Obama may have not won because of minority voting blocks:

[hopper]

I thought after Obama won and looking at the exit polls that he had won because of minority voting blocks. After looking at the results Obama won real late Baby Boomers, Gen Xers and early Generation Yers(age 30-49 voting block) by a 52-45% margin nearly matching his 51-48% win over Romney. The age 30-49 voting block is more whiter and less ethnically diverse than the age 18-29 demographic. So did the age 30-49 demographic win the election for Obama or did the minority voting blocks win it for him?

[memphis]

Not sure what you're suggesting. Remove blacks and hispanics from the electorate and Obama loses unambiguously.

[hopper]

Not sure what you're suggesting. Remove blacks and hispanics from the electorate and Obama loses unambiguously.

No what I am saying is he won minorities 80-20% but the age 30-49 demographic 52-45% which was close to his 51-48% win over Romney.

[opebo]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

[Torie]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

Please lay off the personal attacks! 

[LastVoter]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

Maybe white become more resentful as they grow older?

[justfollowingtheelections]

It's a combination of all of the above.  Winning the minority vote certainly helped, but winning 40% of the white vote was also very important.  Winning the youth vote so convincingly as well as woman also contributed to his success. 
If you're asking what was his difference from, say, Kerry who was the last Democrat to run for president, it was his ability to GOTV among groups that don't always show up (minorities and young people).  The fact that the GOP is perceived as an extreme party by many (which wasn't the case in 2004 or even in 2008) also helped.

[opebo]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

Maybe white become more resentful as they grow older?

Probably.. so the current middle aged may become more Republican as they enter their decrepitude.  I guess one resents the viral darks even more when one is totally non-functional than one does when merely... undersized.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No, Obama demonstrably won because of nonwhite voters.

[opebo]

No, Obama demonstrably won because of nonwhite voters.

But also because of the 40% of white voters who supported him, right?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

No, Obama demonstrably won because of nonwhite voters.

But also because of the 40% of white voters who supported him, right?

Every part was important.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No, Obama demonstrably won because of nonwhite voters.

But also because of the 40% of white voters who supported him, right?

Of course Obama wouldn't have won without his white supporters. However, my point was that Romney would have clearly won without Obama's dominating of the nonwhite vote.

[CountryRoads]

Not sure what you're suggesting. Remove blacks and hispanics from the electorate and Obama loses unambiguously.

No what I am saying is he won minorities 80-20% but the age 30-49 demographic 52-45% which was close to his 51-48% win over Romney.

I guess Minorities can't get older? I think you forget that minority voters are included in age groups...

[patrick1]

Not sure what you're suggesting. Remove blacks and hispanics from the electorate and Obama loses unambiguously.

No what I am saying is he won minorities 80-20% but the age 30-49 demographic 52-45% which was close to his 51-48% win over Romney.

I guess Minorities can't get older? I think you forget that minority voters are included in age groups...

^Too much diabeetus.

[mileslunn]

I think the non-white vote was what did as Obama got slightly lower support amongst whites than Kerry or Gore and about the same as Dukakis.  True that a lot of that was due to his lower support amongst Southern Whites but if you did it on a state by state basis Romney still would have won handidly if you only took the white vote.  Its true that had Obama only gotten say 35% of the white vote he would have lost and it is also true LBJ is the only Democrat leader since WWII to win the white vote, but nonetheless had America had the same demographic as it did 20 years ago, Obama would have lost and fairly badly too.

[hopper]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

Please lay off the personal attacks! 

Well its not a personal attack actually that if the GOP can't get new voters the brand dies like the Whig Party.

[hopper]

I think the non-white vote was what did as Obama got slightly lower support amongst whites than Kerry or Gore and about the same as Dukakis.  True that a lot of that was due to his lower support amongst Southern Whites but if you did it on a state by state basis Romney still would have won handidly if you only took the white vote.  Its true that had Obama only gotten say 35% of the white vote he would have lost and it is also true LBJ is the only Democrat leader since WWII to win the white vote, but nonetheless had America had the same demographic as it did 20 years ago, Obama would have lost and fairly badly too.

Carter won the white vote by 4% in 1976 and Clinton also won the white vote in 1992 by 2 or 3%.

[hopper]

Not sure what you're suggesting. Remove blacks and hispanics from the electorate and Obama loses unambiguously.

No what I am saying is he won minorities 80-20% but the age 30-49 demographic 52-45% which was close to his 51-48% win over Romney.

I guess Minorities can't get older? I think you forget that minority voters are included in age groups...

I know Minorities get older and are included in the age 30-49 voting block. I was just making a topic that the 52-45% win of the age 30-49 voting block was close to his margin of victory of Romney.

[hopper]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

Its to early to tell if the GOP has a generational problem with Generation X. With most of Generation Y they do though. The GOP has gotten blown out with the age 18-29 voting block for 2 straight elections now 67-32% in 2008 and 60-37% this year. In 2004 I think Bush W. split the youth vote(age 18-29 voting block) with John Kerry.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I think the best way to answer this question is by looking at the states Obama won but Kerry couldn't win.  Those states were Florida (29), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Colorado (7), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5).  I'm not counting Indiana or North Carolina because he won in 2012 without them.
Without any of these states he would have 246 electoral votes and would only need 24, which means that Florida alone could have given him the victory or a combination of Ohio and any of the other states except for New Mexico, which is too small population-wise.

So why did Obama win Florida (which would have been enough if we assume that he wasn't in danger to lose any of the Kerry states)?
- The answer to this is clearly the minority vote.

What if he had lost Florida but won Ohio and Virginia?
- Ohio was one of the states that suffered the most from the recent economic crisis and Obama delivered jobs.
- The black vote helped him in both states.
- A change in Virginia's culture since 2004 has also played a role but I think we might be overestimating that effect since Virginia still has a GOP governor and more Rs in the House than Ds.  Nonetheless, it did play a role.  I think domestic migration is more responsible for this than age.

He could also have won with a combination of 3 states as long as one of the 3 was Florida, Ohio or Virginia.

So with all that in mind, I would say the deciding factor was probably his appeal to minorities, especially African-Americans in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia.  Democrats always won the black vote of course, but Obama received a larger number of votes and I think that's his greatest contribution to US politics.  Watching the DNC one could tell that having a black president has reduced the "me vs you" attitude that has always characterized the relationship between blacks and whites in this country.  It's still there unfortunately, but progress has been made.

[Beezer]

No, Obama demonstrably won because of nonwhite voters.

True, if non-white voters hadn't taken part in the election, Romney would have run away with it. It seems though that the role played by Hispanics for example wasn't all that huge. According to the NY Times (google Assessing How Pivotal the Hispanic Vote Was to Obama’s Victory, can't post links yet) Obama could have won w/o much of the Hispanic vote. It was only crucial in places like NV, FL, NM and CO. But even w/o those states he'd have made it past 270.

[Jackson]

Carter won the white vote by 4% in 1976 and Clinton also won the white vote in 1992 by 2 or 3%.

Actually that is incorrect. Carter lost the white vote, but by a much smaller margin than Obama.

1976 Exit Polls

                Carter       Ford

White       48            52      (88% of Electorate)

Black        83            17      (9% of Electorate)

Hispanic   82            18      (1% of Electorate)

[Torie]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

Maybe white become more resentful as they grow older?

Probably.. so the current middle aged may become more Republican as they enter their decrepitude.  I guess one resents the viral [virile] darks even more when one is totally non-functional than one does when merely... undersized.

Fixed.  Modern science has a way to help "lights" narrow  the gap with "darks" in that department I might add.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So the point is the GOP has a generational as well as a racial voting problem?  All slices of the electorate which support them are relatively declining or even literally dying off, while the cohorts replacing them support the GOP markedly less.

Maybe white become more resentful as they grow older?

Probably.. so the current middle aged may become more Republican as they enter their decrepitude.  I guess one resents the viral [virile] darks even more when one is totally non-functional than one does when merely... undersized.

Fixed.  Modern science has a way to help "lights" narrow  the gap with "darks" in that department I might add.

This is modern?

[Torie]

How long have you been on it Grumps?  Anyway, until I discover it, it doesn't exist. Just a little early morning philosophy "thinkum" for you to ponder.