Silent Hunter's Election Night Log

[Silent Hunter]

All times are GMT. This was all done on the night, but I've slightly edited it to tidy it up.

2312: The first polls close in half an hour. A record turnout is expected and according to pollster Frank Luntz, they're voting on the economy- which is not good news for Bush. I tentatively called this for Bush this morning but now it could got either way. It's going to come down to actual results.

0000: The first pols have closed mainly in the highly predictable states. Indiana, Kentucky and Georgia for Bush, Vermony Kerry. No surprise there.
Current EVs:
Bush 34
Kerry 3

0030: Virginia, which went for Bush last time still hasn't been called. That's very interesting. We've got some more calls to come shortly.
WV's been called for Bush. Ohio is too close to call. If it's too close to call, this will be close. There are huge queues there and voting may not finish for 2 to 3 hours after official poll closing.

0058: 13 more states are about to close including FL and PA (if they're like OH we won't get calls for ages).

0104: 3 southern states (OK, AL, TN) have been called for Bush. Again, no surprise. Delaware, Connecticut, DC, for Kerry. No surprise. A bunch of Dem states have been called for Kerry.
Currently
Bush: 66
Kerry: 63
All four Maine votes went for Kerry. NJ's Kerry putting [him] into a 78-66 lead. It's still a highly predictable state.
Florida's too close to call.

0125: A judge in Ohio has allowed paper ballots to be used in two key counties to clearup the queues at the polling station. North Carolina (Edward's home state) has gone for Bush.

0134: VA's been called for Bush. The delay meant nothing at all.
(Got access to a computer at this time)
0148: Found out Arkansas' Senate election has been called for the incumbent Democrat.
Of early counting, Bush is up in FL (31% reporting). Kerry is up in OH, PA, NH but there's less than 5% of prec[incts.]

0200: Maine may split its college votes 3 for Kerry 1 for Bush according to ABC. If so, it's 103-77
A batch of the Mid West states have been called for Bush. Kerry gets New York and Rhode Island. Total so far:
Bush 155 54%
Kerry 112 45%
CNN Total (12% reporting

0210: There's word on the BBC that the Republicans want the counting of 1/2m FL absentee ballots delayed until Thursday.

0230 Current Score
Bush 172 (?) 53%
Kerry 112 46%
CNN 16% reporting

0235: FOX claimed 20 minutes ago that Michigan is too close to call. In the House it's 42 Republicans, 22 Democrats, 1 Independent.

0250: AP and ABC have called Nebraska for Bush but say he may only get 4 out of 5 of the ECVs (it can split them like Maine). We have two possible Electoral surprises here.

0304: CNN is saying that Bush will take all 5 of Nebraska's vote. Counting in OH and FL puts Bush ahead, but many polls are still open.
Current tally
Bush 185
Kerry 112
Bush is up 52-47% with 28% of precincts reporting national[ly].
Counting in PA puts Kerry ahead by a significant margin. At the moment it doesn't look brilliant for him, but it's too early to say for sure.
Bush up in Coloradio and apparently Michigan. Missouri's been called for Bush.

0310: With 18% counted Kerry is up in New Hampshire.

0314: 78% reporting, Bush up by 4.2% in Florida- that's 260,000 or so votes. Why hasn't Arkansas been called yet?
Just as I write this, CNN calls Arkansas for Bush. Clinton didn't swing it then.

0317: The BBC is updating results- from states that have already been called!

0322: Bush is up by 11% with 8% of precincts reporting in Michigna. Forget Maine, if Bush wins this is it will be the election night surprise.

0325: And early counting has Bush ahead in Iowa and Wisconsin. With these, his base, FL + OH and one from Maine that'd be 287 Electoral College Votes.

0327: Bush is still 100,000 votes ahead in Ohio after 30% counting. Voting is still continuing and this could change.

0329: Nevada is in the 'too close to call' category.

0330: The Colorado EV initative has failed, AFP reports.

0335: Arkansas will ban same sex marriage as will Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan (!), Mississipi, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and Utah.

0338: A quick glance at CNN's exit poll says Bush has cleared 40% among Latinos and has 10% among African Americans. Not good for Kerry.

0340: Bush is projected to have a 4 point led in Florida.

0342: New Hampshire- too close to call.

0347: Bush is up 7% in New Mexico with 26% reporting. This was a Gore state in 2000.

0349: Kerry leads in MN, IA, Bush in MI, WI. Counting still only a quarter done.

0350: And Kerry will now almost certainly romp home in Pennsylvania. Unfortunately he needs Ohio and Florida too.

0353: 89% reporting in FL, Bush up 5. Unless something major happens in the last 11%, this is going of Bush.

0356: 4 minutes until the last mainland polls close. I'll note their calls. Then get some sleep.

0400: Kerry's won Pennsylvania. There are reports that 191,000 absentee ballots in NM will delay that result until Wednesday night.

0402: CA's been called for Kerry, Arizona for Bush. No surprise there.
Current confirmed EVs
Bush 211
Kerry 188

0409: With 52% national reporting Bush is up 51-48%. A Bush popular vote victory is looking very likely indeed.

0411: Kerry's up in Oregon with 19% reported. He's leading in Michigan now.

0415: Bush still in lead in Ohio (not certain he'll win) and Florida. Get these two- it's a tie.

0417: There's no HI results or calls. Grrr. Ten more minutes then I'm going to bed.

0430: HI still not called.  I'm off to get some sleep. Bush is going to win FL and has a good chance of on Ohio too. That with CO, the base and ME-2 is enough to win. I'll find out if he does in a few hours time.

(Went to sleep and then did my daily stuff)

1619- Bush has won Florida and has almost certainly won Ohio. He's won Nevada too. IA and WI haven't been called. Edwards said in a speech early this morning that they'd wait until all the votes [in OH] (i.e. the provisional ballots) had been counted (Bush is up 140,000 with maybe 175-250,000 uncounted votes).
Now the AP is reporting that Kerry has called to concede.

[minionofmidas]

It's going to come down to actual results.

Doesn't that always happen?
Nice otherwise, reminds me of what I thought during the election. Though I went to bed later.

[Ebowed]

Thanks for posting this.  It was a neat read.

[Erc]

Weird about the ME-CD2 uncertainty...

That was called pretty quickly over here iirc.