Schweitzer would, I think, narrowly win in a neutral political environment, 272-266. Props for actually placing two candidates who will run with reasonable Veeps against each other, though.
Paul Ryan just showed why successful candidates for the Presidency are either current or former Senators or State governors. If Ryan could not help Romney win Wisconsin, then nothing says that he would win it as a Presidential nominee. He does not have a statewide campaign apparatus in place. If he can't win Wisconsin he is also not going to win Iowa.
Because his House seat will be up for grabs in 2016 he might not want to run for VP unless it is a sure thing or he decides not to run for the Senate or House (if Ron Johnson isn't an abject failure) ... and the political environment of 2016 will be much unlike that of 2010 in which he won a three-way race with less than a majority.
