UK 2005- Seat by Seat Part 5 (East Anglia)

[Silent Hunter]

Here we go.

With the fox-hunting ban coming in February, any Labour MP outside a major urban conurbation or town with a majority under 5,000 is at serious risk of a defeat.

Constituency MP Name Party Prediction 
Bedford  Patrick Hall  LAB Hold
Bedfordshire Mid  Jonathan Sayeed  CON Hold
Bedfordshire North East  Alastair Burt  CON Hold
Bedfordshire South West  Andrew Selous  CON Hold
Bury St Edmunds  David Ruffley  CON Hold
Cambridge  Anne Campbell  LAB Hold : Most of the student body is probably registered elsewhere. Even so, Campbell's anti-war stance makes this a lock.
Cambridgeshire North East  Malcolm Moss  CON Hold
Cambridgeshire North West  Sir Brian Mawhinney  CON Hold
Cambridgeshire South  Andrew Lansley  CON Hold
Cambridgeshire South East  James Paice  CON Hold
Corby  Phil Hope  LAB Hold: It's a former steel town, the rural vote won't swing it.
Daventry  Tim Boswell  CON Hold
Great Yarmouth  Tony Wright  LAB Hold: The hunting ban could be a problem and he might just lose this.
Huntingdon  Jonathan Djanogly  CON Hold
Ipswich  Chris Mole  LAB Hold: Mole was elected in November 2001 after the death of Jamie Cann. He'll have no problems retaining this seat.
Kettering  Philip Sawford  LAB CON Gain
Luton North  Kelvin Hopkins  LAB Hold
Luton South  Margaret Moran  LAB Hold
Norfolk Mid  Keith Simpson  CON Hold
Norfolk North  Norman Lamb  LIB Hold: The Libs won by 483 last time, with Labour 3rd placing. This will probably happen again.
Norfolk North West  Henry Bellingham  CON Hold
Norfolk South  Richard Bacon  CON Hold
Norfolk South West  Gillian Shephard  CON Hold
Northampton North  Sally Keeble  LAB Hold
Northampton South  Tony Clarke  CON Gain
Norwich North  Ian Gibson  LAB Hold
Norwich South  Charles Clarke  LAB Hold: A small anti top-up fees vote from UEA residents to the Lib Dems, but not sufficient.
Peterborough  Helen Brinton  CON gain from LAB: Peterborough is the name of the Daily Mail's letters and humour page- it is supposed to typify Middle England. Brinton has a majority of less than 3,000 and that puts her in the fox-hunting danger zone. This is 43 on the Tory target list and was Tory in 1992. Freak pick-up? Possibly- it went Tory in 1966.
Suffolk Central and Ipswich North  Michael Lord  CON Hold
Suffolk Coastal  John Gummer  CON Hold
Suffolk South  Tim Yeo  CON Hold
Suffolk West  Richard Spring  CON Hold
Waveney  Bob Blizzard  LAB Hold
Wellingborough  Paul Stinchcombe  LAB Hold

Any retirees let me know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cambridge: What most people aren't aware, is that the boundaries of the Cambridge City Council (LD run) and the parliamentary seat aren't the same. Some affluent LibDem wards aren't in the parliamentary seat. Could be close though.

Corby: Corby itself is a rock solid Labour town (like you say, it used to have big Steelworks. Some locals still have Scottish accents), the rural areas in the seat make it winnable for the Tories is in good years for them. 2005 does not look like a good year for the Tories.

Daventry: A misnamed seat... Daventry (home to a large Brum overspill population) itself actually leans towards Labour. The rural areas are ultra-tory (full of London commuters etc, etc).

Kettering: Not to be confused with the pre-83 Kettering (a safe Labour seat which included Corby), this seat has a natural Tory lean. From what I hear, Sawford is a good constituency M.P, but he's very left wing and in a very marginal seat.

Norfolk North: Tories running a star candidate. He's also gay, which could counts against him in Norfolk. Close either way.

Norwich South: Actually extends in a suspiciously gerrymandered way (seriously!) out of Norwich CC. Clarke telling Charlie boy were to f*** off should gain him some extra votes anyway...

Wellingborough: Stinchcombe is a nice guy and a good constituency M.P. I hope he pulls this off...

[English]

Labour will do badly here. They hold 3 seats by tiny majorities, all of which I reckon they'll lose. Kettering, Wellingborough and Northampton South are certain gains for the Tories.
They might also lose Great Yarmouth.
Corby, Northampton North, Cambridge, Norwich Nth/Sth, Ipswich, Waveney and Bedford are certain holds. All of these seats are 'urban' or majority urban and trending Labour. Wellingborough town is fairly labour inclined, however the big rural inclusion will easily swing this for the Tories, same with Yarmouth.

[Ben.]

Labour will do badly here. They hold 3 seats by tiny majorities, all of which I reckon they'll lose. Kettering, Wellingborough and Northampton South are certain gains for the Tories.
They might also lose Great Yarmouth.
Corby, Northampton North, Cambridge, Norwich Nth/Sth, Ipswich, Waveney and Bedford are certain holds. All of these seats are 'urban' or majority urban and trending Labour. Wellingborough town is fairly labour inclined, however the big rural inclusion will easily swing this for the Tories, same with Yarmouth.

Cambridge and Corby are not certain but Labour will hold both, the rural element will make Corby close but Cambridge will annoy LD by seeing little significant change  

[Silent Hunter]

Updated. Feel free to throughly debate Peterborough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Possibly- it went Tory in 1966.

By the smallest margin in Post War politics believe it or not. Mind you the constituency boundaries were different then (it included more rural areas) but it's traditionally a close seat

[Ben.]

Wllingborough won't stay Labour, Northampshire got a lot of help from the national Labour Party, this time around there are bigger fish to fry and ever seat save Corby and Northampton North will go back to the Tories IMHO.

[minionofmidas]

Possibly- it went Tory in 1966.

By the smallest margin in Post War politics believe it or not. Mind you the constituency boundaries were different then (it included more rural areas) but it's traditionally a close seat

That would be by a single vote? Since Winchester went LD by two votes in 1997.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Possibly- it went Tory in 1966.

By the smallest margin in Post War politics believe it or not. Mind you the constituency boundaries were different then (it included more rural areas) but it's traditionally a close seat

That would be by a single vote? Since Winchester went LD by two votes in 1997.

By three votes. Winchester 97 was declared null and void and a by-election (which the LibDem won by a landslide) was held.

[Ben.]

Possibly- it went Tory in 1966.

By the smallest margin in Post War politics believe it or not. Mind you the constituency boundaries were different then (it included more rural areas) but it's traditionally a close seat

That would be by a single vote? Since Winchester went LD by two votes in 1997.

By three votes. Winchester 97 was declared null and void and a by-election (which the LibDem won by a landslide) was held.

It did give us Mark Oaten one of the few LD i have any time for, despite his flip-flopping (Renard's decision i expect) on ASBOs (rather like Kennedy over the Post Office).

[Peter]

According to this, Peterborough in 1966 is the joint-third smallest majority since 1918.

[Silent Hunter]

Peterborough is reportedly turning quite nasty.

Daily Mail claimed the Tory candidate is suing the Labour one for libel.

[Rural Radical]

Just a few of my predictions

Northampton South - LAB Hold. If Labour hold this seat even by a few hundred votes they will hold it longterm after the boundary changes come in (the review is putting an extra seat into northamptonshire cutting of all the rural parts of northampton South and creating 2 safe tory seats in the county).

Peterborough - LAB Hold. Admitadly not my favourite LAB MP but the seat is not rural and is basically a LAB seat except for Werrington.

Norfolk NorthWest- Will this swing back to LAB ? Was it a foot and mouth seat ?