Estimate the Reaction of the Following Groups to an Israeli Strike

[Beet]

What would the reaction of the following groups be, to an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities?

[1] The United States- would the US join Israel or stand aside?

[2] World Opinion- Europe, the UN, Latin America, Russia, China, India, Africa. Is it seen as a necessary war to stop a terrorist regime from acquiring nuclear weapons, or a terroristic act that requires Israel to be censured?

[3] Sunni Opinion- What would be the reaction of the Arab street? Would Egyptian protesters storm the Israeli embassy? What is the reaction of Saudi Arabia? Does the Arab antipathy to Iran as a Shia power or Israel as a Jewish power greater? If the latter, could it dampen sectarian tensions?

[4] Shiia Opinion (outside Iran)- What is the reaction of the Syrian government, Hezbollah, the 60% Shiia majority Iraq, the Shiia majority in Bahrain (home of the US 7th fleet), and the Shiia majority in the Saudi Eastern oilfields? Will these groups seethe quietly in anger, or rise up?

[5] Opinion within Iran. Does the rally-around-Khamenei effect dominate all, or is there a chance that people turn against the regime if it becomes clear they are losing the war? What about the Zorastrians and other minorities in Iran?

[Silent Hunter]

I'm doing a military roleplay where this happens and so I've thought about this.

It would depend on a lot of things - the Iranian reaction for one thing and how well the Israelis were able to defend their actions.

If Iran were to close the Straits of Hormuz, I imagine that the GCC would be involved, along with the US (at least) to reopen it - Oman, the state on the other side is a GCC member.

[2952-0-0]

It could very well be as embarrassing to the US as the Suez crisis was to Britain and France. My gut feeling is that the hawks in Washington and Tel Aviv just don't get it just as Eden didn't get it.

From the Ayatollahs' perspective they know they don't have to seriously use military force when there are many options available to frustrate their enemies.

[Insula Dei]

It'd be a PR disaster and would probably make most players in the region forget for a moment how much they hate Iran in order to focus on how much they hate Israel.

Also, the 'Arab Street' is an idiotic expression introduced by a bigot, please don't use it.

[dead0man]

It really depends on how well it goes and how long it lasts.  If it's an afternoon and evening of bomb dropping and then it's over, the usual suspects will bitch and moan, Muslim protesters will die in a dozen countries, but nothing much.  And I don't really see how it could be anything but that.  There isn't going to be a ground war.  There isn't going to be an occupation.

[Redalgo]

I really lack the experience and education to make confident predictions, but I reckon...

[1] The U.S. would support Israel in terms of rhetoric but only pitch in militarily if Iran declares war on Israel. Perhaps there would be missile strikes from American air and naval forces but my guess is that the current administration would be pretty averse to launching any ground invasion without amassing multilaterial support and finding ways to offload part of the cost and responsibility to allied nations. Obama is likely to juggle realist and idealist considerations.

[2] A lot of people do not want Iran to possess nuclear weapons, but I think hostile unilateral actions on the part of Israel would seem overly-aggressive and militarist to much of the global community. Diplomatic options are not wholly exhausted, and as such it wouldn't surprise me if Israel's image abroad were to be substantially tarnished by such a raid.

[3] Mixed, but predominately negative reaction from Sunnis in West Asia and North Africa, I expect. Among Arab nationalists and religious hardliners I suspect the attack would be seen as an extension of Euro-American imperialism in the region and as a serious affront against Iranian sovereignty. The Saudi regime would be relatively mellow about the whole thing, but I do think it would put more strain on the religious factions in the region - especially if other West Asian states do not rush to Iran's side and contribute to its response against Israel.

[4] I am so unfamiliar with Shiia interests that I am not even going to guess. O.o

[5] Within Iran, I think there would be a predominately negative response since a lot of folks there believe it is the right of the Iranian regime to have nuclear weapons - especially for the purpose of deterring Western states from using hard power as leverage against their country. Israeli military dominance in the region, combined with their nuclear arsenal, might make it easy for leaders in Iran to rally a temporary surge in support - or at least redirect some of the people's resentment away from themselves and toward Israel. On the other hand, I suppose it would depend on how much the violence escalates - if at all - in the days and weeks that follow.

I could easily be far off base with these responses though, and I'm very curious to read what others think about the subject.

[Silent Hunter]

It really depends on how well it goes and how long it lasts.  If it's an afternoon and evening of bomb dropping and then it's over, the usual suspects will bitch and moan, Muslim protesters will die in a dozen countries, but nothing much.  And I don't really see how it could be anything but that.  There isn't going to be a ground war.  There isn't going to be an occupation.

Israel has also done this sort of thing twice before with no lasting ill-effects.

1) I doubt there would be a land invasion of Iran - but a coordinated air strike campaign, definitely. Especially if the Straits were closed.

[Sbane]

An air strike against Iran would lead to world opinion being against Israel. The consequences of that would depend on how long the bombing campaign lasts. If it's only a few days then no big deal.

If Iran decides to close the straits of Hormuz, world opinion will swing against them, and fast. China and India need their oil. Anything compromising that will piss them of to no end. But without that I would guess both those countries would be against the military strikes.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

USA - Pretend to be upset, but not really be upset

World - Really be upset.

Sunni - Threaten to, or actually, commit acts of violence and/or take lives, as a "valid" way to express anger.

Shiia - See above

Iran - See above