VA: Public Policy Polling: Obama continues to lead in Virginia

[RI]

New Poll: Virginia President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-08-19

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, I: 0%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

With Virgil Goode included, it's:

Obama 50
Romney 42
Goode 4
Undecided 4

[pepper11]

Thats +3 for Romney from last month.  PPP has shown very good numbers for Obama in VA this year.

[Person Man]

Switching over to the LV model might do that.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I can see Obama probably winning Virginia by 3-5 points this November.

[MorningInAmerica]

Party ID of this LIKELY VOTER sample is D+7. In 2008, it was D+6

[Supersonic]

Party ID of this LIKELY VOTER sample is D+7. In 2008, it was D+6

Haha, PPP fail.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Party ID of this LIKELY VOTER sample is D+7. In 2008, it was D+6

Haha, PPP fail.

More people CALLED THEMSELVES DEMOCRATS in this poll. They may not be registered democrats.

[Umengus]

Romney wins I voters by 3... (but lose I voters at national level by 11...). PPP fail !

[Supersonic]

Party ID of this LIKELY VOTER sample is D+7. In 2008, it was D+6

Haha, PPP fail.

More people CALLED THEMSELVES DEMOCRATS in this poll. They may not be registered democrats.

Now now, there is no need for the caps lock screaming.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney wins I voters by 3... (but lose I voters at national level by 11...). PPP fail !

Uh, Obama only won Virginia independents by 1% in 2008 while winning the state by 7% and winning independents nationally by 8%. There's really nothing "fail [sic]" about this.

[Niemeyerite]

Virginia will go to Obama, and will be more democrat than Wisconsin. Who would have guessed that in 2004?

[Miles]

But I thought Ryan was going to blaze a path to victory in states like these

[krazen1211]

Plausible. Need to kick that no Goode off the ballot.

[President von Cat]

Plausible. Need to kick that no Goode off the ballot.

Yeah, just as you need to make sure that minorities are 'quarantined'.

Pennsylvania Republicans - in favor of democracy.. when it suits them.

[Sbane]

This election confuses me.

[Umengus]

Romney wins I voters by 3... (but lose I voters at national level by 11...). PPP fail !

Uh, Obama only won Virginia independents by 1% in 2008 while winning the state by 7% and winning independents nationally by 8%. There's really nothing "fail [sic]" about this.

difference between I voters in VA and at national level :

2008: +7 more republican
2012 (ppp poll): +14 more republican

so... yes, ppp fail

In 2012, I think that if Romney wins Independents in VA, he will win VA.

[Niemeyerite]

Romney wins I voters by 3... (but lose I voters at national level by 11...). PPP fail !

Uh, Obama only won Virginia independents by 1% in 2008 while winning the state by 7% and winning independents nationally by 8%. There's really nothing "fail [sic]" about this.

difference between I voters in VA and at national level :

2008: +7 more republican
2012 (ppp poll): +14 more republican

so... yes, ppp fail

In 2012, I think that if Romney wins Independents in VA, he will win VA.

Have you ever heard of something called margin of error?

[opebo]

But I thought Ryan was going to blaze a path to victory in states like these

No, his path is WI, IA, CO, FL, and possibly OH.  He's not really a good fit in VA or NH.

[anvi]

Well, Obama has an electoral base of 241, assuming he can count on Michigan and New Hampshire.  If he can keep Virginia and Ohio, that puts him over even if he loses Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.  Romney seems to struggle in Virginia, even if Goode isn't included in the race.  That sort of, in an electoral sense, makes Ohio ground zero of the battle for Obama, because, if Obama wins Virginia but loses Ohio, he has to hold on to, for instance, Wisconsin and Colorado or Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada.  The more I think about it, the more it occurs to me that picking Ryan was, in an electoral sense anyway, very deft of Romney, because putting Wisconsin in play makes Obama's electoral strategy more precarious.   

[opebo]

The more I think about it, the more it occurs to me that picking Ryan was, in an electoral sense anyway, very deft of Romney, because putting Wisconsin in play makes Obama's electoral strategy more precarious.   

Precisely and good post.  He's also a help in Ohio, Iowa, and possibly Florida.  Swing voters in VA and NH are less emotional and more educated than in the above states, so they'll probably be less tempted by Ryan's abuse.