counties that flipped to Obama

[minionofmidas]

We had a thread with predictions... I'm not going to dig it up but the vibe of it was very wrong. Let's not even speak of my own post in it.

Staten Island (special circumstances here), Franklin KY (not on the forum, I think, but I had that down as a potential), Chaffee CO which presumably makes sense as becoming more touristy, but otherwise .... ding ding ding ding ....

Nash NC, Early GA, Conecuh AL, Warren MS. Counties of the 47% Blacks, 53% Black Belt Whites variety (okay, so Nash's actually ~60% White) that Obama narrowly missed last time. Who'd have predicted that? Wasn't Black turnout going to not reach 2008 levels or something?

[Averroës Nix]

If I remember correctly, while Warren is the only McCain county in the area that flipped to Obama, every county in northern and central New York swung toward the Democrats. I haven't yet thought of a satisfying explanation. Other than south central Ohio and a scattering of counties in New England, most counties that swung toward Obama host large or burgeoning minority populations. Upstate NY, outside of the larger cities and a few small Indian reservations, is pasty white.

(Herkimer appears to have swung strongly against him on most maps, but if you check the official returns on the county website you can see that they are wrong. I wonder how many other counties on our national maps are in error?)

[RI]

At last count, I believe there were 9 counties (not including Alaska) that flipped to Obama. The ones Lewis didn't mention were Darlington, SC and Barbour, AL.

[Brittain33]

Historically, upstate NY has had a strong pro-incumbent bias for Presidents. I don't know why that should be but there you have it. It may also be that the economy is perennially weak there so no one has high expectations that have been disappointed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I called Conecuh! I just noted the demographic trend and change in black % between 2000 and the 2011 estimate, and I had it.

Also called Chaffee, based on 2010 results.