There's one important Utah race where the Democrat is winning...

[Zioneer]

(I don't know how to do the polling format, so just bear with me here)

The Salt Lake County Mayoral election poll done by Dan Jones (a local pollster) has Democrat Ben McAdams and Republican Mark Crockett as 44-41, with 12 percent undecided. Traditionally, Salt Lake County has been more Democratic than the rest of the state, so I wouldn't give all of the undecideds to Crockett. If McAdams can retain Salt Lake County for the Dems, then they've still got a small base to rebuild from.

[Niemeyerite]

It'd be nice if democrats could keep this. I think democrats stand a chance in the Gubernatorial election of 2014 if Matherson runs, too.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It'd be nice if democrats could keep this. I think democrats stand a chance in the Gubernatorial election of 2014 if Matherson runs, too.

However, the Governor's seat is up for a vote this Tuesday.  Republican Governor Gary Herbert is favored to win.  Matheson would have to wait until 2016.

[Zioneer]

It'd be nice if democrats could keep this. I think democrats stand a chance in the Gubernatorial election of 2014 if Matherson runs, too.

The next gubernatorial election (after this year) is 2016, but I agree, Matheson is literally the only chance at this point of a Democratic governor. If he would've ran this year for governor, he might have even had a chance at winning, since he's known across the state.

[bgwah]

How is that a statewide race?

[Zioneer]

How is that a statewide race?

Salt Lake County is the most populous county in Utah (holds about 45% of the entire population), and provides a massive base for anybody who wins it. It holds quite a few of the biggest cities in Utah. It even holds the capital. It's also the only mayoral race that matters in Utah, which is why I put it here.

[tmthforu94]

It'd be nice if democrats could keep this. I think democrats stand a chance in the Gubernatorial election of 2014 if Matherson runs, too.

The next gubernatorial election (after this year) is 2016, but I agree, Matheson is literally the only chance at this point of a Democratic governor. If he would've ran this year for governor, he might have even had a chance at winning, since he's known across the state.

Not in a Presidential year, which is what they all are. And I don't think he could win a Senate seat, for the same reasons he's about ready to lose his Congressional seat.

I still think Crockett will pull it out - the jury is still out on my opinion of him.

[tmthforu94]

Also, it's worth noting that Mason-Dixon has Crockett up by 10, 48-38.

[Zioneer]

Also, it's worth noting that Mason-Dixon has Crockett up by 10, 48-38.

If I remember correctly, wasn't Dan Jones more reliable in 2010? I still hold out hope of a McAdams win, because with Matheson's impending defeat, I have to hope in something. The prospect of having Utah become a one party state outside of Salt Lake City (more than it already is) is terrifying and disgraceful.

As for Matheson's gubernatorial chances, I think his Congressional votes would be less of a factor, and he's already proved that he's able to get re-elected to Congress in Presidential years, so why not elected to governor?

EDIT: Also, tmthforu94, it's pretty hilarious how we've de facto become amiable nemesises, since we're the only ones who care about Utah politics, but are on the opposite sides of the political spectrum.

[tmthforu94]

Well, I would say both polling firms are pretty good - the Dan Jones poll has McAdams barely ahead, within the MoE. On the flip side, the Mason-Dixon poll has Crockett up by double-digits. Put them together, and even acknowledging that Dan Jones has historically been better, I think I'd put my money on Crockett. I expect Mormon turnout to be especially high this year with Romney on the top of the ticket - 2012 just isn't a great year for a Democrat in Utah because of that.

I understand your point on Matheson being able to win in previous Presidential years, but I think it also has to be factored in that Matheson's district was just about as favorable as you could get for a Democrat in Utah, so winning statewide would be much more problematic with a more Republican-friendly electorate. Additionally, let's say Matheson runs in 2016 - at that point he will have been out of the spotlight for a while, which will make it even more difficult.

[Zioneer]

Well, I would say both polling firms are pretty good - the Dan Jones poll has McAdams barely ahead, within the MoE. On the flip side, the Mason-Dixon poll has Crockett up by double-digits. Put them together, and even acknowledging that Dan Jones has historically been better, I think I'd put my money on Crockett. I expect Mormon turnout to be especially high this year with Romney on the top of the ticket - 2012 just isn't a great year for a Democrat in Utah because of that.

I understand your point on Matheson being able to win in previous Presidential years, but I think it also has to be factored in that Matheson's district was just about as favorable as you could get for a Democrat in Utah, so winning statewide would be much more problematic with a more Republican-friendly electorate. Additionally, let's say Matheson runs in 2016 - at that point he will have been out of the spotlight for a while, which will make it even more difficult.

Fair enough, though I would point out that Mason-Dixon has been accused of having a Republican bias in the past. Anyway, this is just my desperate attempt to salvage anything from the Romneygeddon. Why can't they let us (metaphorically speaking, as I think every election should have at least two contestants) have just one elected Democrat in a fairly high position? If McAdams loses, the mayor of Salt Lake City will be the highest elected Democrat in the state. It's unfair, because Utah is becoming more diverse, more friendly to minority politics.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Please change the thread title, mayor of SLC is most definitely not a statewide position.

[Zioneer]

Please change the thread title, mayor of SLC is most definitely not a statewide position.

I would argue that it's almost effectively a statewide position with how much of Utah it affects, but alright, I have done so.

Anyway, Mason-Dixon/the Salt Lake Tribune revised their 10-point Crockett lead poll; it's now almost dead even, with Crockett leading by one point and 13% of voters still undecided. So care to revise your opinion of the race, Tmthforu94?