OH: Columbus Dispatch: Obama +2

[DemPGH]

2-5 point lead virtually everywhere over a long period of time and many, many polls. If the turnout turns out, and Nina Turner sounded about as optimistic as I have heard her sound last night, this one goes O. And that's the ballgame.

[anvi]

I posted this earlier but for some reason it didn't show up here so I'm trying again.

The most suspect thing about this poll is the Dem oversample.  But other stuff looks more credible to me--including the final assessment that the state is still a toss-up within a certain margin.  The "40% plus" early voters is just the way they wrote it up in the story; the actual number of early votes cast as reported corresponded to the total.  The lead they report Obama has in the "northeastern counties" is 10%, which, if they are counting all the counties along Jay Cost's famous "reverse c-shape" along the north and eastern borders had Obama winning by an average of 11.3% last time, so it's only down a little from '08 if that's the case.  The part that should have Obama concerned is the "5%" lead reported from central counties; if Obama is to win Ohio, election day turnout definitely has to push that margin up.  Romney is definitely polling well in other areas and looks to have good election day turnout.  All the same, Romney has not been reported to lead in a single Ohio poll for a long time, including Scotty's, so I think the aggregate still shows Obama ahead by a narrow margin.  But turnout, as always, will be the real story, and none of us knows that yet.