Philly Inquirer: Obama+6 in Pennsylvania, +10 in New Jersey

[Tender Branson]

PA: 49-43 Obama

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20121026_Poll__Obama_still_ahead__but_Romney_up.html

NJ: 51-41 Obama

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20121026_Poll__Obama_leads_Romney_by_10_points_in_N_J.html

[Ljube]

Mittmentum!

[J. J.]

Well, there has been erosion in PA, according to this poll, but not enough to flip PA. 

[Tender Branson]

Well, there has been erosion in PA, according to this poll, but not enough to flip PA.  

Well, the internals of these 2 polls are quite favorable to Obama.

In PA, Obama leads by 21 among Indies and by 6 in NJ.

The crossover-support is pretty high though and probably won't be correct. Obama is only at 78% among PA Democrats and Romney only at 82% with Republicans.

There's a good chance Obama wins by 10 again with these numbers and by 15 in NJ.

[J. J.]

Excluding one, every poll has put Obama into a 4-7 point range.  I'd prefer F & M, but I think that is the range, barring an Obama collapse.

The polls were dead on in PA last time, much to my surprise. 

[DemPGH]

Don't see Mitt climbing much above 45 here - maybe 46 if there's a little slippage in the suburbs. But I think it's more of just a lack of big energy. The Tea Party folks will be out en masse, but they won't be enough. They actually would be out en masse for the GOP anyway, they just have a name now.

[Franzl]

Excluding one, every poll has put Obama into a 4-7 point range.  I'd prefer F & M, but I think that is the range, barring an Obama collapse.

The polls were dead on in PA last time, much to my surprise. 

Not quite, Obama did outperform the polling in 2008:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

[Holmes]

Wow, Zogby got it pretty spot on. Haha. But yes, I do remember some polls started getting "close" around this time in Pennsylvania because McCain started /seriously/ contesting it and it fit the narrative.

[J. J.]

Excluding one, every poll has put Obama into a 4-7 point range.  I'd prefer F & M, but I think that is the range, barring an Obama collapse.

The polls were dead on in PA last time, much to my surprise. 

Not quite, Obama did outperform the polling in 2008:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

Wow, Zogby got it pretty spot on. Haha. But yes, I do remember some polls started getting "close" around this time in Pennsylvania because McCain started /seriously/ contesting it and it fit the narrative.

Obama was heavily hitting the state, and I couldn't figure out why. 

But so did McCain, slightly.  

Frankly, there are only two things that could sh**tf PA.

1.  A general Obama collapse.  

2.  Some problem with Hurricane Sandy.  The northwest quadrant can hit Phila and the Lehigh Valley and might suppress turnout ultimately.  And no, I'm not rooting for that, because it's aimed right at me.  

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Philadelphia Inquirer on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: New Jersey President by Philadelphia Inquirer on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 51%, R: 41%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[dirks]

Like the 04 version of bush, I can see Romney creep into single digits in Nj. He's the type of experienced, nonthreatening, strong on the economy coservative that is welcomed here. He will do well in the middle to upper middle class burbs and ultimately lose by 7 pts or so.

[Ty440]

Awesome news! The firewall is holding strong.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Proud to have contributed two votes to Obama in Lancaster, PA.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Like the 04 version of bush, I can see Romney creep into single digits in Nj. He's the type of experienced, nonthreatening, strong on the economy coservative that is welcomed here. He will do well in the middle to upper middle class burbs and ultimately lose by 7 pts or so.

Did you just say that the 04 version of Bush was an experienced, no threatening, strong on the economy conservative?

[dirks]

Like the 04 version of bush, I can see Romney creep into single digits in Nj. He's the type of experienced, nonthreatening, strong on the economy coservative that is welcomed here. He will do well in the middle to upper middle class burbs and ultimately lose by 7 pts or so.

Did you just say that the 04 version of Bush was an experienced, no threatening, strong on the economy conservative?

Thats how he was portrayed

[Landslide Lyndon]

Like the 04 version of bush, I can see Romney creep into single digits in Nj. He's the type of experienced, nonthreatening, strong on the economy coservative that is welcomed here. He will do well in the middle to upper middle class burbs and ultimately lose by 7 pts or so.

Did you just say that the 04 version of Bush was an experienced, no threatening, strong on the economy conservative?

Thats how he was portrayed

By whom, Laura and the twins?

[Cliffy]

Rumor is Romney is reserving air time in Philly.

Preibus said they've spent more this year on the ground game in PA than they did in 04 and 08.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Rumor is Romney is reserving air time in Philly.

Preibus said they've spent more this year on the ground game in PA than they did in 04 and 08.

The last thing you need to do is listen to Reince Priebus' spin.

[Lief 🗽]

Remove all the vowels from his name, and what do you get? RNC PR BS.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Making fun of people's names is bad, Lief. Please don't.

[Cliffy]

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