I don't think this gets enough attention...

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

Let's talk about some of the biggest trends in the country. There has been a rightward trend throughout the midsouth in the last two elections in WV, KY, TN, AR, LA, and OK while there has been a leftward trend in VT, CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, DE, MD, and ME. It seems like after the next few elections these will be the bluest and reddest areas of our country. Are there agreements, disagreements, comments, or thoughts?  I wouldn't say that the mid-south has changed for example but they now vote for the more socially conservative party. Population has had something to do with it too. We've seen a moderate leftward trend in VA, NC, and GA; states that are gaining people from the northeast. Who wants to talk about this?

[5280]

I would like to add this, which states have a moderate trend to the right?  Seems like people mention the southwest has a leftward trend, along with VA, NC and GA.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I would like to add this, which states have a moderate trend to the right?  Seems like people mention the southwest has a leftward trend, along with VA, NC and GA.

Well, perhaps PA and FL but from what I can see they're basically the same as they've always been. In 2004, PA was 6 points left of center but only 4 points left of center in 2008. Meanwhile FL was 2 points to the right in 2004 and 4 points to the right in 2008. Ohio was interesting as well last time. In 2004, OH was one point to the left but 3 points to the right in 2008. With as close as those states usually are though, it's hard to say if that's going to last. Minnesota has been somewhat closer in the last few elections than it was in the previous 3 elections but again it was never that far to the left. One state that has had a moderate rightward trend in the last few elections though is Missouri. It's trend hasn't been as hard to the right as the states south and east of it but the trend is surely noticeable. In 1996 it was one point to the right, 4 points to the right for both Bush elections, and 7 points to the right in 2008. If I'm correct Obama and McCain tied there with Obama having an extremely small edge.  What are your thoughts and could we see a moderate rightward trend in the great lake states in the near future as population decreases and the economy changes?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The Upper South has trended Republican for three reasons:

1. The Republican Party is seen as the party of social conservatism, which many now put before their economic self-interest.
2. The modern Democratic Party is perceived as having abandoned the interests of the common man for various pet causes (which is at least partially true).
3. A lesser factor is that Obama was just a poor nominee for the region; a professorial urban black man with a funny name running against a Scots-Irish veteran.

[MorningInAmerica]

The Upper South has trended Republican for three reasons:

1. The Republican Party is seen as the party of social conservatism, which many now put before their economic self-interest.
2. The modern Democratic Party is perceived as having abandoned the interests of the common man for various pet causes (which is at least partially true).
3. A lesser factor is that Obama was just a poor nominee for the region; a professorial urban black man with a funny name running against a Scots-Irish veteran.

"Economic self interest"? http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-27/us-economic-growth-slowed-to-1-dot-5-pct-dot-rate-in-q2 Pretty warped definition of what is and isn't in ones economic "self interest."

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

True ^ I've always held that one's self-interest whether it be economics or anything is that which is self-sufficient. I'm not against social security, medicare, welfare, unemployment, food stamps, or medicaid but they shouldn't be a way of life like the Democrats want for this country. Basically their election strategy is "vote for me and I'll take someone else's money and give it to you." It's like the kid in 6th grade who ran for class president and promised more days off, extra dances, and longer lunches.

[old timey villain]

Look for a changing division in the south. Historically, when the south split its electoral votes, the divide was upper south vs lower south. We even saw that as recently as the Clinton years, when many upper south states voted for Clinton, while the deep south remained Republican (with the exception of Georgia and Louisiana, but I would argue that Louisiana's political culture is too unique to be lumped in with the south in general).

The new divide as of 2008 is coastal south vs interior south. Native southerners have been fleeing the Democratic party across the entire south. The difference now is that transplants in high growth states bordering the Atlantic have counter balanced this regional trend, while the slower growth states in the interior are becoming more and more Republican.

I still expect the south to be more Republican than the nation on average, but in some elections in the future I bet you'll see blue from Virginia to Florida while the rest of the region is red.

[Frodo]

Look for a changing division in the south. Historically, when the south split its electoral votes, the divide was upper south vs lower south. We even saw that as recently as the Clinton years, when many upper south states voted for Clinton, while the deep south remained Republican (with the exception of Georgia and Louisiana, but I would argue that Louisiana's political culture is too unique to be lumped in with the south in general).

The new divide as of 2008 is coastal south vs interior south. Native southerners have been fleeing the Democratic party across the entire south. The difference now is that transplants in high growth states bordering the Atlantic have counter balanced this regional trend, while the slower growth states in the interior are becoming more and more Republican.

I still expect the south to be more Republican than the nation on average, but in some elections in the future I bet you'll see blue from Virginia to Florida while the rest of the region is red.

In short, we can expect Democrats in the future to dominate all the states that comprised the original Thirteen Colonies.  We already have eight (and arguably nine) of them, and are competitive in two more:

[old timey villain]

^^^^^^

Basically.

Population from the northeast has been steadily trickling down through the south Atlantic region and it's changing the political culture of VA, NC, GA, SC (sort of) and of course FL.

This is the Piedmont Atlantic Megaregion. It stretches from Atlanta up to the research Triangle in Raleigh. They say it goes to Birmingham, but there aint nothing between Atlanta and Birmingham so I'm not buying that part. But from Georgia to NC, this region is rapidly developing into a mini megalopolis. You're beginning to see a significant cluster of cities, suburbs, major industries, universities and transportation networks. As the region grows, it will change the politics of these states - we've already seen that in NC -  so it will be a region that both parties will have to fight to win in the future.

[All Along The Watchtower]

True ^ I've always held that one's self-interest whether it be economics or anything is that which is self-sufficient. I'm not against social security, medicare, welfare, unemployment, food stamps, or medicaid but they shouldn't be a way of life like the Democrats want for this country. Basically their election strategy is "vote for me and I'll take someone else's money and give it to you." It's like the kid in 6th grade who ran for class president and promised more days off, extra dances, and longer lunches.

lol.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Let's talk about some of the biggest trends in the country. There has been a rightward trend throughout the midsouth in the last two elections in WV, KY, TN, AR, LA, and OK while there has been a leftward trend in VT, CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, DE, MD, and ME. It seems like after the next few elections these will be the bluest and reddest areas of our country. Are there agreements, disagreements, comments, or thoughts?  I wouldn't say that the mid-south has changed for example but they now vote for the more socially conservative party. Population has had something to do with it too. We've seen a moderate leftward trend in VA, NC, and GA; states that are gaining people from the northeast. Who wants to talk about this?

I think it's only temporary, at least for now, and that Obama has a lot to do with it.
  It will probably hold up in thr midsouth because of the social/religious conservatives, but as Latinos assimilate, states like CO, NM, and NV will become even more competitive than they are.  As for VA, NC, and GA, they might become more Dem, but it will take a while.  In-migration from the northeasy, ironically, is what helped make them more Republican in the first place.  I think Obama's strength with blacks played a factor in it too
  Also, the fastest growing parts of states like Oregon are also the most Republican, so that state may become more Republican as time goes by.