Obama will get 303 electoral votes

[Ljube]

That is also my final prediction. 

Yeah, mine too.

Maybe if the polls show a sudden surge in FL and NC I will change that too.

But otherwise, FL and NC are slightly voting Romney this year.

So, now everybody agrees with what I have been saying since February that Obama's ceiling is 303. Any impartial observer would have come to the same conclusion months ago.

[Tender Branson]

No, his ceiling is 347.

FL and NC are still within the MoE and could go either way. But my gut says Romney wins those.

[BlueSwan]

No, his ceiling is 347.

FL and NC are still within the MoE and could go either way. But my gut says Romney wins those.

Well, according to 538 his ceiling is more like 348 (winning NE-2).

I would never ever bet money on this election, but if I absolutely HAD to, I would bet on Obama winning 281 electoral votes, losing NE-2, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado, while JUST hangin' on to Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin (within 2 points) and winning the rest more handidly.

Two weeks ago I would have given Ohio and Iowa to Romney and hence the election.

[Tender Branson]

No, his ceiling is 347.

FL and NC are still within the MoE and could go either way. But my gut says Romney wins those.

Well, according to 538 his ceiling is more like 348 (winning NE-2).

I would never ever bet money on this election, but if I absolutely HAD to, I would bet on Obama winning 281 electoral votes, losing NE-2, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado, while JUST hangin' on to Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin (within 2 points) and winning the rest more handidly.

Two weeks ago I would have given Ohio and Iowa to Romney and hence the election.

NE-02 is a big longshot for Obama. The last poll there from a week ago was 50-45 Romney:

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121028/NEWS/710289929/1707#world-herald-poll-mitt-romney-leads-in-2nd-district

[Antonio the Sixth]

No, his ceiling is 347.

FL and NC are still within the MoE and could go either way. But my gut says Romney wins those.

Well, according to 538 his ceiling is more like 348 (winning NE-2).

I would never ever bet money on this election, but if I absolutely HAD to, I would bet on Obama winning 281 electoral votes, losing NE-2, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado, while JUST hangin' on to Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin (within 2 points) and winning the rest more handidly.

Two weeks ago I would have given Ohio and Iowa to Romney and hence the election.

NE-02 is a big longshot for Obama. The last poll there from a week ago was 50-45 Romney:

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121028/NEWS/710289929/1707#world-herald-poll-mitt-romney-leads-in-2nd-district

For some reason, Obama's odds to win it according to 538 bumped from 5% to 13.5% in the past few days. No idea what prompted that swing.

[gotapresent]

I should have said "at least 303 electoral votes".