The upset state

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In other words, let's say that we have a somewhat clear idea of how each of the 9 "battlegrounds" will vote. However, as there usually is, one ends up being a "wild card".

I'd go with one of the Western states or New Hampshire; they all seem to be underpolled and have been pretty erratic over the past few years (both presidential elections and midterms).

[Skill and Chance]

I would go with NV or IA.  In every statewide election in 2008 and 2010, the Democrat underpolled in NV by at least 5%.  For IA, Obama's lead was overestimated pretty dramatically in 2008 (+15 vs. +9 actual), so I could see that state ending up really tight when everyone thinks it's gone for Romney.

NH is polling close as it is, and I don't see it ever being anything other than close presidentially unless Ayotte or Lynch is on a ticket. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Nevada is erratic and difficult to poll, but I doubt it'll be the upset state, just the one that is the greatest upset of the ones given as an option.  My dark horse favorites for safe states that really aren't are Oregon and Tennessee.

[Politico]

NH or NV. They're more fiscally conservative than the rest of the bunch (e.g., no state income tax).

I second the opinion that OR is possibly not as safe as some folks think. If Romney wins the debates, takes a four or five point lead nationally, polling of OR will be priority number one. Opening it up as a battleground would be something else, especially since Obama has no real infrastructure there compared to the aforementioned battleground states.

[Gass3268]

Nevada because while Obama is up by3-4ish in recent polling, he'll end up winning by 5-8 because Latino's will be under polled.

[Simfan34]

NH or NV. They're more fiscally conservative than the rest of the bunch (e.g., no state income tax).

I second the opinion that OR is possibly not as safe as some folks think. If Romney wins the debates, takes a four or five point lead nationally, polling of OR will be priority number one. Opening it up as a battleground would be something else, especially since Obama has no real infrastructure there compared to the aforementioned battleground states.

I would very much like to see OR go to the GOP, just so I can have this conversation:  yeah, so the super liberal Oregon of Portland and all? Ah yeah, the red state? AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

All those hipsters, and yet you're from a state that voted for MITT ROMNEY? AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Yes, and you know what the funniest part of this is- I'm laughing at you and I'm a Republican! Yes, yes, I guess you are too!"- and I'm promptly slapped in the face.

"Dude, she was hot!" My friend inevitably says.

Yes! But the irony! Aren't dark horses fun?

...

Sadly, this shan't be happening.

[traininthedistance]

I could imagine Connecticut being way closer than people expect, just because there are so so many Wall Street types in Fairfield County, and LindaMcMahon has been carpet-bombing the state.

As for a state that would be surprisingly pro-Obama, maybe Arizona?  You've lost the favorite son effect, Carmona is running well, and the Hispanic vote will be fired up.  That should more than offset all the Mormons in Mesa.

[Niemeyerite]

Nevada, again.

[morgieb]

Nevada due to the Hispanic factor.

Other states worth mentioning:

Arizona - Hispanics, no McCain
New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey - Northeastern surburban states. Romney will do much better than McCain here, at least.
Oregon - polling has it kinda close, feel Romney won't do so bad here.
Tennessee, Arkansas - not a lot of coal influence here (iirc) and Romney ain't a Scots-Irish war veteran.
Indiana - other rust belt states show Obama not doing much worse than 2008. Should be close at least.

[SPQR]

Arizona+Tennessee on one side
Connecticut and Oregon on the other.


Doubt any of the 4 will flip though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NH or NV. They're more fiscally conservative than the rest of the bunch (e.g., no state income tax).

I second the opinion that OR is possibly not as safe as some folks think. If Romney wins the debates, takes a four or five point lead nationally, polling of OR will be priority number one. Opening it up as a battleground would be something else, especially since Obama has no real infrastructure there compared to the aforementioned battleground states.

A four or five point lead would make a lot of states look promising, like PA, MI, and maybe even MN and NM. That is hardly an "upset". That is a rising tide lifting all boats, politically speaking.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

It'll be either Nevada or Wisconsin.

[opebo]

In terms of percentage of the vote, Nevada (it'll be several points more Obama than the polls will predict), but in terms of going the way people won't really be expecting it to go, that'll be North Carolina.  Though obviously I could be wrong in that it may become accepted probability that Obama will win it as we approach election day.  (the most reasonable converse case would Iowa as someone said above, but that would take something of a reversal of recent trends over the next few weeks).

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm going with my eastern neighbor - Colorado.  The latest polls from what I'm gathering show Obama's having a tough time closing the deal here.  He still has to be considered the favorite in Colorado, but I think Romney could pull a rabbit out of his hat and steal 9 EV's from the President.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, where is Arizona?

[Vosem]

Gonna go out of the box and say Ohio. Obama's been doing significantly better there than his national average, but the state generally tilts slightly Republican, the economy here is doing poorly, Obama only did a couple points better than John Kerry in '04 (and Ohio shifted several points to McCain in the RCP average over the last week) and he's not the sort of candidate who overperforms here. Maybe Romney won't win, but I have a hunch Ohio will be closer than expected.

More mainstream, 2012 seems to be a good Republican year in Nevada; Governor Sandoval is popular and the Democratic legislature isn't (rather the reverse of Minnesota), and I think Republicans could emerge victorious there (picking up the state Senate, 3-1 congressional delegation, Heller reelected), but it's still difficult for me to imagine Romney winning Nevada but not the election as a whole.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Nevada, of course, has had a couple straight elections' worth of bad polling, so it stands out as a contender. Really, though, any state with a modern electorate armed with a greater number of smartphones than land lines has a potential for a polling flub.

[Maxwell]

Nevada. Highest unemployment rate, wouldn't be surpised of Dems there didn't show up and Romney pulled a surprise (or maybe not so surprise) victory there.

[m4567]

Gonna go out of the box and say Ohio. Obama's been doing significantly better there than his national average, but the state generally tilts slightly Republican, the economy here is doing poorly, Obama only did a couple points better than John Kerry in '04 (and Ohio shifted several points to McCain in the RCP average over the last week) and he's not the sort of candidate who overperforms here. Maybe Romney won't win, but I have a hunch Ohio will be closer than expected.

More mainstream, 2012 seems to be a good Republican year in Nevada; Governor Sandoval is popular and the Democratic legislature isn't (rather the reverse of Minnesota), and I think Republicans could emerge victorious there (picking up the state Senate, 3-1 congressional delegation, Heller reelected), but it's still difficult for me to imagine Romney winning Nevada but not the election as a whole.

Actually Ohio's economy is a whole lot better than it was. It's now around 7.2%.

[opebo]

I'm going with my eastern neighbor - Colorado.  The latest polls from what I'm gathering show Obama's having a tough time closing the deal here.  He still has to be considered the favorite in Colorado, but I think Romney could pull a rabbit out of his hat and steal 9 EV's from the President.

That's not an upset - it isn't even lean Obama on the majority of people's maps, just an outright tossup.