NBC/Marist: Obama with decent leads in Ohio, Virginia and Florida

[NHI]

Romney needs to win the debates, otherwise here comes four more years...

[pa2011]

Romney can't afford to lose any of these states, especially FL. He is just fighting on too many fronts for this stage of the campaign. He needs a game changer. Maybe the first debate can do it, but that puts a lot of pressure on one night and his campaign is really blowing the expectations game on that.

Recall a few months ago, after Romney sealed GOP nomination, all the talk that Florida was already "out of reach" for Obama. Same goes for North Carolina after the same-sex marriage decision. Obama has so far been surprisingly resilient. The only potential swing state a year ago where Obama does not seem competitive or ahead is Arizona.  Think there may be different factors at work in different states. Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina think everyone is forgetting to factor demographic shifts into stale views of state voting pattern in likely high-turnout elections. Also, unfortunately, wonder if religion isn't somehow shaving a point of GOP margins. And after so many elections of average black turnout, think its clear the GOP is once again going to have factor an energized black turnout into equations, which may also make prior assumptions about a state's politics somewhat off.

[pa2011]

Would like to see more polling out of Virginia. In most polls that are universally viewed as somewhat credible, he's been ahead all year now, except maybe one or two. If things don't tighten up in Virginia, it's almost as if it could be switched to lean Obama, especially considering he won it in 2008 by a larger margin than he won Ohio. Think only reason its still viewed as toss up is because of its history.Valid reason, but at some point the question may need to be asked whether its toss up status is still valid.

[Eraserhead]

Bounce from the DNC, and being attributed to Clinton's speech.  Tracking might be showing that this is waning.

Never change, JJ. Don't you dare ever change.

[MorningInAmerica]

The likely voter sample is D+10. 38% Democrat, 28% Republican. I wouldn't expect Romney to be leading in such a situation.

[Niemeyerite]

The likely voter sample is D+10. 38% Democrat, 28% Republican. I wouldn't expect Romney to be leading in such a situation.

Even if it's D+3, Obama would be leading. Good news for Romney, I suppose.

[pbrower2a]

Decent leads? At this stage those are huge.

The three states are different enough that no single pitch can move them without pulling the US as a whole. Barack has largely done that; Mitt Romney has shown that he can't. Ohio is the electorally-large state closest to being a microcosm of America, as shown in its voting history. Not since at least 1944 has it been far off the national norm (when it was about R+5). The calendar is becoming the ally of President Obama at this stage.

Mitt Romney has his work cut out. A 7% lead in July doesn't count for much. A 7% lead in mid-September is solid, and the only question is how valid the polling is. There just are no untapped reservoirs of right-leaning voters to be found. The Republicans lined them up early.

[MorningInAmerica]

The Hill's Christian Heinze suggests these polls have some big caveats with them. Apparently, NBC/Marist has been quite pro-Obama this year, more so than the norm.
http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/09/be-skeptical-about-latest-batch-of.html

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[Badger]

It's over.

Hardly.