If you were Romney's strategist... maybe pulling out of Ohio is ok?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Now this is a far-fetched idea, but what if Romney concedes an expensive endeavor in Ohio... and pours everything he has into a campaign centered on VA, FL, IA/WI, and CO. 

Romney 273
Obama 265

Even conceding NH and NV as well, Obama doesn't win.  You send Ryan out to the Upper Midwest.  Spend your war chest in FL and VA.  Leave the election to a coin flip in CO.

I'm fully aware that it's crazy, but if I were a Romney strategist I would certainly give it thought. 

[Lief 🗽]

This is probably what he'll be doing in late October, like when McCain put all his chips on Pennsylvania in 2008.

[Wisconsin+17]

He should do what McCain did, IMHO. Bail out now, suspend his campaign and put the PACs to work for the senate and house.

[sg0508]

He can't.  There aren't enough "open" places on the map and that's partly because of the GOP closing the walls in on itself.

He cannot win without OH and he knows it.  Then again, pickups in FL, OH, IN and NC are still not enough.

[Lincoln Republican]

That map would be an absolutely amazing outcome.

The Democrats would be looking at their TV screens in shock and disbelief, there would be tears flowing, and shouts of "fraud" throughout the audience of stunned Obama believers.

[technical support]

woulda  shoulda coulda. The clock is ticking

[memphis]

This is probably what he'll be doing in late October, like when McCain put all his chips on Pennsylvania in 2008.

McCain's final push for PA was all about early voting. PA doesn't have it. He had already lost in states that did. Bizzarely, the R-PA crew here ate it up and tried desperately to convince us that PA was in play because of claims that Philadelphia wouldn't deliver for Obama and that a Bradley Effect would come into play. In reality, Obama won Philadelphia with the highest percentage ever and had the best performance statewide since Nixon's 49 state sweep in 1972.

[anvi]

Risky but not exactly crazy depending on the timing and conditions.  Aggregate polling suggests at the moment that he is in better shape in FL, VA, WI, CO and IA than in OH anyway.  But, as Lief notes, I'd wait till October and after the debates and the passage of time before I'd actually resort to a move like that.  The problem is that if Romney lifts the resources out of Ohio now and pursues a plan like that, he allows Obama to also invest more in the places where he continues to compete, and if Obama clips off only one of the remaining states, Romney ends up on the losing side of the razor's edge.  So, it's a last resort gambit.  Still, even with all the moving political pieces in American electoral politics, it's really hard for me to see a candidate on either side losing Ohio but winning Virginia, Wisconsin and Iowa.  I don't have data to back that intuition up, but it just seems to strain current possibilities.  

[DrScholl]

Ohio is a must win for a Republican. If he loses Ohio, then he's very likely not getting the swing he needs and is losing in other swing states.

[Smid]

It could backfire spectacularly - if Romney cuts his advertising budget in Ohio, the media would run the story of "given up on crucial swing state" and paint him as having already lost. That sort of negative impact on his momentum would probably offset any positive to come from having the extra dollars to spend on those other states.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It could backfire spectacularly - if Romney cuts his advertising budget in Ohio, the media would run the story of "given up on crucial swing state" and paint him as having already lost. That sort of negative impact on his momentum would probably offset any positive to come from having the extra dollars to spend on those other states.

hence... why it's crazy.  just an interesting strategic scenario IMO. 

[Thomas D]

He can't give up Ohio. His margin of error is slim enough as it is.

[Likely Voter]

I agree that the above map is Romney's most likely win scenario, but to stop spending on NH, NV and OH would essentially be seen as admitting defeat. You cant campaign with a single path to 270 and be seen as a viable candidate.

Of course WI hasn't been polled in weeks. It could be post DNC it has snapped back to lean Obama and may be just as difficult as NV, NH and OH...or possibly even back to looking like MN, PA and MI. And without WI, Romney truly has no backup plan without OH.

[Politico]

Gore abandoned OH in the last couple of weeks, after losing the debates and realizing he only had funds for FL or OH but not both, and one of these two candidates may do the same depending upon what happens in the debates, the jobs report, etc. Only a hack would say that Romney should consider dropping Ohio right now. There is an eternity between now and the debates, let alone the election itself.

Obviously Team Romney is more interested in turning Michigan gray than anything else right now. It is a state with a TON of undecideds relative to most other places. My bet: If MI, OH and FL are toss-ups after the debates, Romney will win at least two of the three and the election.

[Lief 🗽]

Obviously Team Romney is more interested in turning Michigan gray than anything else right now.

There's no evidence of this at all.

[Devils30]

Obama will win CO by a larger margin than Ohio. Mitt crashes without the Buckeye state

[Kaine for Senate '18]

My bet: If MI, OH and FL are toss-ups after the debates, Romney will win at least two of the three and the election.

You're gonna lose a lot of money on that bet.

[JFK-Democrat]

Obviously Team Romney is more interested in turning Michigan gray than anything else right now. It is a state with a TON of undecideds relative to most other places. My bet: If MI, OH and FL are toss-ups after the debates, Romney will win at least two of the three and the election.

Sorry but "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" = No Romney Michigan Win!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wish he would go after Michigan. By doing so, he would have to by necessity correct the record on the auto companies, which is just as important for Ohio. It will also require him to articulate his five point plan in terms of its impact on manufacturing. Whatever he would have to do for MI, is the same as what has to be done for Ohio, only twice as much. They also overlap in media markets slightly, and any message aimed at Detroit metro can be aimed at Toledo or Cleveland.