckabeedactyl.

[Bacon King]

BK's 2016 GOP Primary Poll Estimate

Chris Christie	34%
Paul Ryan	14%
Marco Rubio	11%
Rand Paul	10%
Rick Santorum	7%
Sarah Palin	6%
Newt Gingrich	4%
Jeb Bush	4%
Bobby Jindal	2%

If there was a poll like this held today, there'd be a ton of support for Christie due to his favorable coverage in the aftermath of the hurricane. Ryan would poll high due to being the VP, Gingrich and Santorum would poll higher than expected because they were competing candidates for the nomination. Besides that, your typical Tea Party darlings fill out the rest of the pack (with Rand getting a bit of a boost from Paulites, too). Palin still has her diehard fans, of course, and Jeb picks up a bit of support from establishment types.

[Maxwell]

BK's 2016 GOP Primary Poll Estimate

Chris Christie	34%
Paul Ryan	14%
Marco Rubio	11%
Rand Paul	10%
Rick Santorum	7%
Sarah Palin	6%
Newt Gingrich	4%
Jeb Bush	4%
Bobby Jindal	2%

If there was a poll like this held today, there'd be a ton of support for Christie due to his favorable coverage in the aftermath of the hurricane. Ryan would poll high due to being the VP, Gingrich and Santorum would poll higher than expected because they were competing candidates for the nomination. Besides that, your typical Tea Party darlings fill out the rest of the pack (with Rand getting a bit of a boost from Paulites, too). Palin still has her diehard fans, of course, and Jeb picks up a bit of support from establishment types.

I don't think Christie would be that high, as talk radio has already turned on him.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know, but I do know it would not bear any resemblance to anything happening during the actual primary season, so I am bewildered why anybody would care.

[reagan84]

Ryan or Rubio could be viable nominees.  I like Jindal a lot but never have been a fan of Christie.  I highly doubt that Huckabee, or Santorum will run again.  I can't see another Bush either.

[Stark]

^I would give Rand a couple points higher, but that is extremely accurate.

I disagree Rand dosen't automatically get Ron Paul's base. Some Ron Paul supporters are down on his son.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP's new state polls of IA, NH, and FL suggest to me that Christie is probably slightly ahead nationally.  Maybe Rubio in 2nd.  I'm surprised that Ryan isn't doing better in those IA/NH polls.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP has apparently started doing a national poll tonight.  Not sure if they'll be doing primary matchups though.  They might just ask about other national issues, and if we're lucky maybe throw in a few 2016 general election matchups.