Is Obama a perennial underdog?

[old timey villain]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

1) "Obama will never win the Democratic nomination. The Clintons are just too powerful."

2) "Obama can't win the presidency. McCain is an American hero and plus the Bradley effect!!!!"

3) (After Scott Brown is elected) "Well healthcare is dead. No way Obama can get it passed now."

4) "Obama is so weak on defense. No way will he get anything done foreign policy wise."
            *Cue Bin Laden*

5) "No way the Supreme Court will uphold Obamacare"

5) "Obama can't win reelection. He's vulnerable."

so, is there a chance Obama could fool us all and win reelection fairly easily?

[BritishDixie]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

1) "Obama will never win the Democratic nomination. The Clintons are just too powerful."

2) "Obama can't win the presidency. McCain is an American hero and plus the Bradley effect!!!!"

3) (After Scott Brown is elected) "Well healthcare is dead. No way Obama can get it passed now."

4) "Obama is so weak on defense. No way will he get anything done foreign policy wise."
            *Cue Bin Laden*

5) "No way the Supreme Court will uphold Obamacare"

5) "Obama can't win reelection. He's vulnerable."

so, is there a chance Obama could fool us all and win reelection fairly easily?

1. I guess that's correct.

2. I don't recall this. McCain was always the underdog, aside from the moment he picked Palin as his VP, where he overtook Obama by about 2 points.

3. Obama still had majorities in both houses of congress, he could fairly easily have passed the bill.

4. He has accomplished very little in foreign policy. Any President would have ordered the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

5. We'll just have to wait and see.

[old timey villain]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

1) "Obama will never win the Democratic nomination. The Clintons are just too powerful."

2) "Obama can't win the presidency. McCain is an American hero and plus the Bradley effect!!!!"

3) (After Scott Brown is elected) "Well healthcare is dead. No way Obama can get it passed now."

4) "Obama is so weak on defense. No way will he get anything done foreign policy wise."
            *Cue Bin Laden*

5) "No way the Supreme Court will uphold Obamacare"

6) "Obama can't win reelection. He's vulnerable."

so, is there a chance Obama could fool us all and win reelection fairly easily?

1. I guess that's correct.

2. I don't recall this. McCain was always the underdog, aside from the moment he picked Palin as his VP, where he overtook Obama by about 2 points.

3. Obama still had majorities in both houses of congress, he could fairly easily have passed the bill.

4. He has accomplished very little in foreign policy. Any President would have ordered the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

5. We'll just have to wait and see.

to elaborate on some of the valid points you made

2) The democratic party always had the advantage in the election, but before the financial collapse, I definitely recall the press constantly talking about Obama's lead possibly being misleading due to a Bradley Effect.

3) But Scott Brown filling Kennedy's seat ended the Democrats' filibuster proof majority. With 59 seats instead of 60, the Republicans now had a chance to use tactics to stop the bill. And even then, there were many Democratic senators who were unsure about voting to the PPACA at that point.

4) I don't disagree, but the fact of the matter is that Obama was the one who got Bin Laden, while Bush (who placed much more importance on it) never got him. Maybe it was a lucky break, but it certainly took the wind out of his opponents 'surefire' arguments that as a Democrat Obama doesn't care about protecting America.

Whoops, I listed 5 twice. I assume your last point has to do with Obama's reelection. And yes, we will have to wait and see. Maybe Romney will be the one to surprise us all. But my overall point is, don't count Obama out when he's down. It seems that's when he does his best.

[WhyteRain]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

He couldn't outfox a baked potato.  The Obama Mania Media combined with massive amounts of money defeated the Clintons and then McCain.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who would he be fooling but me?  It seems I'm the only active commenter predicting a blowout against him.  All the Democrats are predicting an easy or close victory for him while all the Republicans are predicting a close loss or win for their guy.  Am I wrong about that -- Is there anyone else here (actively commenting) who's predicting a landslide loss for Obama?

[BritishDixie]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

1) "Obama will never win the Democratic nomination. The Clintons are just too powerful."

2) "Obama can't win the presidency. McCain is an American hero and plus the Bradley effect!!!!"

3) (After Scott Brown is elected) "Well healthcare is dead. No way Obama can get it passed now."

4) "Obama is so weak on defense. No way will he get anything done foreign policy wise."
            *Cue Bin Laden*

5) "No way the Supreme Court will uphold Obamacare"

6) "Obama can't win reelection. He's vulnerable."

so, is there a chance Obama could fool us all and win reelection fairly easily?

1. I guess that's correct.

2. I don't recall this. McCain was always the underdog, aside from the moment he picked Palin as his VP, where he overtook Obama by about 2 points.

3. Obama still had majorities in both houses of congress, he could fairly easily have passed the bill.

4. He has accomplished very little in foreign policy. Any President would have ordered the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

5. We'll just have to wait and see.

to elaborate on some of the valid points you made

2) The democratic party always had the advantage in the election, but before the financial collapse, I definitely recall the press constantly talking about Obama's lead possibly being misleading due to a Bradley Effect.

3) But Scott Brown filling Kennedy's seat ended the Democrats' filibuster proof majority. With 59 seats instead of 60, the Republicans now had a chance to use tactics to stop the bill. And even then, there were many Democratic senators who were unsure about voting to the PPACA at that point.

4) I don't disagree, but the fact of the matter is that Obama was the one who got Bin Laden, while Bush (who placed much more importance on it) never got him. Maybe it was a lucky break, but it certainly took the wind out of his opponents 'surefire' arguments that as a Democrat Obama doesn't care about protecting America.

Whoops, I listed 5 twice. I assume your last point has to do with Obama's reelection. And yes, we will have to wait and see. Maybe Romney will be the one to surprise us all. But my overall point is, don't count Obama out when he's down. It seems that's when he does his best.

True, true. I may not like Obama but he's probably the best campaigner we've had since Clinton.

[mondale84]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

He couldn't outfox a baked potato.  The Obama Mania Media combined with massive amounts of money defeated the Clintons and then McCain.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who would he be fooling but me?  It seems I'm the only active commenter predicting a blowout against him.  All the Democrats are predicting an easy or close victory for him while all the Republicans are predicting a close loss or win for their guy.  Am I wrong about that -- Is there anyone else here (actively commenting) who's predicting a landslide loss for Obama?

No and that's why many here think you're a troll.

[Lincoln Republican]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

He couldn't outfox a baked potato.  The Obama Mania Media combined with massive amounts of money defeated the Clintons and then McCain.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who would he be fooling but me?  It seems I'm the only active commenter predicting a blowout against him.  All the Democrats are predicting an easy or close victory for him while all the Republicans are predicting a close loss or win for their guy.  Am I wrong about that -- Is there anyone else here (actively commenting) who's predicting a landslide loss for Obama?

There is not going to be a landslide win for either candidate.

[Rooney]

The answer is, of course, "no" but the president does a really great job pretending that the answer is "yes." In 1996 he ran unopposed for the Illinois State Senate after Senator Palmer failed to get enough signatures. In 2000 he was hardly the underdog against Congressman Rush because one must stand a chance of getting 30% of the vote to be considered an "underdog." In 2004 Obama won the senate race because his Democratic opponents (Dan Hynes and Blair Hull) did a good job destroying one another and his general election Republican opponents (Jack Ryan and Alan Keyes) did the same thing.

In terms of 2008 one could argue he was the underdog but how many underdogs generally have the favorable media coverage given him (I guess Scott Brown might also qualify). No, I do not think he has ever been an underdog at any point in his career. As a likable, well spoken and highly educated family man Barack Obama has entered almost every fray as the front-runner, as he is on the last day of June 2012...even though Comrade Axelrod is performing the usual act that Obama is the underdog.   

[WhyteRain]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

He couldn't outfox a baked potato.  The Obama Mania Media combined with massive amounts of money defeated the Clintons and then McCain.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who would he be fooling but me?  It seems I'm the only active commenter predicting a blowout against him.  All the Democrats are predicting an easy or close victory for him while all the Republicans are predicting a close loss or win for their guy.  Am I wrong about that -- Is there anyone else here (actively commenting) who's predicting a landslide loss for Obama?

No and that's why many here think you're a troll.

If so, that's strange reasoning.

I guess it's a good thing I wasn't here three years ago when within six months of Obama's inauguration I was picking the GOP to win back the House in 2010.  Now that was a really "trollie" prediction.

[milhouse24]

Obama won Iowa because he bussed in hundreds of volunteers from Chicago who may or may not have voted in the caucuses.

[Cory]

To be honest, looking at his past I think it's fair to say that Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries was probably the toughest opponent he's faced politically.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Obama will always be the underdog with 8% Unemployment. 7.9 and below he's all but guaranteed re-election, 8.3 and above, he's screwed.

[rwoy]

I have to strongly disagree with this one.  Of the 4 major campaigns of his life the only one in which Obama wasn't a heavy favorite was vs Hillary.  Keyes was a joke.  McCain was an old man hampered by the disaster which was Sarah Palin and forced to carry the baggage of the Bush administration.  Romney is a Republican John Kerry.

So yeah ... Obama is an underdog the same way that New England Patriots are underdogs.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It seems like for as long as Obama has been on the national stage, people have underestimated him, only to outfox them in the end.

1) "Obama will never win the Democratic nomination. The Clintons are just too powerful."

2) "Obama can't win the presidency. McCain is an American hero and plus the Bradley effect!!!!"

3) (After Scott Brown is elected) "Well healthcare is dead. No way Obama can get it passed now."

4) "Obama is so weak on defense. No way will he get anything done foreign policy wise."
            *Cue Bin Laden*

5) "No way the Supreme Court will uphold Obamacare"

5) "Obama can't win reelection. He's vulnerable."

so, is there a chance Obama could fool us all and win reelection fairly easily?

1. I guess that's correct.

2. I don't recall this. McCain was always the underdog, aside from the moment he picked Palin as his VP, where he overtook Obama by about 2 points.

True. Many people are now forgetting Obama was consistently leading over McCain even before economic collapse.

I have to strongly disagree with this one.  Of the 4 major campaigns of his life the only one in which Obama wasn't a heavy favorite was vs Hillary.  Keyes was a joke.  McCain was an old man hampered by the disaster which was Sarah Palin and forced to carry the baggage of the Bush administration.  Romney is a Republican John Kerry.

So yeah ... Obama is an underdog the same way that New England Patriots are underdogs.

2008 primaries were a perfect example of good, far-looking strategy and perfect timing.

Hillary basically took it for granted, expecting she'll be the nominee after few initial states. Thus, she failed to built a proper infrastructure in most of the states, while Obama team already handled it. Hillary became an underdog the moment she lost in Iowa, but managed to hold on until very last state.

There is not going to be a landslide win for either candidate.

I fully agree.