State of the race

[Person Man]

Well, I would say that if Obama loses, it will probably be this-


Romney isn't charismatic enough to pull a Reagan or Clinton, but he may pull a Carter-

Its just that Romney just isn't the phenomenon that Clinton, Reagan or Obama were...he's more like Dole, Kerry or maybe Carter...

The states that will put Romney over will be Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada and Wisconsin. Romney will get to 51.5-47 and these guys will be less Republican, but go for him.

If things get better, it will put Democrats between a rock and a hard place. They might run out of what little support they have left on SCOTUS and be totally discredited...if things start picking up. If not, there's going to a Democratic Populist that will do slightly better than Obama did in 2008 in 2016.

[WhyteRain]

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

Who among Romney's GOP rivals would you have considered a "quality candidate" with whom "I can live with defeating Obama"?  (No making up candidates who didn't run.  Or Huntsman since he was an exact clone of Romney.)

[WhyteRain]

So for all you armchair economists out there: what's going to happen next? Are we in for a double dip or is this a temporary bump?

I'm an investor, and in 2009 and 2010 I was telling friends to buy oil -- I recall saying to one, "You'll never go broke buying $30 a barrel oil".

Just recently I told a different friend, "You'll never go broke buying $28 silver".

Anyway, my best advice ... well, it depends on your age, but protect yourself by investing in the companies that make the things you use -- especially energy and food -- and hedge for general inflation by having at least 10% of your portfolio in precious metals.

Like everyone else, I'm shocked at bond yields.  The American and German ones, that is.

[WhyteRain]

This is what happened the last time a President ran for re-election with job numbers worse than Obama's.

This year the failed states that are bleeding economic refugees won't beat the successful ones that are accepting them.  See http://interactive.taxfoundation.org/migration/

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Just recently I told a different friend, "You'll never go broke buying $28 silver".

Good to see that you have confidence that the economy is going to do well.  In periods of economic distress the ratio of gold to silver has historically increased due to the drop in the industrial demand for silver.  If the economy goes bust, then for silver to increase from $28 is going to require that gold go to $3000 or more, and I don't see the inflationary pressure being there to cause that sort of hike if the economy goes bust.

My own personal belief is that long-term gold will settle at around $1000 and silver at $20.  While still well above where they were a few years ago, those prices aren't going to make buying silver at $28 profitable.

[Donerail]

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

Who among Romney's GOP rivals would you have considered a "quality candidate" with whom "I can live with defeating Obama"?  (No making up candidates who didn't run.  Or Huntsman since he was an exact clone of Romney.)

Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, Stewart Greenleaf, Jimmy McMillan, maybe T-Paw.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

Who among Romney's GOP rivals would you have considered a "quality candidate" with whom "I can live with defeating Obama"?  (No making up candidates who didn't run.  Or Huntsman since he was an exact clone of Romney.)

Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, Stewart Greenleaf, Jimmy McMillan, maybe T-Paw.

What?

[Donerail]

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

Who among Romney's GOP rivals would you have considered a "quality candidate" with whom "I can live with defeating Obama"?  (No making up candidates who didn't run.  Or Huntsman since he was an exact clone of Romney.)

Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, Stewart Greenleaf, Jimmy McMillan, maybe T-Paw.

What?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg5SwyTvAHw

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

Who among Romney's GOP rivals would you have considered a "quality candidate" with whom "I can live with defeating Obama"?  (No making up candidates who didn't run.  Or Huntsman since he was an exact clone of Romney.)

Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, Stewart Greenleaf, Jimmy McMillan, maybe T-Paw.

What?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg5SwyTvAHw

I know who he is, but he wasn't one of Romney's opponents. I would vote for him, though.

[Donerail]

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

Who among Romney's GOP rivals would you have considered a "quality candidate" with whom "I can live with defeating Obama"?  (No making up candidates who didn't run.  Or Huntsman since he was an exact clone of Romney.)

Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, Stewart Greenleaf, Jimmy McMillan, maybe T-Paw.

What?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg5SwyTvAHw

I know who he is, but he wasn't one of Romney's opponents. I would vote for him, though.

He ran as a Republican in order to avoid a challenge from Obama.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2010/12/now-ive-heard-it-all-from-jimmy-mcmillan-updated
http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2012/01/jimmy_mcmillan_6.php

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

Who among Romney's GOP rivals would you have considered a "quality candidate" with whom "I can live with defeating Obama"?  (No making up candidates who didn't run.  Or Huntsman since he was an exact clone of Romney.)

Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, Stewart Greenleaf, Jimmy McMillan, maybe T-Paw.

What?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg5SwyTvAHw

I know who he is, but he wasn't one of Romney's opponents. I would vote for him, though.

He ran as a Republican in order to avoid a challenge from Obama.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2010/12/now-ive-heard-it-all-from-jimmy-mcmillan-updated
http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2012/01/jimmy_mcmillan_6.php

Oh. He could have been a FOTM!

[old timey villain]

One the economy, do you think maybe weak jobs numbers are payback for what happened in the winter? Basically, the winter job growth was overestimated and the past few months' job growth has been underestimated. It's certainly possible.

We'll have to wait until the next jobs report to see if this is true. Europe is a thorn in our side, but we've managed to chug along the past few years despite headwinds. I predict modest economic growth for the rest of the year, and then a modest Obama win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama will win kerry gore plus ia and nm and wi 253.  3 scenarios to get to 270.  Add oh 18 271.  Add co nv and nh 272. Add va and nh 270. It looks now obama may very well barely make it to 270.