When will the bleeding stop in the Rust Belt?

[Gass3268]

Since 1980 Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania (for them it has been since 1930!) and New York have lost seats after every census. All 5 starts are expected to lose more seats in 2020. When will this stop? If I had to guess New York will be the first to stop because New York City is growing while Michigan would be the last because people keep leaving.   

[muon2]

The national growth rate is just under 1%/year. For the rust belt to stop losing seats, they need to start growing at that rate or more.

[Mr. Morden]

I wish I could find the article on Slate from years and years ago that predicted that if climate change got really bad, the most livable part of the USA might end up being the Great Lakes region.  That might do it.

[TJ in Oregon]

With the Great Lakes Compact, a large drought could work too.

[Skill and Chance]

My guess is it won't.  Some of that factory production is simply not coming back because we no longer have a comparative advantage in those industries.  There is also the reality of needing fewer people per unit of land to farm, and that agriculture keeps getting more efficient year after year.  Add to that the pretty hostile climate and probably terminal decline of places like Detroit and it's very difficult to convince people to come back.  Chicago has enough appeal to young people that it could be a regional bright spot, provided it doesn't go bankrupt first.

[Frodo]

My guess is it won't.  Some of that factory production is simply not coming back because we no longer have a comparative advantage in those industries.  There is also the reality of needing fewer people per unit of land to farm, and that agriculture keeps getting more efficient year after year.  Add to that the pretty hostile climate and probably terminal decline of places like Detroit and it's very difficult to convince people to come back.  Chicago has enough appeal to young people that it could be a regional bright spot, provided it doesn't go bankrupt first.

Plus, due to its lower labor costs and anti-union 'Right to Work' laws, it is likely that the South will continue to be the main draw for any manufacturer looking to relocate to the United States -perhaps eventually it will be enough to become the new industrial, manufacturing powerhouse of the nation.  

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish I could find the article on Slate from years and years ago that predicted that if climate change got really bad, the most livable part of the USA might end up being the Great Lakes region.  That might do it.

^^^ This. Most high growth states are unsustainable. There's hardly any water in the sunbelt, and it's going to be come more and more unbearable to live there. 

[LastVoter]

My guess is it won't.  Some of that factory production is simply not coming back because we no longer have a comparative advantage in those industries.  There is also the reality of needing fewer people per unit of land to farm, and that agriculture keeps getting more efficient year after year.  Add to that the pretty hostile climate and probably terminal decline of places like Detroit and it's very difficult to convince people to come back.  Chicago has enough appeal to young people that it could be a regional bright spot, provided it doesn't go bankrupt first.

I think that South/Sunbelt has a more hostile climate than  Great Lakes.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think the sudden flood of cheap natural gas in these areas will stem the flow.  Manufacturers that are looking to China for cheap labor are actually changing plans and looking at U.S. factories because of the access we have to cheap, plentiful natural gas, which is required in some fields.

Since natural gas is hard to ship long distances, the savings in natural gas costs (it's half the price in the U.S. compared to China) is worth the extra labor costs.

The same will be true for oil to a lesser extent.

I think things are already turning around if you look closely.  The regions around Cleveland and Detroit will likely see a stable population in the coming decades.  As time goes on and behaviors change, you'll see a redevelopment of currently empty inner-city land with a corresponding decline in the outer peripheries.

Growth patterns have already completely changed. 

Compare Arizona and Minnesota:

Arizona has almost exactly a million more people than Minnesota.  The population of Arizona is also much younger... so its workforce is relatively smaller.

The number of jobs in Minnesota outpaced Arizona until January 2006.  AZ continued to pull ahead until AZ had 150,000 more jobs than Minnesota in early 2008.

During the recession Minnesota lost 80,000 jobs in total, while AZ lost just under 200,000.

Minnesota began adding jobs again in September 2009 and has since added 100,000 jobs, putting us ahead of the previous peak.  Despite basically coming out of a hole, the rate of job growth in MN has been faster since 2009 than it has been since the mid 1990s.

Arizona on the other hand continued to purge jobs until August of 2011 and has remained stagnant since.  Despite having over a million more people in the state of Arizona, there are actually 35,000 fewer people working than in Minnesota.

Minnesota is the exception with only 5.9% unemployment.  But the labor market is doing quite well in certain parts of the country.

Job growth is most robust in the plains (except South Dakota, but plus Wyoming), Texas, and the eastern seaboard states from North Carolina to NYC.  Minnesota is an exception outside of these areas, likely due to our younger workforce for a mostly non-hispanic white state, a strongly diversified economy, and already high workforce participation.  New England and the Great Lakes are holding their own given the current demographics (more people retiring than entering the workforce), as is most of the south.

Alaska is another good performer.  Oregon is holding its own while WA and especially CA seem to be losing out...but that's nothing compared to NM, AZ, and NV.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Sunbelt growth is built on literally nothing and will at some point collapse. Then some people will think about moving from Florida or Arizona to Illinois or Pennsylvania.